What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity.
Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty.
More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can't do without them.
Industry Reviews
Hugh Courtney, Ph.D. McKinsey consultant and author of "20/20 Foresight" Paul Schoemaker belongs to an extremely exclusive club -- the one for business authors who are both leading-edge practitioners and academic researchers. This extraordinary book offers eminently practical, yet theoretically pure, advice for managers in these uncertain times. Professor Marvin Zonis Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago The title says it all...Schoemaker guides us through the uncertainties and anxieties that confound business post-dotcom/post-September 11/post-Enron/post-economic downturn. He shows how businesspeople can create scenarios that will make them prepared and how the prepared can exploit the opportunities inherent in an uncertain world. Henry Hatch 47th Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Commanding General Paul Schoemaker describes a strategic process that will better prepare organizations for the future. This book is an invaluable guide for managers in both the public and private sectors. Alberto Ibarguen Publisher, "The Miami Herald" This is the strategic equivalent of a good liberal arts education. It teaches you a broad-based approach that will keep you from being surprised by change. "Paul Schoemaker belongs to an extremely exclusive club -- the one for business authors who are both leading-edge practitioners and academic researchers. This extraordinary book offers eminently practical, yet theoretically pure, advice for managers in these uncertain times."--Hugh Courtney, Ph.D. McKinsey consultant and author of 20/20 Foresight "The title says it all...Schoemaker guides us through the uncertainties and anxieties that confound business post-dotcom/post-September 11/post-Enron/post-economic downturn. He shows how businesspeople can create scenarios that will make them prepared and how the prepared can exploit the opportunities inherent in an uncertain world."--Professor Marvin Zonis, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago "Paul Schoemaker describes a strategic process that will better prepare organizations for the future. This book is an invaluable guide for managers in both the public and private sectors."--Henry Hatch, 47th Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Commanding General "This is the strategic equivalent of a good liberal arts education. It teaches you a broad-based approach that will keep you from being surprised by change."--Alberto Ibarguen Publisher, The Miami Herald Alberto IbarguenPublisher, "The Miami Herald"This is the strategic equivalent of a good liberal arts education. It teaches you a broad-based approach that will keep you from being surprised by change. Hugh Courtney, Ph.D.McKinsey consultant and author of "20/20 Foresight"Paul Schoemaker belongs to an extremely exclusive club -- the one for business authors who are both leading-edge practitioners and academic researchers. This extraordinary book offers eminently practical, yet theoretically pure, advice for managers in these uncertain times. Henry Hatch47th Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Commanding GeneralPaul Schoemaker describes a strategic process that will better prepare organizations for the future. This book is an invaluable guide for managers in both the public and private sectors. Alberto Ibargu enPublisher, "The Miami Herald"This is the strategic equivalent of a good liberal arts education. It teaches you a broad-based approach that will keep you from being surprised by change. Professor Marvin ZonisGraduate School of Business, University of ChicagoThe title says it all...Schoemaker guides us through the uncertainties and anxieties that confound business post-dotcom/post-September 11/post-Enron/post-economic downturn. He shows how businesspeople can create scenarios that will make them prepared and how the prepared can exploit the opportunities inherent in an uncertain world.
