Foreword xv
Preface xxiii
List of Contributors xxv
Author Biography xxix
Prologue xli
Part I Introduction 1
1 An Introduction to Wargaming and Modeling and Simulation 3
Jeffrey Appleget
Introduction 3
Terminology 3
An Abbreviated History of Wargames and Simulations 5
Wargames and Computer-Based Combat Simulations: From the Cold War to Today 6
Wargames Today 10
Simulations Today 13
Introduction 13
Simulation Types 13
Aggregate Simulations 13
Entity Simulations 14
Simulations and Prediction 14
Standard Assumptions 14
Data 15
Simulating the Reality of Combat 16
The Capability and Capacity of Modern Computing to Represent Combat 16
Finite Size 17
Number of Pieces/Entities 17
Terrain 18
Rules 18
Movement 18
Attack 19
Adjudication 19
Victory Conditions 19
Summary 20
Campaign
Analysis 20
Conclusion 21
Part II Historical Context 23
2 A School for War ¢" A Brief History of the Prussian Kriegsspiel 25
Jorit Wintjes
Introduction 25
Kriegsspiel Prehistory 29
A School for War ¢" the Prussian Kriegsspiel 36
The Prussian Kriegsspiel 1824/28 ¢" 1862 42
The Golden Age ¢" 1862 to c. 1875 46
The Changing Kriegsspiel ¢" c. 1875 to 1914 50
Kriegsspiel Beyond Borders ¢" 1871 to 1914 54
Conclusion 59
3 Using Combat Models for Wargaming 65
Joseph M. Saur
The Nature of Combat Models 67
Europe¢s Plan to Simulate the Entire Planet 77
China Exclusive: China¢s ¢Magic Cube¢ Computer Unlocks the Future 77
A Model to Predict War 78
Afghanistan Stability/COIN Dynamics ¢" Security 79
The Nature of Wargames 81
The Players ¢" Who Might Be Involved? 85
The CRT ¢" How Do We Adjudicate Political, Economic, Information and Other Non-Kinetic Actions? How DO WE ADJUDICATE KINETIC INTERACTIONS (Which, in This Case, We Hope Do Not Occur!)? 86
Organizational Behaviors 88
Issue in Wargames (and Combat Models) 89
Yyyyn 90
Part III Wargaming and Operations Research 91
4 An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis 93
Paul K. Davis
Background and Structure 93
Relationships, Definitions, and Distinctions 94
Different Purposes for Wargaming 94
Backdrop 94
A Common Critique of M&S 94
Humans and M&S 98
Distinctions 98
A Model-Game-Model Paradigm 100
The Core Idea 100
Can Human Gaming Truly Serve as ¢Testing¢? 101
Case Study: Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula 103
Background 103
Model Building 104
Ideal Methods and Practical Expedients 104
Modernizing the Escalation Ladder 106
Cognitive Decision Models 108
Top-Level Structure 109
Lower Level Structure 109
Designing and Executing a Human Game 111
Reflections and Conclusions 114
Implications for Simulation 117
5 Wargaming, Automation, and Military Experimentation to Quantitatively and Qualitatively Inform Decision-Making 123
Jan Hodicky and Alejandro Hernandez
Introduction 123
Military Methods to Knowledge Discovery 124
Technology: Knowledge Enablers 126
Wargaming Automation Challenges in M&S Perspective 128
Wargaming Relation to M&S 128
Wargaming Elements 129
Constructive Simulation Building Blocks 131
Wargaming Elements Not Supported by Constructive Simulation 131
Challenges to Combined Methodologies for Knowledge Discovery 132
Constructive Simulation Constrains in the Context of Automation and Wargaming 133
Stage- Wise Experimentation in CAW 139
A Progression of Mixed Methods to Grand Innovation 139
A Complete Application of ACAW and SWE for Future Capability Insights 144
Computer- Assisted Wargaming Classification 148
Conclusion 151
6 Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Methods for Wargames: Case Study ¢" ¢European Thread¢ 157
Andrzej Najgebauer, Sawomir Wojciechowski, Ryszard Antkiewicz, and Dariusz Pierzchaa
Introduction 157
Assumptions and Research Tools 159
Modeling of Complex Activities 161
Network Model of Complex Activities 161
The MCA Software Package for Wargaming 166
Wargame ¢" Course of Action Evaluation 169
Assumptions 169
Situation 170
Model of Operation 173
A Collection of Values of the Function h(g) 173
Deterrence Phase 175
Parameters Value ¢" Deterrence Phase 175
COA Evaluation 179
Summary 180
7 Combining Wargaming and Simulation Analysis 183
Mark Sisson
Introduction 183
Current Efforts Underway 184
Methodology 185
Frameworks or Schemas to Support Portfolios 186
Comparability 188
