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Computational finance deals with the mathematics of computer programs that realize financial models or systems. This book outlines the epistemic risks associated with the current valuations of different financial instruments and discusses the corresponding risk management strategies. It covers most of the research and practical areas in computational finance. Starting from traditional fundamental analysis and using algebraic and geometric tools, it is guided by the logic of science to explore information from financial data without prejudice. In fact, this book has the unique feature that it is structured around the simple requirement of objective science: the geometric structure of the data = the information contained in the data.
| Preface | p. 11 |
| Objective | p. 11 |
| History | p. 13 |
| Outline and Readers Guide | p. 15 |
| Acknowledgements | p. 16 |
| A Scientific Perspective | p. 19 |
| Introduction | p. 19 |
| Financial Modeling and Computers | p. 19 |
| Epistemic Uncertainty: Exact and Inexact Models | p. 20 |
| Exact Models, e.g., Financial Statements | p. 22 |
| Inexact Models, e.g., Behavioral Relationships | p. 25 |
| Identification, Simulation and Extrapolation | p. 26 |
| Pro Forma Financial Statement Projections | p. 26 |
| Envisioning Information: Unique Mappings | p. 26 |
| Exercises | p. 28 |
| Bibliography | p. 31 |
| Capital Budgeting and Analytic Formulas | p. 35 |
| Introduction | p. 35 |
| Present and Future Value Calculations | p. 35 |
| Continuous and Discrete Compounding | p. 37 |
| Expansions and Euler Formulas | p. 37 |
| Imaginary and Conjugate Complex Numbers and the Euler Relations | p. 39 |
| Fourier and Wavelet Analysis | p. 43 |
| Fourier Series | p. 43 |
| Fourier Transform | p. 45 |
| Wavelet Transform | p. 45 |
| Multiresolution Analysis | p. 46 |
| Exercises | p. 47 |
| Bibliography | p. 49 |
| Fundamental Security Valuation | p. 51 |
| Introduction | p. 51 |
| Valuation of Bonds | p. 51 |
| Yield Curve and Term Structure Analysis | p. 52 |
| Custom-fitting of Bond Maturities | p. 53 |
| Computing Forward Interest Rates | p. 53 |
| Risk-Based Credit Ratings | p. 53 |
| Valuation of Stocks by Dividend Discount Models | p. 54 |
| Cash Flow and Ratio Analysis | p. 55 |
| Exercises | p. 56 |
| Bibliography | p. 56 |
| Analysis of Exact Data I | p. 57 |
| Introduction | p. 57 |
| First Two Moments | p. 58 |
| Expected Value and Variance | p. 58 |
| Covariance Matrix and Correlations | p. 60 |
| Iso-Information Ellipsoids | p. 61 |
| Iso-Information Ellipsoids and Projections | p. 62 |
| Linear Loci of Certainty | p. 63 |
| Bivariate Least Squares Projections | p. 67 |
| Envisoning Bivariate Modeling Uncertainty | p. 70 |
| Exercises | p. 71 |
| Bibliography | p. 72 |
| Analysis of Inexact Data II | p. 75 |
| Introduction | p. 75 |
| Complete Least Squares Projections | p. 75 |
| Two Important System Identification Theorems | p. 75 |
| Noise and Signal Projections | p. 77 |
| Noise/Data Ratios in Two-Dimensional Data | p. 79 |
| Hypotheses Non Fingo | p. 79 |
| Examples of an Uncertain (n,q) = (3,2) Model | p. 80 |
| Observed Relative Frequencies and Theoretical Distributions | p. 86 |
| Model Quality Measurement by Noise/Data Ratios | p. 87 |
