Introduction Chapter 1. Continuity and Change Futuring Principle 1: The future will be some unknown combination of continuity and change. Time's Arrow Time's Target: The Future Chaos, Chance, and Randomness Time as Both Continuity and Discontinuity A Case Study: Continuity and Change in the European Union Chapter 2. Anticipating the Future Futuring Principle 2: The future can be anticipated with varying degrees of uncertainty depending upon conditions. Uncertainty in Time and the Future Theoretical Sources of Predictability Revelation and Divination Laws of Nature Trend Momentum Cause-and-Effect Relationships and Sequences Closed Systems and Fixed Sets Knowledge of Intentions Self-Fulfilling Prophecies A Case Study: Trends in American Consumer Value to 2050 Chapter 3. Futuring and Visioning Futuring Principle 3: Futuring and visioning are different but complementary perspectives of the future. Millett's Hourglass The Perspective of Futuring The Perspective of Visioning The Tilting Hourglass A Case Study: Trends with Opportunities But No Strategic Technologies Chapter 4. Well Considered Expectations - Potential Errors and Remedies Futuring Principle 4: The best forecasts and plans are methodically generated and provide well considered expectations for the future. Predispositions Self-Interest and Wishful Thinking The Recency Effect False Starting Points and Assumptions Omissions and Unexpected Events Lack of Information Too Much and Incorrect Information Vagueness Misapproximations Poor Packaging Lack of Ownership Inadequate Resources, Personnel, and Budgets A Case Study: Prospects for Long-Term Economic Growth in India Chapter 5. Updating Forecasts with Trend Tracking Futuring Principle 5: There is no such thing as an immutable forecast or plan for an immutable future. Forecasts and plans must be continuously monitored, evaluated, and revised according to new data and conditions in order to improve real-time frameworks for making long-term decisions and strategies. Type I Pattern Recognition (Background) Type II Pattern Recognition (Signals) Type III Pattern Recognition (Data Arrays) A Case Study: The Updating and Pattern Recognition of Economic Growth in India Chapter 6. Managing Futuring Step 1: Identification of the Project Goals, Resources, and Assignments Step 2: Topic Question Step 3: Selection of Descriptors Step 4: Descriptor Research and Analysis Step 5: Interactions Among Descriptors Step 6: Forecasts Scenarios Chapter 7. Managing Visioning Preferred Futures Visionary Leadership Participatory Visioning Strategic Capabilities, Technologies, and Assets Planning 1. - Mission Statement 2. - Goals and Priorities 3. - Current Business Lines and Their Performance 4. - Strategic Capabilities, Technologies, and Assets 5. - Customers and Markets 6. - Competitors, Competitive Advantages, and Market Positioning 7. - Significant Trends and Their Potential Impacts 8. - Strategies 9. - Resources, Investments, and Budgets 10. - Assignments and Responsibilities 11. - Schedules, Milestones, and Metrics of Achievement 12. - Contingencies Chapter 8. Managing Applications and Benefits Anticipating Changing Customers, Markets, and Competitors Envisioning Potential New Products and Services Thought Leadership Teaching the Learning Organization and Changing Corporate Culture Risk Management Strategic Planning Visionary Leadership Chapter 9. Managing Expectations Your Expectations for Your Business Your Expectations for Others Your Expectations for Yourself Expectations for You Expectations for the Future of Futuring and Visioning About the Author Index About Triarchy Press Related Titles from Triarchy Press