Emergence 190
Triangulation 190
Exercises 191
Artificial Intelligence 192
Wargames 193
Computer Simulation Models 194
Mathematical Models 195
Experimentation 196
Building Portfolios 196
Conclusion 199
8 The Use of M&S and Wargaming to Address Wicked Problems 203
Phillip Pournelle
Why Are We Doing This? 205
Framing the Problem 207
M&S Support to Wargames 212
Pathologies and How to Avoid Them 213
Combining Wargaming and M&S 219
Part IV Wargaming and Concept Developing and Testing 223
9 Simulation Support to Wargaming for Tactical Operations Planning 225
Karsten Brathen, Rikke Amilde Seehuus, and Ole Martin Mevassvik
Introduction 225
Operational Planning and Wargaming 226
What are the Benefits of Simulation Support to COA Wargaming? 231
Principles of Technology Support to Wargaming for Operations Planning 232
Enabling Technologies 234
Models 235
System Implementation 237
SWAP 238
SWAP Experiment 241
Conclusion and Way Forward 243
10 Simulation-Based Cyber Wargaming 249
Ambrose Kam
Motivation and Overview 249
Introduction 250
Cyber Simulation 253
Mission Analysis Tool 258
Wargames 261
Commercial Wargames 265
Future Work 267
Summary 269
11 Using Computer-Generated Virtual Realities, Operations Research, and Board Games for Conflict Simulations 273
Armin F¼genschuh, S¶nke Marahrens, Leonie Marguerite Johannsmann, Sandra Matuszewski, Daniel M¼llenstedt, and Johannes Schmidt
Introduction 273
Public Software (C:MA/NO) 275
User- Tailored Software (VBS3) 277
Artificial Intelligence for Solving Tactical Planning Problems 278
Wargaming Support 282
Conclusion 285
Part V Emerging Technologies 289
12 Virtual Worlds and the Cycle of Research: Enhancing Information Flow Between Simulationists and Wargamers 291
Paul Vebber and Steven Aguiar
The Cycle of Research as a Communications Framework 293
Bridging the Wargaming ¢" Simulation Gap 297
Virtual World Beginnings 299
Elgin Marbles ¢" An Analytic Game 301
Analytical vs. Narrative Games 303
Virtual Worlds as a Virtual Reality 307
Operational Wargames 308
Distributed LVC Wargames 312
The Future 315
13 Visualization Support to Strategic Decision-Making 317
Richard J. Haberlin and Ernest H. Page
Introduction 317
Impact/Capabilities 318
Strategic Planning 318
Acquisitions 318
Spectrum of Visualizations 319
Interactive Visualizations 320
Commercial Interactive Data Visualization 320
Custom Data and Analytics Visualization 320
Methodology 322
Model Elicitation 322
Framework 323
Considerations 323
Data 324
Analytic Tools 324
Colors of Money 324
Courses of Action 325
Model Construction 325
Strategic 326
Budget 327
Risk Identification and Mitigation 328
Example: The MITRE Simulation, Experimentation and Analytics Lab (SEAL) 329
Audio Visual Support 329
Multi-Level Security 331
Enterprise Integration 331
Community of Practice 332
Summary 333
14 Using an Ontology to Design a Wargame/Simulation System 335
Dean S. Hartley, III
Motivation and Overview 335
Introduction 336
A Modern Conflict Ontology 337
An Introduction to the MCO 337
Actors 338
Objects 339
Actions 340
Metrics or State Variables 342
MCO Examples 343
Provenance of the MCO 346
Knowledge of Warfare 346
Knowledge of OOTWs 346
Modeling Issues 347
Precursor Ontologies 348
Early Versions of the MCO 349
Creating a Simulation/Wargame from the Ontology 349
Model Building Steps 350
Moving from the Ontology to the Conceptual Model 352
Building Block Concept 354
Agendas and Implicit Metric Models 356
Theoretical Metric Models 357
VV&A 358
Constructing the Scenario 361
Model Infrastructure 361
Conclusion 362
15 Agent-Driven End Game Analysis for Air Defense 367
M. Fatih Hocaogl u
Motivation and Overview 367
Introduction 367
Related Studies 369
Agent- Directed Simulation and AdSiF 371
AdSiF: Agent Driven Simulation Framework 373
End Game Agent 374
Command and Control Agent 374
C2 Architecture and Information Sharing 379
Target Evaluation 379
Fire Decision 380
Fire Doctrine 381
Decision-Level Data Fusion 382
Aims and Performance Measurement 384
Types of End Game Analysis 388
Footprint Analysis 390
Operating Area 394
Defended Area Analysis 395
Scenario View 397
Online Analysis and Scenario Replication Design 397
An Air Defense Scenario: Scenario View 398
Discussions 402
Epilogue 407
Index 411
