| Introduction: the Global Risk Arena, Technological Systems and This Book | p. 1 |
| Technological Risk-driving Forces | p. 1 |
| Technology and Three Kinds of Risk | p. 4 |
| The Philosophy of the Book | p. 4 |
| Technological Risks with Which This Book Is Not Concerned | p. 5 |
| The Readership | p. 5 |
| References | p. 6 |
| Reflections on Risks and Technology | p. 7 |
| Risks and Technology | p. 7 |
| What Is a Risk? | p. 8 |
| History of Risk Research | p. 9 |
| What Is an Acceptable Risk? | p. 10 |
| Society's Reaction to Risks | p. 12 |
| Risks in the Public Debate | p. 15 |
| References | p. 17 |
| Risks in the Past and Present | p. 19 |
| Background | p. 19 |
| The Problem | p. 20 |
| The Historical Perspective | p. 21 |
| Changing Society | p. 21 |
| Assessment and Prevention of Risks | p. 23 |
| Risks in Traditional Society | p. 23 |
| Wan | p. 24 |
| Homicide and Manslaughter | p. 24 |
| Contagious Disease | p. 25 |
| Transport and Communication | p. 26 |
| Fire | p. 29 |
| Natural Catastrophes | p. 31 |
| Fatal Accidents in the Past and the Present | p. 31 |
| Acknowledgments | p. 33 |
| References | p. 33 |
| The Dangerous Steam Engine | p. 35 |
| Safety Devices | p. 35 |
| Early Accidents in the Home Country of the Steam Engine | p. 37 |
| Simultaneous Development in the USA | p. 38 |
| Nuclear Engineering-Steam Technology at the Crossroads | p. 40 |
| Other Examples of Historical Safety Measures | p. 42 |
| Dramatic Accidents and Slowly Acting Dangers | p. 42 |
| The Falun Mine | p. 42 |
| The Otis Elevator | p. 42 |
| Sundry Safety Equipment | p. 43 |
| Concluding Remarks | p. 44 |
| References | p. 44 |
| Risks and Safety in Building Structures | p. 47 |
| Introduction | p. 47 |
| Structures Are Degraded by Use and by the Environment | p. 47 |
| Commonly Occurring Loads | p. 47 |
| The Environment | p. 48 |
| Use | p. 48 |
| Nature Reclaims | p. 49 |
| Violent Natural Loads | p. 49 |
| The Richter Scale for Earthquakes-an Empirical Scale | p. 50 |
| How Does a Design Engineer Think? | p. 51 |
| Human Errors | p. 54 |
| We Are All Humans | p. 54 |
| Quality | p. 54 |
| Control | p. 54 |
| Learning Through Accidents | p. 55 |
| The Learning Tower of Pisa | p. 55 |
| The Getå Accident - the Worst Train Accident in Sweden | p. 56 |
| The Worst Building Accident Due to a Structural Fault in Modem Times a Combination of Errors | p. 57 |
| What Has Been Learned About the Risk of Gas Explosions? | p. 59 |
| Loads Due to Terrorism | p. 60 |
| Do Not Always Trust Beautiful Computer Calculations | p. 61 |
| Bridges Which Collapse-Learning from History | p. 63 |
| Bridges Which Shake Down. The Engineer Must Also Learn from History | p. 63 |
| Fatigue Failure and Other Phenomena in Metallic Materials | p. 64 |
| The Designer's Nightmare-the Unforeseen Load | p. 65 |
| Safety Regulations Within the Building Sector | p. 66 |
| Concluding Remarks | p. 67 |
| References | p. 67 |
| Risks in the Conversion of Energy | p. 69 |
| Introduction | p. 69 |
| Energy Concepts | p. 69 |
| The World's Energy Supply | p. 70 |
| Energy Systems and Energy Use | p. 71 |
| Examples of National Energy Balances | p. 72 |
| Risks in Energy Systems | p. 73 |
| Methods for the Evaluation of Risks in the Conversion of Energy | p. 74 |
| Examples of Risks in Energy Conversion | p. 74 |
| Disaster Risks | p. 74 |
| Risks During Normal Operation | p. 79 |
| Evaluation and Comparison of the Risks Associated with Energy Conversion | p. 81 |
| Energy Today and in the Future | p. 82 |
| References | p. 83 |
| Chemical and Physical Health Risks-Chemicals, Radiation, and Noise | p. 85 |
| Environment, Technology, and Health | p. 85 |
| How Do We Know What Is Harmful | p. 86 |
| Tests of Functions and Other Tests | p. 87 |
| Epidemiology | p. 87 |
| Statistics of Injuries | p. 88 |
| Data on Exposure and Uptake in the Body | p. 88 |
| Examination of Materials and Equipment | p. 89 |
| Assessment of Chemical Health Risks in the Environment | p. 89 |
| Chemical Health Risks in the Environment and in the Work Environment | p. 89 |
| Uptake of Xenobiotics in the Body | p. 90 |
