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Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making - Glenn Koller

Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making

By: Glenn Koller

Hardcover | 17 May 2000 | Edition Number 1

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Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications. Decision/option selection Manufacturing Environmental assessment Pricing Identification of business drivers Production sharing Insurance Scheduling and optimization Investing Security Law Emphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems. The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "soft" issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure. Visit RiskSupport.com for more information!
Industry Reviews
"This book makes for some interesting reading and is notable for addressing important nontechnical issues related to modeling riskit provides insight into the way in which some nontechnical people think, thus offering a potential for better communication with business-oriented clients." - Technometrics, May 2001 "This book is based on the original work of the author, who is a well-known specialist in the field of decision and risk analysis. The narration of the issues of concern referring to making decisions is excellent and gives the proper atmosphere of a proper discussion to address decisions of large investments or important topics. the overall practical experience of the author adds value The book is important. It brings to the potential reader a challenging way of looking into the decision-making process by using direct approaches The advantage of the book is that it addresses the decision -making process in a direct and simple manner, following patterns given by the author in the contributing-factor diagram I f one is serious about using the knowledge of decision analysis in one's practical, everyday work, this book is worth the pricethis book is worth reading and, to the extent possible, integrating in various tasks for solving decision problems facing a corporation or a person." -JASA, September 2001 "An instructor should consider this book for class use, because it gives a direct approach to the decision-making process, uncertainty, and risk estimation and how to interpret such knowledge in assessing and determining the values of potential alternatives, which are not always explicitly expressed by managers, stakeholders, or decision makers." -JASA, September 2001

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