The Sanctions Paradox

Economic Statecraft and International Relations

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Paperback | 25 October 1999

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364 Pages

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22.86 x 15.24 x 2.06

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Despite their increasing importance, there is little theoretical understanding of why nation-states initiate economic sanctions, or what determines their success. This 1999 book argues that both imposers and targets of economic coercion incorporate expectations of future conflict as well as the short-run opportunity costs of coercion into their behaviour. Drezner argues that conflict expectations have a paradoxical effect. Adversaries will impose sanctions frequently, but rarely secure concessions. Allies will be reluctant to use coercion, but once sanctions are used, they can result in significant concessions. Ironically, the most favourable distribution of payoffs is likely to result when the imposer cares the least about its reputation or the distribution of gains. The book's argument is pursued using game theory and statistical analysis, and detailed case studies of Russia's relations with newly-independent states, and US efforts to halt nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula.

Industry Reviews

'The Sanctions Paradox is one of the best books written in the field of international political economy during the 1990s. It offers a simple but clever theory that explains when states are likely to employ economic sanctions and when they are likely to work. Since sanctions seem destined to remain a favourite tool of statecraft in the 21st century, this book is likely to be paid serious attention for years to come.' John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago

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List of figures	p. xii
List of tables	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xv
Introduction	p. 1
A tale of two cases	p. 1
The argument	p. 4
Why economic coercion matters	p. 6
The literature	p. 9
Flaws in the literature	p. 18
The methodology	p. 21
The rest of the book	p. 22
Theory and data	p. 25
A model of economic coercion	p. 27
The assumptions	p. 28
The model	p. 35
A caveat: switches in preferences	p. 47
Another caveat: non-negotiable demands	p. 48
Choosing between carrots and sticks	p. 50
Conclusions and implications	p. 53
Proofs of lemmas	p. 55
Plausibility probes	p. 59
First impressions	p. 60
Statistical studies of sanctions initiation	p. 62
Statistical studies of sanctions outcomes	p. 68
The grain embargo	p. 74
The pipeline sanctions	p. 80
Economic sanctions and human rights	p. 88
Summary	p. 99
Statistical tests	p. 102
Selecting the appropriate sample	p. 102
Operationalizing the variables	p. 106
Testing the causes of sanctions initiation	p. 114
Testing the causes of sanctions outcomes	p. 121
Summary	p. 127
Economic coercion in the former Soviet Union	p. 129
Russian power and preferences	p. 131
The motivation	p. 131
Russian policy preferences	p. 134
Russia's ability to coerce	p. 140
Conflict expectations with Russia	p. 147
Predicting the outcomes	p. 150
The extent of NIS concessions	p. 153
Introduction	p. 153
Belarus	p. 154
Kazakhstan	p. 160
Turkmenistan	p. 169
Kyrgyzstan	p. 173
Armenia	p. 176
Tajikistan	p. 179
Uzbekistan	p. 183
Moldova	p. 187
Georgia	p. 193
Ukraine	p. 198
Azerbaijan	p. 208
Lithuania	p. 215
Latvia	p. 219
Estonia	p. 224
Conclusion	p. 229
Evaluating the evidence	p. 231
Introduction	p. 231
Coding the data	p. 232
Predictions and outcomes	p. 233
A Boolean analysis	p. 239
Some final observations	p. 245
Choosing between carrots and sticks	p. 249
Economic statecraft and nuclear proliferation on the Korean Peninsula	p. 251
Carrots and sticks	p. 251
The United States and South Korea's nuclear program	p. 254
The United States and North Korea's nuclear program	p. 275
Implications	p. 303
Conclusion	p. 305
Conclusions, implications, speculations	p. 307
A review	p. 307
Additional insights	p. 309
A critique	p. 311
Policy implications	p. 312
Questions for future research	p. 317
References	p. 322
Index	p. 336
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

The Sanctions Paradox

Economic Statecraft and International Relations

At a Glance

Paperback

Industry Reviews

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Defective items

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