The Big Bet

Plt;bPgt;What happens when democracy becomes just another tradeable commodity? The first book on the phenomenon of prediction markets - and how they are reshaping the world. Plt;/bPgt;

Plt;bPgt;What happens when democracy becomes another commodity? The first book on prediction markets - and how they are re-shaping the world. Plt;/bPgt;Plt;BRPgt;Plt;BRPgt;For many, Donald TrumpP#8217;s decisive election victory over Kamala Harris in 2024 was a shock. Traditional polls had the race too close to call. But for those watching prediction betting markets, a very different story was being told.Plt;BRPgt;Plt;BRPgt;In recent years, prediction markets have swept the world, fundamentally changing the nature of gambling and making their youthful pioneers billionaires. Posed as binary P#8216;Yes/NoP#8217; questions about future events, prediction bets allow any difference of opinion P#8211; whether on politics, wars, assassinations, or popular culture P#8211; to be financialised.Plt;BRPgt;Plt;BRPgt;But are these markets really a new phenomenon? What does it mean when those tasked with safeguarding democracy hold financial stakes in its volatility?Plt;BRPgt;Plt;BRPgt;From Renaissance Rome, where merchants wagered on papal conclaves, through wartime LondonP#8217;s coffee house gossip, to the PentagonP#39;s ill-fated terrorism futures exchange, Plt;iPgt;The Big Bet Plt;/iPgt;describes the full five-hundred-year arc of a permissive regime that no one designed and no one voted for.Plt;BRPgt;Plt;BRPgt;Drawing on deep expertise, Michael Auerbach examines how these markets are changing our world, and what they mean for the future of our democratic self-governance. Because they are not an anomaly P#8212; they are the logical endpoint of a society that has applied market capitalism to every aspect of life. And in a world where everything is a wager and nothing is off limits, knowing where the chips will fall matters more than ever.