Foreign Policy Analysis

1.Introduction What is a policy? When a policy becomes foreignAn array of explanations The evolution in FPA An introduction to FPA 2. Identifying a Foreign Policy The Goals of Foreign Policy The goals communicated Deducing the goals pursued Mobilizing Resources Resources The power paradox Mobilization and exploitation Instruments of Foreign Policy Socialization Coercion Intervention Event-based databases The Outcome of Foreign Policy Measuring effectiveness Explaining effectiveness 3. The Level of Analysis The Agent and the Structure From neorealism to behavioural international relations From constructivism to cognitvismThe Decision-Making Cycle A segmentation in six phases A linear, cyclical or chaotic processThe Two-Levels Game The variation of the winset The predictions of the two-levels gameFeedback Effects Positive and negative feedbacks Historical institutionalism Complex systems 4. The Decision-Maker Perceptions Misperceptions Attribution bias ProbabilitiesCognition Cognitive consistency Operational codes Heuristic shortcuts Cognitive mapping Cognitive complexity Schema theoryEmotions From psychobiography to statistics The middle way: affective dimensions Typologies combining the affective dimensions 5. The Bureaucracy The Organizational Model Organizational Strategies The effects of standard operating proceduresThe Bureaucratic Model One game, several players The interactions between the players The position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs The bureaucratic model and its criticsGroup Dynamics The theory of groupthink Defining the phenomenonManagement Styles Defining management styles The most appropriate management styles 6. The Institutions Democratic Peace Observing democratic peace Explaining democratic peace through norms The exchange of information and credibility Economic Liberalism From democracy to free-trade Critics of liberal peace The Parliamentary and Electoral System Presidential and parliamentary regimes Parliamentarians and their preferences Cohabitation and coalitions The Strong State and the Weak State Determining the relative power of the state The power of the state and its foreign policy 7. The Social Actors Public Opinion The Almond-Lippmann consensus and its critics The structure of public opinion The influence of public opinion Diversion The rally around the flag The temptation of war as a rallying leverThe Media The influence of the media The influence of leaders on the media The CNN EffectInterest Groups The influence of interest groups on foreign policy Methodological pitfalls Case studies and generalizationsExperts Think tanks Epistemic communities The predictions of experts 8.The International System Drawing a Line Between FPA and IR The last frontier of foreign policy The distribution of power and polarization The strategic and economic conditions The Sources of Change in the System Systemic shocks Change and continuity in the international system<connecting the=" domestic=" to=" foreign=" classical=" neo-realism=" complex=" interdependence=" transnationalism 9. Rationality Rational Choice From micro-economics to foreign policy The substituability of foreign policies Rational deterrenceModeling Rationality Game theory Cybernetic theoryRationality and Cognition Prospect theory Poliheuristic theory 10. Culture Norms Norm compliance Promoting norms