Iran's Nuclear Program

CHAPTER 1 PROLIFERATION, SANCTIONS AND ROLLBACK: A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH 1 The Puzzle of Iran's Proliferation: Optimists vs. Pessimists 2 Rolling Back Iran's Nuclear Program? Sanction Advocates vs. Sanction Skeptics 6 Iran as a Non-Unitary Actor: The Negotiated Political Order 9 Methodology and Structure 12CHAPTER 2 THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION AND THE BOMB: QURAN MEETS REALISM 16 The Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic: The High Cost of Exporting the Revolution 17 The Quranic Way Of War: Is There Room For Nuclear Weapons? 28 Bushehr and Beyond: Building a Case for Nuclear Weapons 33CHAPTER 3 RAFSANJANI'S NUCLEAR TAKEOFF: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAK NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME 46 Hiding in Plain Site: The Legitimate Infrastructure of an Illicit Program 47 Building its Own Scientific Cadre: Iran as a Nuclear Science Beacon to the World? 57 The Pakistani Connection: Making the Dream of a Muslim Bomb a Doable Reality? 61 Shopping in the A. Q. Khan Nuclear Bazaar: the Centrifuge Blueprint Purchase 66 Beyond the "Khan Bazaar": Making Pakistani Proliferation Official? 72 The North Korean Connection: Shopping For Missiles and More 76 Evading the Nonproliferation Regime: Complexity and Dissimulation 84 CHAPTER 4KHATAMI'S DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS AND THE NUCLEAR "DISAPPEARANCE ACT" 100 Khatami's Vision of Foreign Policy: The Meaning of the Dialogue among Civilizations 100 On Khatami's Watch: Speeding Up the Nuclear Project 112 The MEK's Disclosure and its Aftermath: Adjusting Tactics without Changing Strategy 117 Khatami: Out of the Loop or Part of the Deception Project? 132 Slow-Playing the West While Developing the Nuclear Project 139 CHAPTER 5 AHMADINEJAD'S PRINCIPALIST DOCTRINE: SOVEREIGN RIGHTS TO A NUCLEAR ARSENAL 156 The Nuclear Project in Ahmadinejad's World View: Nuclear Equality for All 168 The NPT Dilemma in Tehran: To Stay or Exit? 172 Security Council Resolutions: Raising the Cost of the Nuclear Project 186CHAPTER 6 INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS: THE HIGH COST OF PROLIFERATION IN A NEOPATRIMONIAL REGIME 209 Sanctions and More Sanctions: Splitting the Iranian Elites 209 The 2009 Election As A Referendum On Sanctions: Why Did The Supreme Leader Side With Ahmadinejad? 216 Cutting to the Bone: The Smart Sanctions in Action 222 The Weapons Program during Ahmadinejad's Tenure: Measuring Achievements behind the Rhetoric 230 CHAPTER 7 THE ROUHANI PRESIDENCY: THE ROAD TO ROLLBACK 259 From Smart Sanctions to Super Smart Sanctions: Putting the Squeeze on the Iranian Economy 260 Sanctions and Anomie: A Threshold Condition for Delegitimization? 274 The Election of Hassan Rouhani: A Victory for the Rollback Lobby 278 The Nuclear Program Assessed: The View of the International Atomic Energy Agency 283 Rouhani's Gamble: Banking on a Rollback and Normalization 287 The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: The Parameters of the Rollback 295 The JCPOA's Prospects in Tehran: Renegotiating the Negotiated Political Order? 299CONCLUSION 321APPENDICES 325