
Intelligent Trading Systems
Applying Artificial Intelligence to Financial Markets
By: Ondrej Martinsky
Paperback | 1 January 2010
At a Glance
214 Pages
2.5 x 14.5 x 26.5
Paperback
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The basic assumption is that if there is a model of interaction between masses and agents participating in markets, then there also exist means for prediction of the whole market's behaviour, though nevertheless the behaviour of every single agent is not predictable. From a practical point of view, this book describes technical analysis methods used to predict price movements, and discusses a soft computing approach used in a composition of automated trading systems.
This book brings alternative, soft computing computational models to trading strategies and innovatively combines two different areas of science - artificial intelligence and technical analysis. One of the main benefits of this book is a demonstration that the soft computing approach in a combination with the "soft" social sciences accounts more reliable results than the conventional mathematical models.
This book is for anyone interested in trading, financial markets and security exchanges, as well as for those who have theoretical or practical knowledge from the fields of artificial intelligence and soft computing, and want to know how these topics can be applied in financial markets.
About the Author
Ondrej Martinsky specialises in mathematics and computer science, intelligent and decision support systems. He has been working on several research projects within these areas during his stay at Brno University of Technology. He currently works as an independent contractor for a major investment bank in London. Ondrej is also the author of several scientific papers which have been presented at international conferences.
Ondrej also studies economics, financial markets and security exchanges, and in particular technical analysis of market prices in combination with the short-term trading of financial derivatives. Alongside conventional trading he is also interested in the scientific approach, wondering not only how markets move, but also why they move as they do.
During the last few years, he has been investigating how advanced computational methods can be applied in financial markets. In his book, Intelligent Trading Systems, he provides the results of this research and a unique interconnection of knowledge from the fields of computer science and financial markets.
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| Reality, the intersection of multiple theories | p. 7 |
| Efficient market hypothesis | p. 8 |
| The theory of chaos | p. 10 |
| Behavioral market theory | p. 14 |
| The dynamics of crowd behavior | p. 19 |
| Methodologies for the study of markets | p. 19 |
| The system theory point of view | p. 21 |
| The exchange of energy and information | p. 22 |
| The crowd's life cycle | p. 24 |
| Unexpected events and shocks | p. 27 |
| Generalized turnover patterns | p. 29 |
| Generalized pro-trend patterns | p. 32 |
| The wave principle | p. 35 |
| The hierarchical organization of Elliott waves | p. 37 |
| The direction of waves | p. 38 |
| The mode of waves | p. 39 |
| The hierarchy of complete cycles | p. 42 |
| Variations of motive waves | p. 44 |
| p. 48 | |
| The principle of alternation | p. 52 |
| Fibonacci mathematics in financial markets | p. 52 |
| The golden ratio | p. 53 |
| The golden rectangle and golden spiral | p. 54 |
| The application of Fibonacci numbers in financial markets | p. 55 |
| Security exchanges at a glance | p. 61 |
| Financial markets | p. 61 |
| Security exchanges | p. 63 |
| Entities participating in markets | p. 63 |
| Order-driven and quote-driven markets | p. 68 |
| World's largest and most long-standing security exchanges | p. 70 |
| Types of orders | p. 72 |
| Pit trading versus electronic trading | p. 76 |
| Exchange clearing systems | p. 78 |
| Basic tenets of automated trading | p. 85 |
| Indicators and oscillators | p. 86 |
| Moving averages | p. 86 |
| Average directional index | p. 90 |
| Average true range | p. 92 |
| Relative strength index | p. 93 |
| Bollinger bands | p. 95 |
| Money management | p. 96 |
| Statistics | p. 100 |
| The sensitivity to changes of parameters | p. 104 |
| Simulation and backtesting of trading strategies | p. 107 |
| The value of simulation in trading | p. 107 |
| Human factor in the trading chain | p. 108 |
| Modeling of intra-bar price movements | p. 109 |
| Modeling of order execution | p. 111 |
| Modeling of time and price skews | p. 113 |
| Discrete Event System Specification | p. 115 |
| DEVS formalism | p. 116 |
| Simulators and coordinators for DEVS | p. 117 |
| Simulation of the trading environment | p. 122 |
| The data provider component | p. 125 |
| The delay component | p. 126 |
| The order execution component | p. 127 |
| The ATS component | p. 129 |
| The parallel run of multiple trades | p. 133 |
| Embedding trading strategies into the simulation | p. 135 |
| Simulation case study | p. 136 |
| Optimization of trading strategies | p. 141 |
| Parametric trading strategies | p. 141 |
| Choosing an appropriate fitness function | p. 143 |
| Parametric surface | p. 146 |
| Exhaustive search | p. 149 |
| Genetic algorithms | p. 150 |
| Inspiration from nature | p. 151 |
| Computational model of genetic evolution | p. 151 |
| Optimization case study | p. 157 |
| Fuzzy approach to trading strategies | p. 161 |
| Concept of uncertainty and the basics of fuzzy logic theory | p. 162 |
| Linguistic variables and fuzzy sets | p. 163 |
| Fuzzy logic and fuzzy inference | p. 166 |
| Fuzzification | p. 168 |
| Inference engine and evaluation of rules | p. 169 |
| Defuzzification | p. 176 |
| Fuzzy-based trading strategies | p. 177 |
| Triple Screen Trading System | p. 177 |
| Fuzzy approach to the Triple Screen Trading System | p. 180 |
| Analysis of sensitivity and robustness | p. 187 |
| Sensitivity analysis of the whole market system | p. 187 |
| Sensitivity analysis of the signaling system | p. 188 |
| Case study | p. 190 |
| Summary | p. 193 |
| Bibliography and further reading | p. 195 |
| Notations, functions and mathematical symbols | p. 199 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
ISBN: 9781906659530
ISBN-10: 1906659532
Series: Harriman House
Published: 1st January 2010
Format: Paperback
Number of Pages: 214
Audience: General Adult
Publisher: Harriman House Ltd - IPS
Country of Publication: GB
Dimensions (cm): 2.5 x 14.5 x 26.5
Weight (kg): 0.34
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