In the twentieth century there have been five major recessions: two in the interwar period, and three more starting 1973, 1979, and 1989. This book focuses on events in the UK, but sets them in their international context and makes frequent comparisons with other countries. Major recessions happened at a similar time in all major countries, and the lessons are general. Three main conclusions are reached: (1) major recessions reflect abrupt
fallings off in demand, not supply; (2) these are due to identifiable demand shocks and by swings in consumer and business confidence which amplify the direct effects of demand shock; (3) major
recessions are not predictable. In the final chapter, Christopher Dow puts forward an insider's view on how to avoid future severe recessions: action must be taken to control booms, which if uncontrolled will lead to a period of bust, and once a major recession has begun, fiscal and monetary policy must be adjusted to mitigate the downturn. Often unpopular with economists, this is the line which many governments and central banks take: Major Recessions will help
them to have more success.
Industry Reviews
`Dow's critiqye of contemporary trends in macroeconomic thought is as pointed as it is refreshing ... The book is reasoned, erudite, packed with quantitative information of great use, and resolutely engaged with contemporary debates concerning macroeconomic theory and policy ... Major Recessions rewards the patient and disciplined reader with a concrete appreciation of the powers of the Keynesian view. At the same time, it stands in testimony to the work
of a fine scholar, now lost to us, who was never afraid to subject his ideas to the punishing scrutiny of Whitehall and Threadneedle Street.'
Michael A.Bernstein, Business History Review
`a powerful restatement of the Keynesian approach to the study of business cycles, one that clearly (and at times passionately) rejects the current popular applications and nostrums of a new classical economics.'
Michael A.Bernstein, Business History Review
`...a fascinating book...a fitting epitaph.'
David Smith. The Sunday Times. 13/12/1998.
`Because it tackles one of the most important issues facing policy-makers, the book will reach a wider audience than that received by the usual economic tome. It deserves to. The interesting thing about the Dow book is that it deals with the crucial issue of whether the downward swing of the cycle develops into a serious recession.'
Hamish McRae. The Independent. 10/12/1998.
`In his magisterial study of recessions, published last year, the late Christopher Dow brought out how different things can be.'
Martin Wolf. The Finacial Times. 26/4/1999I
Reviewed in Long Range Planning, October 1999. OK review but no quotes to pull out.