Useless Arithmetic

Name: Useless Arithmetic
Brand: Wiley
Price: 147.99 AUD
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Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future

By: Orrin H. Pilkey, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis

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Hardcover | 9 January 2007 | Edition Number 1

At a Glance

Hardcover
248 Pages

Age
22+

Dimensions(cm)
2.41 x 1.77 x 0.21

Hardcover

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Noted coastal geologist Orrin Pilkey and environmental scientist Linda Pilkey-Jarvis show that the quantitative mathematical models policy makers and government administrators use to form environmental policies are seriously flawed. Based on unrealistic and sometimes false assumptions, these models often yield answers that support unwise policies.

Writing for the general, nonmathematician reader and using examples from throughout the environmental sciences, Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis show how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can blind us to the hard data and sound judgment of experienced scientific fieldwork. They begin with a riveting account of the extinction of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. Next they engage in a general discussion of the limitations of many models across a broad array of crucial environmental subjects.

The book offers fascinating case studies depicting how the seductiveness of quantitative models has led to unmanageable nuclear waste disposal practices, poisoned mining sites, unjustifiable faith in predicted sea level rise rates, bad predictions of future shoreline erosion rates, overoptimistic cost estimates of artificial beaches, and a host of other thorny problems. The authors demonstrate how many modelers have been reckless, employing fudge factors to assure "correct" answers and caring little if their models actually worked.

A timely and urgent book written in an engaging style, Useless Arithmetic evaluates the assumptions behind models, the nature of the field data, and the dialogue between modelers and their "customers."

Industry Reviews

"This book is a welcome antidote to the blind use of supposedly quantitative models." -- Carl Wunsch, American Scientist " Useless Arithmetic dispels many myths and is a 'must read' packing in case studies and insights on faulty thinking." -- The Midwest Book Review "[This] readily accessible book should be read by any activist who's ever had to face off against the opposition's engineers." -- Earth Island Journal

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You Can Find This Book In

Non-Fiction Earth Sciences, Geography, Environment, Planning The Environment Conservation of The Environment Politics & Government Central Government Central Government Policies Science Science in General Mathematics Applied Mathematics Mathematical Modelling

Engineering & Technology Environmental Science Biology, Life Sciences Life Sciences in General Ecological Science Pollution & Threats to the Environment

Mathematical fishing	p. 1
Mathematical models : escaping from reality	p. 22
Yucca Mountain : a million years of certainty	p. 45
How fast the rising sea?	p. 66
Following a wayward rule	p. 92
Beaches in an expected universe	p. 114
Giant cups of poison	p. 140
Invasive plants : an environmental apocalypse	p. 164
A promise unfulfilled	p. 182
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

Useless Arithmetic

Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future

At a Glance

Hardcover

Industry Reviews

Shipping

How to return your order

Defective items

You Can Find This Book In

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