Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events

Preface xi

I PRINCIPLES OF MODELING AND SIMULATION: ADVANCING GLOBAL STUDIES 1

1 Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why 3
Introduction 3
An Overview of Modeling and Simulation 4
A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation 8
Why Use Modeling and Simulation 16
Conclusions 20
Key Terms 21
References 21
Further Reading 22

2 Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events 23
Introduction 23
Global Events and the Social Sciences 25
Qualitative and Quantitative Research 28
Modeling and Simulation of Global Events 32
Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology 36
Model Validation 39
Conclusions 40
Key Terms 41
References 41

II MODELING PARADIGMS 43

3 System Dynamics 45
Introduction 45
Dynamic System Behavior 46
Building Blocks of System Dynamics Models 51
Conclusions 61
Key Terms 61
References 61

4 Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks 63
Introduction 63
Agent-Based Models: Description and Definition 64
Social Networks 76
Building an Agent-Based Model 77
Conclusions 78
Key Terms 78
References 79

5 Game Theory 81
Introduction 81
Fundamentals of Game Theory 81
Types of Games 86
Conclusions 95
Key Terms 95
References 96

III MODELING GLOBAL EVENTS 97

6 Case Study: Colombiaâ"A Country Study of Insurgency 99
Introduction 99
Developing the Research Question and Methodology 101
Background: Qualitative Research 102
Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative 108
System Dynamics 115
Responding to the Research Question 117
Key Terms 120
References 120
Case Study Bibliography 120

7 Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movementâ"Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of Soviet Communism 123
Introduction 123
Developing the Research Question and Methodology 125
Background: Qualitative Research 126
Measuring Agents and Environments: Stimuli and Actions 144
Modeling Human Behavior with Agents 147
Responding to the Research Question 150
Conclusions 151
Key Terms 152
References 152
Case Study Bibliography 153

8 Case Study: Vietnamâ"Johnson's War, 1963â"1965 155
Introduction 155
Developing the Research Question
and Methodology 157
Background: Qualitative Research 158
Analyzing the Social Network Structures 165
Social Network Aspects of Human Behavior Modeling 169
Agent-Based Model Development 169
Responding to the Research Question 172
Key Terms 173
References 174
Case Study Bibliography 174

9 Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisisâ"A National Security Emergency 177
Introduction 177
Developing the Research Question and Methodology 179
Background: Qualitative Research 180
Evaluating Behaviors 188
Game Theory 192
Responding to the Research Question 197
Key Terms 199
References 199
Case Study Bibliography 200

Index 203