| What Are the Chemical Effects on the Body? | p. 90 |
| Chemical Health Risks of Current Interest | p. 91 |
| Health Effects of Fine Particles | p. 92 |
| Nanoparticles | p. 94 |
| Air Quality Standards of Fine Particles | p. 95 |
| Diesel Exhaust | p. 96 |
| Indoor Environment Causing Ill-health | p. 97 |
| Limit Values | p. 98 |
| Physical Risk Factors | p. 99 |
| Radiation | p. 99 |
| The Influence of Radiation on the Body | p. 101 |
| The Chernobyl Accident | p. 102 |
| Non-ionizing Radiation | p. 104 |
| Limit Values for Radiation | p. 106 |
| Noise | p. 106 |
| Influence of Noise on Health and Well-being | p. 107 |
| Limit Values for Noise | p. 108 |
| Environment and Health in a Holistic Perspective | p. 108 |
| References | p. 109 |
| Safety Factors and Exposure Limits | p. 113 |
| Numerical Decision Tools | p. 113 |
| Safety Factors | p. 113 |
| What Do Safety Factors Protect Against? | p. 116 |
| Exposure Limits | p. 117 |
| Dose-response Relationships | p. 117 |
| Collective Dose Limits | p. 120 |
| Remaining Uncertainties | p. 120 |
| References | p. 122 |
| How dangerous Is It to Travel? | p. 123 |
| Introduction | p. 123 |
| Risks Associated with the Road Traffic System | p. 125 |
| Risks Associated with Rail Travel | p. 127 |
| How Safe Is Rail Travel? | p. 127 |
| What Are Possible Causes of Accidents? | p. 128 |
| Safety Has Improved | p. 128 |
| Risks Associated with Aviation | p. 130 |
| Aircraft Accidents | p. 130 |
| Surprised by Automation at Gottrtöra | p. 130 |
| Überlingen Midair Collision | p. 133 |
| What Is Being Done to Improve Flight Safety? | p. 133 |
| Risks Associated with the Sea | p. 135 |
| From Daredevil Enterprise to Safe Cruising Traffic | p. 135 |
| Accident Statistics | p. 136 |
| Authorities and International Organizations | p. 137 |
| Regulation for the Safety of Ships | p. 138 |
| The Estonia Accident and Its Consequences for the Future Safety at Sea | p. 139 |
| A Few Reflections on Survival Equipment and Attitudes | p. 140 |
| References | p. 141 |
| IT-Risks and Security | p. 143 |
| Computers and IT Systems | p. 143 |
| Computer-related Risks | p. 144 |
| Where Do We Find Computers and Related Risks? | p. 147 |
| In What Ways Can a Computer Fail? | p. 149 |
| Why Do IT Systems Typically Fail? | p. 150 |
| Deliberate Attacks on IT Systems | p. 152 |
| Counter-measures Against IT-related Risks and Failures | p. 154 |
| Where Are We Heading? | p. 157 |
| Literature and Other Sources of Information | p. 159 |
| References | p. 160 |
| Vulnerability of Infrastructures | p. 161 |
| Introduction | p. 161 |
| Critical Infrastructures | p. 161 |
| Examples of Infrastructure Collapses | p. 163 |
| The Vulnerability Concept | p. 165 |
| The Nature of Infrastructures | p. 166 |
| Threats Against Infrastructures | p. 168 |
| Approaches to Vulnerability Analysis | p. 168 |
| Practical Examples | p. 169 |
| Vulnerability Analysis of Electric Power Systems | p. 169 |
| Vulnerability Analysis of Road Transportation Systems | p. 171 |
| Control and Management | p. 173 |
| References | p. 173 |
| Risk Management | p. 175 |
| Introduction | p. 175 |
| Overview of Risk Management | p. 75 |
| Risk Management and the Risk Analysis Process | p. 179 |
| Risk Management Strategies | p. 381 |
| Risk Acceptability (Tolerability) and Risk Reduction (ALARP) | p. 184 |
| The Cautionary and Precautionary Principles | p. 188 |
| Process Plant Safety-A Case Study | p. 190 |
| Introduction | p. 190 |
| Risk Assessment | p. 191 |
| Summary of the Risk Picture | p. 194 |
| Discussion | p. 195 |
| References | p. 197 |
| Risk Analysis | p. 199 |
| Introduction | p. 199 |
| Risk and Decision | p. 200 |
| General Principles of Risk Analysis | p. 203 |
| Systems Definition and Identification of Threats and Hazards | p. 203 |
| Risk Estimation | p. 205 |
| Risk Analysis Methods | p. 209 |
| Introductory Remarks on Risk Analysis Methods | p. 209 |
| Risk Analysis of a Fuel-cell-driven Electric Vehicle | p. 209 |
| Risk Analysis of the Spillway in a Hydropower Dam | p. 212 |
| Markov Modeling of a Simple Parallel System | p. 214 |
| More on Qualitative Risk Analysis | p. 216 |
