Intelligence Analysis

Preface Acknowledgments Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product Chapter 1: Introduction Why Intelligence Fails What this Book Is About Summary Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict Tools of Conflict Synergy of the Tools The Function of Intelligence Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 4: The Customer Overview of Customers Understanding the Customer Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 5: The Analyst Critical and Logical Thinking Objectivity Broad Perspective Good Instincts The All-source Analysts Role The Analysis Team Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 6: The Analytic Network The US National Intelligence Network Homeland Security and Law Enforcement Military Nongovernmental Entities Network Collaboration and Sharing Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product Intelligence Research Current Intelligence Indications and Warning What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? Constraints on the Intelligence Product Summary Critical Thinking Questions Part II: The Analysis Process Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue Preliminary Questions Issue Definition Issue Decomposition Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 9: Target Models Modeling the Intelligence Target General Target Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 10: The Target Framework Creating a Target Framework Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence Acquiring Raw Intelligence Evaluating Evidence Combining the Evidence Structured Argumentation A Note about the Role of Information Technology Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 12: The Information Sources Filling Gaps Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Executing Collection Strategies Analyst-Collector Interaction Evaluating Collection Collection Requirements Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial Deception Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance Structuring the Message Presenting the Message Reviewing the Analytic Product Customer Interaction Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes Summary Critical Thinking Questions Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces Background Forces Synergy Causal Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Estimative Approach Unintended Consequences Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 17: Scenarios Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis Systems Analysis Methodology Performance Process Risk Cost Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis Link Models Network Models Network Analysis Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis Static Geospatial Models Dynamic Geospatial Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling Types of Simulations Using Simulations Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence The Process Scenarios Operations Research Simulations Prescriptive Analytics Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach Introduction A Possible Future Scenario Conclusion: Can This Work? Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs The Yugoslavia NIE The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE Capstone Critical Thinking Questions List of Commonly Used Acronyms Index About the Author