Acknowledgments ix
Introduction xi
Chapter 1 A World in Crisis 1
A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy
Save the Day
Coping with a Different Recession
Davos Diary: 2008
Double Bubble Trouble
Even When the Worst Is Overâ"Watch Out for Aftershocks
Pitfalls in a Postbubble World
Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating
Global Fix for a Global Crisis
Changing the Fedâs Policy Mandate
An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama
Dying of Consumption
Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble
A Postbubble Global Business Cycle
Americaâs Japan Syndrome
Whither Capitalism?
After the Era of Excess
Same Old, Same Old
Depression Foil
Chapter 2 The Globalization Debate 89
Open Macro
The Battleground of Globalization
The Global Delta
Beggars Canât Be Choosers
Perils of a Different Globalization
Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture
Doha Doesnât Matter
Global Speed Trap
Hitting a BRIC Wall?
Global Comebackâ"First Japan, Now Germany
Labor versus Capital
Global Lessons
From Globalization to Localization
Unprepared for Globalization
The Currency Foil
The Shifting Mix of Global Saving
Chapter 3 Chinese Rebalancing 169
Chinaâs Rebalancing Challenge
A Commodity-Lite China
Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge
Chinaâs Great Contradiction
Soft Landing Made in China?
The Great Chinese Profi ts Debate
China Goes for Quality
Heavy Lifting
Two Birds with One Stone
Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable
Chinaâs Global Challenge
Consumer-Led Growth for China
Chinaâs Macro Imperatives
Manchurian Paradox
Chapter 4 Pan-Asian Challenges 261
The Next Asia
Rebalancing Made in Japan?
From Beijing to Dubai
A Tale of Two Asias
Kimâs Boost to Globalization
Japanâs Missing Link
India on the Move
The Cranes of Dubai
Asian Decoupling Unlikely
The Korea Test
Asiaâs Policy Trap
Complacency Asian Style
The End of the Beginning
Another Asian Wake-Up Call
Indiaâs Virtuous Cycle
Risks of an Asian Relapse
Chapter 5 U.S.-China Tensions 327
A Slippery Slope
Past the Point of No Return
Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy
Whoâs Subsidizing Whom?
Protectionist Threatsâ"Then and Now
The Ghost of Reed Smoot
Chinaâs Pace, Americaâs Angst
The Politics of Trade Frictions
A Wake-Up Call for the United States and China:
Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship
Afterword 395
Sources 403
About the Author 407
Index 409