| Preface | p. xi |
| Historical Background | p. 1 |
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| Inference | p. 1 |
| Roots in the Past | p. 6 |
| Francis Bacon | p. 7 |
| The Development of Probability | p. 10 |
| John Stuart Mill | p. 13 |
| G. H. von Wright | p. 17 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 19 |
| Exercises | p. 19 |
| Bibliography | p. 20 |
| First Order Logic | p. 21 |
| Introduction | p. 21 |
| Syntax | p. 24 |
| Semantics | p. 28 |
| W. V. O. Quine's Mathematical Logic | p. 30 |
| Arguments from Premises | p. 33 |
| Limitations | p. 34 |
| Summary | p. 39 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 39 |
| Exercises | p. 39 |
| Bibliography | p. 41 |
| The Probability Calculus | p. 42 |
| Introduction | p. 42 |
| Elementary Probability | p. 44 |
| Combinations and Permutations | p. 44 |
| The Probability Calculus | p. 47 |
| Elementary Theorems | p. 49 |
| Conditional Probability | p. 50 |
| The Axiom of Conditional Probability | p. 51 |
| Bayes' Theorem | p. 53 |
| Probability Distributions | p. 54 |
| Frequency Functions and Distribution Functions | p. 55 |
| Properties of Distributions | p. 59 |
| Sampling Distributions | p. 61 |
| Useful Distributions | p. 62 |
| Summary | p. 64 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 65 |
| Exercises | p. 65 |
| Bibliography | p. 67 |
| Interpretations of Probability | p. 68 |
| Introduction | p. 68 |
| The Classical View | p. 68 |
| Empirical Interpretations of Probability | p. 71 |
| The Limiting Frequency Interpretation | p. 72 |
| The Propensity Interpretation | p. 78 |
| Logical Interpretations of Probability | p. 80 |
| Subjective Interpretations of Probability | p. 87 |
| Dutch Book | p. 87 |
| Conditionalization | p. 89 |
| Summary | p. 93 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 95 |
| Exercises | p. 95 |
| Bibliography | p. 96 |
| Nonstandard Measures of Support | p. 98 |
| Support | p. 98 |
| Karl Popper | p. 99 |
| Corroboration | p. 100 |
| Levi's Criticism | p. 102 |
| Other Measures | p. 103 |
| Dempster-Shafer Belief Functions | p. 104 |
| Belief Functions and Mass Functions | p. 105 |
| Reduction to Sets of Probabilities | p. 106 |
| Combining Evidence | p. 108 |
| Special Cases | p. 110 |
| Assessment of Belief Functions | p. 111 |
| Sets of Probability Functions | p. 113 |
| Summary | p. 114 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 114 |
| Exercises | p. 115 |
| Bibliography | p. 116 |
| Nonmonotonic Reasoning | p. 117 |
| Introduction | p. 117 |
| Logic and (Non)monotonicity | p. 117 |
| Default Logic | p. 121 |
| Preliminaries | p. 121 |
| Transformation of Open Default Theories | p. 123 |
| Extensions | p. 124 |
| Need for a Fixed Point | p. 126 |
| Number of Extensions | p. 127 |
| Representation | p. 128 |
| Variants of Default Logic | p. 131 |
| Autoepistemic Logic | p. 134 |
| Modal Logic | p. 134 |
| Autoepistemic Reasoning vs Default Reasoning | p. 136 |
| Stable Expansions | p. 138 |
| Alternative Fixed-Point Formulation | p. 140 |
| Groundedness | p. 142 |
| Circumscription | p. 143 |
| Unresolved Issues | p. 146 |
| "Intuition": Basis of Defaults | p. 146 |
| Computational Complexity | p. 147 |
| Multiple Extensions | p. 147 |
| Summary | p. 148 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 148 |
| Exercises | p. 149 |
| Bibliography | p. 150 |
| Theory Replacement | p. 152 |
| Introduction | p. 152 |
| Theory Change | p. 153 |
| Expansion | p. 153 |
| Contraction | p. 154 |
| Revision | p. 155 |
| Rationality Considerations | p. 156 |
| The AGM Postulates | p. 158 |
| Expansion | p. 158 |
| Contraction | p. 159 |
| Revision | p. 161 |
| Connections | p. 163 |
| Selecting a Contraction Function | p. 164 |
| Epistemic Entrenchment | p. 166 |
| Must It Be? | p. 168 |
| Belief Bases | p. 168 |
| Updates | p. 169 |
| Rationality Revisited | p. 170 |
| Iterated Change | p. 171 |
| Summary | p. 171 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 172 |
| Exercises | p. 172 |
| Bibliography | p. 173 |
| Statistical Inference | p. 175 |
| Introduction | p. 175 |
| Classical Statistics | p. 178 |
| Significance Tests | p. 179 |
| Hypothesis Testing | p. 182 |
| Confidence Intervals | p. 186 |
| Bayesian Statistics | p. 192 |
| Summary | p. 195 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 197 |
| Exercises | p. 197 |
| Bibliography | p. 198 |
| Evidential Probability | p. 200 |
| Introduction | p. 200 |
| Background Issues and Assumptions | p. 201 |
| The Syntax of Statistical Knowledge | p. 203 |
| Reference Classes and Target Classes | p. 205 |
| Reference Formulas | p. 205 |
| Target Formulas | p. 208 |
| Prima Facie Support | p. 209 |
| Indefinite Probabilities | p. 210 |
| Definite Probabilities | p. 210 |
| Sharpening | p. 212 |
| Precision | p. 213 |
| Specificity | p. 213 |
| Richness | p. 216 |
| Sharpens | p. 217 |
| Partial Proof | p. 219 |
| Extended Example | p. 220 |
| A Useful Algorithm | p. 225 |
| Relations to Other Interpretations | p. 225 |
| Summary | p. 226 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 227 |
| Exercises | p. 227 |
| Bibliography | p. 228 |
| Semantics | p. 230 |
| Introduction | p. 230 |
| Models and Truth | p. 232 |
| Model Ratios | p. 235 |
| Relevant Models | p. 236 |
| Partial Validity | p. 240 |
| Remarks | p. 242 |
| Summary | p. 244 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 245 |
| Exercises | p. 245 |
| Bibliography | p. 245 |
| Applications | p. 247 |
| Introduction | p. 247 |
| Elementary Results | p. 248 |
| Inference from Samples | p. 254 |
| Example | p. 259 |
| Statistical Induction | p. 261 |
| Bayesian Induction | p. 262 |
| Sequences of Draws | p. 264 |
| Summary | p. 266 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 267 |
| Exercises | p. 268 |
| Bibliography | p. 268 |
| Scientific Inference | p. 270 |
| Introduction | p. 270 |
| Objectivity | p. 270 |
| Evidential and Practical Certainty | p. 272 |
| Statistical Inference | p. 273 |
| Demonstrative Induction | p. 274 |
| Direct Measurement | p. 275 |
| Indirect Measurement | p. 280 |
| Theory, Language, and Error | p. 285 |
| Summary | p. 286 |
| Bibliographical Notes | p. 287 |
| Measurement | p. 287 |
| Theories | p. 287 |
| Datamining | p. 287 |
| Exercises | p. 288 |
| Bibliography | p. 288 |
| Names Index | p. 291 |
| Index | p. 293 |
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