Frontiers Collection

By: S. Albeverio (Editor), V. Jentsch (Editor), H. Kantz (Editor)

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Hardcover | 16 December 2005

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372 Pages

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23.5 x 15.88 x 2.54

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Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

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Aus den Rezensionen: "... eine Buchreihe ... Begrundet und redaktionell betreut von Physikerin Angela Lahee, hat sie das Ziel, den Lesern eine Erweiterung und Reflexion der eigenen Wissensgrenzen zu ermoglichen. ... Ziel ist ein einheitliches Verstandnis katastrophaler Umbruche, wobei die Modelle von ihren Ursprungen, ihrer raumlichen und zeitlichen Charakteristika und ihren Folgen kunftig ... zu ihrer Vorhersage und Verhinderung beitragen sollten. ... ausserordentlich lesenwert. 'was wir brauchen, ist nicht der Wille zu glauben, sondern der Wille herauszufinden' ... Die interdisziplinare, unkonventionelle Frontiers Collection ... hat ihn sogar zu ihrem Leitspruch erhoben." (Rudiger Vaas, in: Naturwissenschaftliche Rundschau, 2007, Vol. 60, Issue 4, S. 212 ff.)

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Extreme Events: Magic, Mysteries, and Challenges	p. 1
Why Study Xevents?	p. 1
What are Xevents? A First Approach	p. 2
What are Xevents? A Second Approach	p. 3
Statistical Characterisation of Xevents	p. 4
Dynamic Characterisation of Xevents	p. 4
Shaping Evolution	p. 5
Commonalities, Analogies, Universality	p. 5
Prediction, Anticipation and Management	p. 6
Trends	p. 7
Building Models	p. 7
Observations	p. 8
Risk	p. 8
How the Book is Organised	p. 9
Background	p. 9
Rationale	p. 9
The Articles	p. 10
Outlook: Research Programme	p. 17
References	p. 18
General Considerations
Anticipating Extreme Events	p. 21
The Representation of Extreme Events	p. 21
From Signs to Anticipation	p. 23
Descartes Rehabilitated	p. 25
Time, Clocks, Rhythms	p. 26
The Hybrid Solution	p. 28
Can a Computer Simulate Anticipation?	p. 35
A New Equilibrium	p. 36
A Holistic View	p. 40
References	p. 43
Mathematical Methods and Concepts for the Analysis of Extreme Events	p. 47
Introduction	p. 47
Statistical Extreme Value Theory	p. 48
Origins: Classical Univariate Case	p. 48
Dependent Data	p. 50
Extremes in Continuous Time: Stochastic Processes, Random Fields	p. 52
Probabilities of Large Deviations: Exact Behaviour	p. 53
Maxima and Excursions of Gaussian and Related Processes and Fields	p. 56
Relationship Between Continuous and Discrete Time: Prediction of Extremes	p. 58
Other Problems	p. 60
Extremes and Statistical Mechanics	p. 61
Extremes and Dynamical Systems	p. 62
Mapping Singularities and Catastrophe Theory: How Can They Be Related to Xevents?	p. 63
References	p. 65
Dynamical Interpretation of Extreme Events: Predictability and Predictions	p. 69
Introduction	p. 69
Prediction versus Predictability	p. 72
Predictability	p. 74
Prediction Schemes for Determinstic and Stochastic Time Series	p. 80
Predictions Based on Markov Chain Models	p. 82
An Example: Turbulent Wind Gusts	p. 84
Conclusions	p. 90
References	p. 93
Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises	p. 95
Introduction	p. 95
Exogenous and Endogenous Shocks in Social Networks	p. 97
A Simple Epidemic Cascade Model of Social Interactions	p. 98
Internet Download Shocks	p. 100
Book Sale Shocks	p. 102
Social Shocks	p. 107
Exogenous and Endogenous Shocks in Financial Markets	p. 109
Volatility Shocks	p. 109
Financial Crashes	p. 112
Concluding Remarks	p. 114
References	p. 116
Scenarios
Epilepsy: Extreme Events in the Human Brain	p. 123
Introduction	p. 123
Basic Mechanisms	p. 124
EEG and Epilepsy	p. 126
Nonlinear EEG Analysis	p. 128
State Space Reconstruction	p. 129
Measures Based on the Correlation Sum	p. 130
Lyapunov Exponents	p. 131
Synchronization and Interdependencies	p. 132
Testing for Nonlinearity	p. 134
Can Epileptic Seizures Be Anticipated?	p. 135
Can Epileptic Seizures Be Controlled?	p. 138
Conclusions	p. 140
References	p. 141
Extreme Events in the Geological Past	p. 145
Introduction	p. 145
Extreme Events in the Geological Past	p. 146
Events Driven by Plate Tectonics	p. 146
Changes in the Earth's Magnetic Field	p. 149
Periods and Cycles of Ice Ages	p. 151
Volcanism	p. 153
Earthquakes	p. 154
Meteoritic Impacts	p. 155
Floods	p. 157
Predictions and Forecasts on the Geological Timescale	p. 159
Research Perspectives	p. 161
References	p. 164
Wind and Precipitation Extremes in the Earth's Atmosphere	p. 169
Introduction	p. 169
Atmospheric Scales	p. 170
Wind Extremes	p. 172
Small-Scale Extremes	p. 172
Mesoscale Extremes	p. 175
Tropical Cyclones	p. 177
Extratropical Cyclones	p. 179
Jet Streams	p. 179
Precipitation Extremes	p. 181
Discussion	p. 186
References	p. 187
Freak Ocean Waves and Refraction of Gaussian Seas	p. 189
Introduction	p. 189
Gaussian Seas	p. 192
Refraction	p. 194
Refraction and Gaussian Seas	p. 197
Structure of the Density Fluctuations	p. 200
Phase Space and Real Space	p. 200
Runners and Rooster Tails	p. 202
Diffusion and the Freak Index	p. 203
Implications for Wave Statistics	p. 204
Nonuniform Sampling	p. 204
Freak Wave Events	p. 206
Statistical Evidence	p. 206
Conclusions	p. 208
References	p. 209
Predicting the Lifetime of Steel	p. 211
Introduction	p. 211
The Search for Defects: Positrons in Solids	p. 212
The Bonn Positron Microprobe	p. 217
Detection of Plastic Deformation	p. 217
Damage Prediction	p. 222
Summary	p. 230
References	p. 230
Computer Simulations of Opinions and their Reactions to Extreme Events	p. 233
Introduction	p. 233
General Opinion Dynamics	p. 234
The D Model	p. 235
The KH Model	p. 238
The S Model	p. 240
Damage Spreading	p. 241
Continuous Opinions	p. 243
Discrete Opinions	p. 250
Discussion	p. 255
References	p. 256
Networks of the Extreme: A Search for the Exceptional	p. 259
Extreme Events in Complex Systems and Our Perception of Them	p. 259
A Short Survey of Scale-Free Networks	p. 261
Cameo Graphs	p. 262
How Extremists Determine the Structures of Scale-Free Graphs	p. 266
Spreading of Epidemics in Scale-Free Networks and Robustness Under Random Attack	p. 269
Conclusions and Outlook	p. 271
Appendix	p. 272
References	p. 273
Prevention, Precaution, and Avoidance
Risk Management and Physical Modelling for Mountainous Natural Hazards	p. 277
Introduction	p. 277
Risk Management Example for Mountain Roads	p. 278
Integral Risk Management	p. 278
Cost - Benefit Framework for Traffic Protection against Natural Hazards	p. 278
Case Study: Fluela Pass, Switzerland	p. 280
Physical Modelling of Alpine Surface Processes to Support Natural Hazard Forecasting	p. 284
Summary of Alpine Surface Processes	p. 286
Estimating Snow Cover Development and Snow Stability	p. 287
Improvement in Extreme Runoff Forecasts from Alpine Catchments	p. 289
Conclusions	p. 290
References	p. 292
Prevention of Surprise	p. 295
Introduction	p. 295
Dynamic Model	p. 298
Possible Strategies	p. 300
Numerical Results	p. 301
Conclusions	p. 306
Static Model	p. 306
Set-Up	p. 307
Two Societies Game	p. 307
Erroneous Expectations	p. 311
Discussion	p. 314
References	p. 317
Disasters as Extreme Events and the Importance of Network Interactions for Disaster Response Management	p. 319
Disasters as Extreme Events	p. 319
Examples of Causality Chains and Cascade Effects	p. 321
Earthquakes	p. 321
Power Blackouts	p. 322
Hurricanes, Snowstorms, and Floods	p. 324
Terrorist Attacks	p. 327
Epidemics	p. 328
Other Disasters	p. 330
Secondary and Tertiary Disasters	p. 331
Common Elements of Disasters	p. 332
Modeling Causality Networks of Disaster Spreading	p. 334
Assessment of Disaster Management Methods	p. 337
System Dynamics Treatment of the Spread of a Disaster	p. 343
Summary and Conclusion	p. 345
References	p. 346
Index	p. 349
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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