Decision, Probability and Utility

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Paperback | 25 July 1988

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Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

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Non-Fiction Economics Reference, Information & Interdisciplinary Subjects Research & Information Decision Theory Mathematics Probability & Statistics Philosophy of Mathematics Philosophy Social & Political Philosophy Business & Management Management & Management Techniques

Management Decision Making

List of contributors	p. vii
Preface	p. ix
Introduction: Bayesian decision theory - foundations and problems	p. 1
Foundations of Bayesian decision theory
Truth and probability	p. 19
Individual decision making under uncertainty	p. 48
The sure-thing principle	p. 80
Probable knowledge	p. 86
Conceptualization of probability and utility
Introduction	p. 97
Bets and beliefs	p. 101
Slightly more realistic personal probability	p. 118
Risk aversion as a problem of conjoint measurement	p. 136
Questionable rules of rationality
Introduction	p. 159
Allais' paradox	p. 163
Sure-thing doubts	p. 166
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk	p. 183
Generalized expected utility analysis and the nature of observed violations of the independence axiom	p. 215
Unreliable probabilities
Introduction	p. 241
Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms	p. 245
Self-knowledge, uncertainty, and choice	p. 270
On indeterminate probabilities	p. 287
Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making	p. 313
Causal decision theory
Introduction	p. 335
Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility	p. 341
Causal decision theory	p. 377
Ratifiability and stability	p. 406
References	p. 426
Name index	p. 443
Subject index	p. 447
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Decision, Probability and Utility

Selected Readings

At a Glance

Paperback

Shipping

How to return your order

Defective items

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