| The Directionless t-Statistic | p. 87 |
| Modeling n-Dimensional Financial Risk | p. 88 |
| Noise/Data Ratios In n-Dimensional Data | p. 88 |
| Modeling 3-Dimensional Uncertainty and Inexactness | p. 89 |
| Stationarity Tests | p. 90 |
| Stationarity Windowing | p. 90 |
| Inertia-Based Prediction | p. 90 |
| Exercises | p. 91 |
| Basic Understanding of CLS | p. 91 |
| Bank Performance Identification From Inexact Data--Trivariate Data Set | p. 92 |
| Identification of 1928 Cobb-Douglas Production Model--Trivariate Data Set | p. 93 |
| Bibliography | p. 95 |
| Optimal Portfolio Formation | p. 99 |
| Introduction | p. 99 |
| Mean-Variance Analysis | p. 99 |
| Efficient Frontier With Two Assets | p. 100 |
| Efficient Frontier With Multiple Assets | p. 102 |
| Value-at-Risk and RiskMetrics | p. 105 |
| Value-at-Risk | p. 105 |
| Singularity Problems of RiskMetrics and CreditMetrics | p. 108 |
| Exercises | p. 110 |
| Bibliography | p. 110 |
| Systematic Financial Risk Analysis | p. 113 |
| Introduction | p. 113 |
| Fundamental Market Model | p. 113 |
| Systematic and Unsystematic Risk | p. 114 |
| Absolute and Relative Risk | p. 114 |
| Sharpe Ratio | p. 115 |
| CAPM, Beta and Epistemic Risk | p. 115 |
| Mutual Funds Selection Based on Beta | p. 117 |
| Related Topics | p. 123 |
| Multi-Factor Models | p. 123 |
| Mdmv Model Comparison Between CAPM and APT | p. 124 |
| Risk Aversion, Neutrality and Gambling | p. 129 |
| Exercises | p. 131 |
| Bibliography | p. 133 |
| Complete Valuation and Dynamic Risk Theory | p. 135 |
| Introduction | p. 135 |
| Expected Return and Risk | p. 138 |
| Complete Capital Market Pricing | p. 142 |
| Risk-Neutral Pricing | p. 144 |
| Single Price Law of Efficient Markets | p. 144 |
| Arbitrage-Free Securities Design | p. 148 |
| Markov State Transition Theory | p. 149 |
| Exact Markov Dynamics | p. 149 |
| Limiting Markov Chain Distribution | p. 150 |
| Ehrenfest's Heat Exchange Example | p. 154 |
| Default and Credit Migration Frequencies | p. 155 |
| Exercises | p. 158 |
| Bibliography | p. 160 |
| Option Pricing I | p. 163 |
| Introduction | p. 163 |
| Pricing By Arbitrage | p. 164 |
| Single-Period Binomial Option Pricing | p. 166 |
| Using Portfolio Theory | p. 167 |
| Pseudo-Probabilities | p. 169 |
| Using CCMP Theory | p. 170 |
| Multi-Period Binomial Option Pricing | p. 171 |
| Put-Call Parity | p. 174 |
| European, American and Asian Options | p. 175 |
| Random Walks and Brownian Motion | p. 178 |
| Exercises | p. 180 |
| Bibliography | p. 181 |
| Option Pricing II | p. 183 |
| Introduction | p. 183 |
| Black-Scholes Option Pricing | p. 185 |
| Non-Dividend-Paying Stock | p. 185 |
| Continuous-Dividend-Paying Stock | p. 190 |
| Historical and Implied Volatility | p. 191 |
| Volatility Computation by "Trial and Error" | p. 191 |
| Volatility Computation by At-the-Money Formula | p. 192 |
| Options' Greek Alphabet | p. 193 |
| Dynamic Hedging Strategies | p. 197 |
| Exercises | p. 198 |
| Bibliography | p. 199 |
| Bond Portfolio Valuation and Management | p. 201 |
| Introduction | p. 201 |
| Bond Price Volatility | p. 201 |
| Risks in Fixed Income Securities | p. 201 |
| Measures of Interest Rate Risk | p. 202 |
| Macauley and Modified Durations | p. 204 |