| Practical Aspects of a Risk Analysis | p. 217 |
| Conducting a Risk Analysis | p. 217 |
| Quality Requirements on Risk Analyses | p. 218 |
| Risk Analysis Standards | p. 219 |
| The Role of Risk Analysis in the Risk Management Process | p. 220 |
| The Future of Risk Analysis | p. 222 |
| References | p. 223 |
| Fire and Explosion | p. 225 |
| Introduction | p. 225 |
| Fire Development | p. 225 |
| Factors that Affects the Enclosure Fire Development | p. 227 |
| Explosions | p. 228 |
| Introduction | p. 228 |
| Different Types of Explosions | p. 228 |
| Limits of Flammability | p. 230 |
| Ignition Sources | p. 231 |
| Fire Risk Identification | p. 231 |
| Fire Risk Analysis | p. 232 |
| Introduction to Fire Risk Analysis Methods | p. 232 |
| Ranking Methods | p. 232 |
| Quantitative Fire Risk Analysis Methods | p. 233 |
| Models for the Calculation of Consequences | p. 234 |
| Risk Reduction | p. 240 |
| Introduction | p. 240 |
| Fire Risks | p. 240 |
| Explosion Risks | p. 241 |
| References | p. 243 |
| The Human factor? | p. 245 |
| Two Accidents | p. 245 |
| The Concept of Human Factors - How Is It Used? | p. 248 |
| What Is Human? | p. 250 |
| Technical Errors - Human Errors | p. 252 |
| Vulnerable Professional Groups | p. 253 |
| Final Remarks | p. 254 |
| References | p. 254 |
| The Perception of Risks of Technology | p. 255 |
| Introduction | p. 255 |
| Objective Risk and Risk Perception | p. 255 |
| Factors in Risk Perception | p. 257 |
| Emotions and Risk Perception | p. 261 |
| Background Variables of Importance for Risk Perception | p. 262 |
| Risk Perception in a Social and Political Perspective | p. 265 |
| Consequences of Risk Perception | p. 267 |
| Risk Communication: The Case of Nuclear Waste | p. 268 |
| References | p. 271 |
| The Value of a Life | p. 275 |
| Introduction | p. 275 |
| Risk Valuation and Socio-economic Efficiency | p. 276 |
| Some Important Concepts | p. 277 |
| The Economic Assessment Problem | p. 279 |
| Ethical Aspects of Economic Risk Assessment | p. 280 |
| Economic Assessment Methods | p. 281 |
| The Production-loss Approach | p. 282 |
| The Willingness-to-pay Approach | p. 283 |
| A More Balanced Approach to the Valuation of Life | p. 286 |
| The Size of the Initial Risk | p. 286 |
| The Risk Distribution | p. 287 |
| To Feel Safe-to Be Safe | p. 287 |
| Large Accidents (Catastrophes) or Small | p. 287 |
| Risks for Oneself and Others | p. 288 |
| Statistical Lives or Remaining Lifetime | p. 288 |
| Quality-adjusted Life Years (QALY) | p. 289 |
| Concluding Remarks | p. 290 |
| References | p. 290 |
| Tacit Knowledge and Risks | p. 293 |
| Problems of Knowledge and Risks | p. 293 |
| Confronting the Unforeseen | p. 294 |
| Art as a Source of Knowledge | p. 296 |
| Three Kinds of Knowledge in Practice | p. 297 |
| Philosophy and Engineering | p. 297 |
| "The Tacit Knowledge of the Working Hand" | p. 298 |
| Personal Responsibility | p. 299 |
| The Transfer of Experience of Driving a Car | p. 301 |
| Reflection-When Different Instruments Play Together | p. 301 |
| Dealing with the Unexpected | p. 303 |
| References | p. 303 |
| How to Worry in Moderation | p. 305 |
| The Golden Mean of Knowledge | p. 305 |
| The Benefit of Knowledge | p. 306 |
| The Expansion of Knowledge | p. 307 |
| The Explosion of Knowledge | p. 308 |
| The Miraculous Fruits of Knowledge | p. 310 |
| The Communication of Knowledge | p. 311 |
| The Lack of Knowledge and Information Overflow | p. 313 |
| Knowledge and Reflection | p. 317 |
| Some Basic Concepts of Statistics | p. 319 |
| Introduction | p. 319 |
| Models | p. 319 |
| Probability | p. 320 |
| Independent Events | p. 321 |
| Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Theorem | p. 322 |
| Discrete Random Variables | p. 323 |
| Continuous Random Variables | p. 325 |
| The Normal Distribution | p. 325 |
| Statistical Inference | p. 326 |
| References | p. 327 |
| Study Help | p. 329 |
| Introduction | p. 329 |
| Exercises | p. 329 |
| Editors and Contributors | p. 333 |
| Editors | p. 333 |
| Contributors | p. 334 |
| Index | p. 337 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |