Innovations for our Future : Delphi '98: New Foresight on Science and Technology - Hariolf Grupp

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Innovations for our Future

Delphi '98: New Foresight on Science and Technology

By: Hariolf Grupp, Knut Blind, Kerstin Cuhls

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Paperback | 9 October 2001

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288 Pages

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22.86 x 15.24 x 1.91

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Foresight has experienced a great upswing in the last few years, partly in view of the Millenium. Innovations for our Future describes not only the big development trends of the future in research and technology, but also the re-discovery of the Delphi method. The Delphi method is not new, but with further developed methodology it is being used increasingly to take stock of innovative future developments. The book describes results of the widespread national survey of 1998, a German-Japanese comparison, another comparison with the preceding Delphi study as well as its utilization and implementation.

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You Can Find This Book In

Non-Fiction Computing & I.T.Computer Hardware Utilities & Tools Science Science in General Economics Political Economy Business & Management Management & Management Techniques Management of Specific Areas Research & Development Management

Computer Programming & Software Development Programming & Scripting Languages Production of Quality Control Management Engineering & Technology Technology in General Nanotechnology

Acknowledgements
History and Basic Methods	p. 1
What can we know about the future?	p. 1
On the history of modern foresight	p. 2
From forecasting to foresight	p. 4
Methodological tool-kit foresight	p. 12
Forward looking over time: the career of the Delphi method	p. 15
Benefits of foresight in general	p. 23
Outline of the Second Comprehensive Outline of Delphi Study in Germany	p. 25
What are the key questions?	p. 25
Organisation of the Delphi process	p. 27
Questionnaire	p. 32
Who was surveyed?	p. 34
Method of calculation and formulae used	p. 37
Aggregated Assessments across all Subject Areas	p. 41
Expertise of the experts taking part	p. 41
Importance of the Delphi topics	p. 41
Expected time of realisation of the visions	p. 43
Germany's position in research and development: self-perception	p. 44
What measures should be taken?	p. 46
Which areas of life are threatened by problems resulting from innovations?	p. 47
Identical topics in several subject areas	p. 47
What lies ahead? An overview	p. 49
The Subject Areas	p. 71
Information and Communication	p. 71
Service and Consumption	p. 78
Management and Production	p. 84
Chemistry and Materials	p. 89
Health and Life Processes	p. 95
Agriculture and Food	p. 102
Environment and Nature	p. 109
Energy and Resources	p. 115
Construction and Living	p. 122
Mobility and Transport	p. 128
Space	p. 135
Big Science Experiments	p. 140
Megatrends: Stereotyped Thinking Pattern of the Experts?	p. 147
Megatrends in Delphi '98 and their influence on science and technology	p. 147
Factor analysis to determine RandD experts' attitudes	p. 152
Similarities and differences in the estimation of the future development of science and technology	p. 158
Different estimations concerning innovation fields - A selection	p. 163
Selected topics with significantly different estimations by the expert types	p. 166
Comparison of the Assessments between Delphi '98 and Former Studies	p. 169
German-Japanese Comparison	p. 183
All topics	p. 184
Information and Communication	p. 187
Services and Consumption	p. 191
Management and Production	p. 194
Chemistry and Materials	p. 197
Health and Life Processes	p. 200
Agriculture and Food	p. 204
Environment and Nature	p. 207
Energy and Resources	p. 210
Construction and Living	p. 214
Mobility and Transport	p. 218
Space	p. 220
Big Science Experiments	p. 223
Selected Methodological Problems	p. 227
The application of Delphi '98 results	p. 227
New foresight paradigms in comparing recent national activities in foresight?	p. 233
Choice of experts	p. 237
The integration of existing foresight activities	p. 241
New foresight approaches	p. 243
Databases as a means of foresight	p. 247
Why do politics, academia, and business need assessment and foresight?	p. 248
Outlook	p. 251
Foresight in Germany: FUTUR's second start	p. 252
Challenges of tomorrow	p. 256
Literature	p. 263
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved.

Innovations for our Future

Delphi '98: New Foresight on Science and Technology

At a Glance

Paperback

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Defective items

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