| Modified Duration | p. 204 |
| Interpretation and Various Definitions | p. 204 |
| Macauley Duration | p. 205 |
| Dollar Duration | p. 207 |
| Effective Duration | p. 207 |
| Option-Adjusted Spreads and Imbedded Options | p. 207 |
| Convexity | p. 210 |
| Definition of Convexity | p. 211 |
| Positive and Negative Convexity | p. 211 |
| Default Risk and Effective Duration of Bonds | p. 211 |
| Bond Portfolio Immunization | p. 213 |
| Duration of Common Stocks | p. 215 |
| Interest Rate Risk Management | p. 216 |
| Horizon Hedging | p. 217 |
| Exercises | p. 219 |
| Bibliography | p. 220 |
| Forwards and Futures | p. 223 |
| Introduction | p. 223 |
| Forwards and Futures Valuation | p. 223 |
| Forwards and Futures Pricing | p. 224 |
| Foreign Exchange Futures | p. 226 |
| Risks in the Futures Markets | p. 227 |
| Basis Risk | p. 227 |
| Calendar Spread Risk | p. 228 |
| Hedging with Futures | p. 228 |
| Imperfect Insurance | p. 230 |
| Portfolio Insurance? | p. 232 |
| Exercises | p. 234 |
| Bibliography | p. 235 |
| Swaps | p. 237 |
| Introduction | p. 237 |
| Reasons for Using Swaps | p. 237 |
| Valuation of Interest Rate Swaps | p. 238 |
| Interest Rate Swaps | p. 238 |
| Valuation of Interest Rate Swaps | p. 239 |
| Constructing a Swap Yield Curve | p. 243 |
| Computing the Discount Function | p. 245 |
| Valuation of Currency Swaps | p. 246 |
| Quoting Conventions | p. 246 |
| Valuation of Currency Swaps | p. 248 |
| Risks of Swaps Contracts | p. 250 |
| Market and Credit Risk | p. 250 |
| Duration of a Swap | p. 251 |
| Exercises | p. 251 |
| Bibliography | p. 252 |
| Multi-Currency Investments and Exact Performance Attribution | p. 253 |
| Introduction | p. 253 |
| Multi-Currency Investment Return Accounting | p. 255 |
| Investment Strategy Return Attribution | p. 255 |
| Exact Cash Growth Accounting | p. 256 |
| Strategy Return Matrices | p. 257 |
| Portfolio of Multi-Currency Investment Strategies | p. 259 |
| Growth Accounting of Portfolio Investments | p. 259 |
| Vectorization of Sequence of Strategy Matrices | p. 260 |
| Strategy Risk Matrices | p. 263 |
| Singularity of Strategy Risk Matrix | p. 266 |
| Multi-Currency Portfolio Optimization | p. 267 |
| Extended Markowitz Procedure | p. 267 |
| Exact Investment Performance Attribution | p. 272 |
| Exercises | p. 278 |
| Bibliography | p. 280 |
| Algebraic Geometric Measurements of the Bivariate Model | p. 283 |
| Flow Chart of Linear Model Identification | p. 287 |
| 3D Noise/Signal Ratio | p. 289 |
| Bibliography | p. 290 |
| 1986 Manifesto for Identification of Models From Inexact Data | p. 291 |
| Background | p. 291 |
| Proposed Research Path | p. 292 |
| Biographical Background | p. 292 |
| List of (Computational) Finance Journals on the Internet | p. 293 |
| Electronic Journals | p. 293 |
| Index | p. 295 |
| Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved. |
ISBN: 9789810244972
ISBN-10: 9810244975
Published: 7th December 2000
Format: Paperback
Language: English
Number of Pages: 342
Audience: College, Tertiary and University
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd
Country of Publication: SG
Dimensions (cm): 22.86 x 15.24 x 1.8
Weight (kg): 0.46
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