| Preface | p. xi |
| Mathematical Symbols | p. xv |
| Theory | |
| Introduction | p. 3 |
| At the Sources | p. 3 |
| The Puzzle of Population Cycles | p. 3 |
| Modeling Nature | p. 4 |
| The Balance of Nature | p. 5 |
| General Philosophy of the Approach | p. 6 |
| Defining the Phenomenon to Be Explained | p. 8 |
| Formalizing Hypotheses as Mathematical Models | p. 11 |
| Contrasting Models with Data | p. 14 |
| Population Dynamics from First Principles | p. 17 |
| Introduction | p. 17 |
| Exponential Growth | p. 19 |
| Derivation of the Exponential Model | p. 20 |
| Comparison with the Law of Inertia | p. 22 |
| "Laws": Postulates, Theorems, Empirical Generalizations? | p. 25 |
| p. Self-Limitation |
| Upper and Lower Density Bounds | p. 26 |
| Formalizing the Notion of Self-Limitation | p. 27 |
| The Logistic Model | p. 29 |
| Consumer-Resource Oscillations | p. 30 |
| Three More Postulates | p. 31 |
| The Lotka-Volterra Predation Model | p. 33 |
| Process Order | p. 36 |
| Synthesis | p. 44 |
| Single-Species Populations | p. 47 |
| Models without Population Structure | p. 47 |
| Continuous-Time Models | p. 48 |
| Discrete-Time Models | p. 52 |
| Delayed Differential Models | p. 56 |
| Exogenous Drivers | p. 58 |
| Stochastic Variation | p. 60 |
| Deterministic Exogenous Factors | p. 61 |
| Age-and Stage-Structured Models | p. 64 |
| Mathematical Frameworks | p. 65 |
| An Example: Flour Beetle Dynamics | p. 68 |
| Second-Order Models | p. 70 |
| Maternal Effect Hypothesis | p. 70 |
| Kin Favoritism Model | p. 72 |
| Synthesis | p. 76 |
| Trophic Interactions | p. 78 |
| Responses of Predators to Fluctuations in Prey Density | p. 79 |
| Functional Response | p. 79 |
| Aggregative Response | p. 88 |
| Numerical Response | p. 90 |
| Continuous-Time Models | p. 93 |
| Generalized Lotka-Volterra Models | p. 94 |
| Models Not Conforming to the LV Framework | p. 99 |
| Anatomy of a Predator-Prey Cycle | p. 102 |
| Generalist Predators | p. 104 |
| Discrete-Time Models: Parasitoids | p. 108 |
| Functional and Numerical Responses | p. 109 |
| Dynamical Models | p. 111 |
| Grazing Systems | p. 112 |
| Grazer''s Functional Response | p. 113 |
| Dynamics of Vegetation Regrowth | p. 117 |
| Dynamics of Grazer-Vegetation Interactions | p. 120 |
| Plant Quality | p. 123 |
| Pathogens and Parasites | p. 127 |
| Transmission Rate | p. 127 |
| Microparasitism Models | p. 128 |
| Macroparasitism Models | p. 131 |
| Tritrophic Models | p. 133 |
| Synthesis | p. 136 |
| Connecting Mathematical Theory to Empirical Dynamics | p. 137 |
| Introduction | p. 137 |
| Qualitative Types of Deterministic Dynamics | p. 139 |
| Attractors | p. 139 |
| Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions | p. 140 |
| Population Dynamics in the Presence of Noise | p. 146 |
| Simple Population Dynamics | p. 146 |
| Stable Periodic Oscillations | p. 147 |
| Chaotic Oscillations | p. 148 |
| Quasi-Chaotic Oscillations | p. 151 |
| Regular Exogenous Forcing | p. 153 |
| Synthesis | p. 153 |
| Population Regulation | p. 154 |
| Definition of Density Dependence | p. 155 |
| Regulation: Evolution of the Concept | p. 156 |
| The Stationarity Definition of Regulation | p. 156 |
| Beyond Stationarity: Stochastic Boundedness | p. 157 |
| Synthesis | p. 158 |
| Data | |
| Empirical Approaches: An Overview | p. 163 |
| Introduction | p. 163 |
| Analysis of Population Fluctuations | p. 164 |
| The Structure of Density Dependence | p. 164 |
| Probes: Quantitative Measures of Time-Series Patterns | p. 165 |
| Phenomenological versus Mechanistic Approaches | p. 167 |
| Experimental Approaches | p. 168 |
| Phenomenological Time-Series Analysis | p. 173 |
| Basics | p. 173 |
| Variance Decomposition | p. 173 |
| Data Manipulations Prior to Analysis | p. 175 |
| Diagnostic Tools | p. 178 |
| Fitting Models to Data | p. 183 |
| General Framework | p. 183 |
| Choosing the Base Lag | p. 186 |
| Functional Forms | p. 188 |
| Model Selection by Cross-Validation | p. 191 |
| Synthesis | p. 195 |
| Fitting Mechanistic Models | p. 197 |
| Model Selection | p. 198 |
| Analysis of Ancillary Data | p. 200 |
| One-Step-Ahead Prediction | p. 201 |
| Trajectory Matching | p. 203 |
| Fitting by Nonlinear Forecasting | p. 205 |
| Casestudies | |
| Larch Budmoth | p. 213 |
| Introduction | p. 213 |
| Analysis of Time-Series Data | p. 217 |
| Hypotheses and Models | p. 220 |
| Plant Quality | p. 220 |
| Parasitism | p. 229 |
| Putting It All Together: A Parasitism-Plant Quality Model | p. 235 |
| Synthesis | p. 237 |
| Southern Pine Beetle | p. 239 |
| Introduction | p. 239 |
| Analysis of Time-Series Data | p. 240 |
| Hypotheses and Models | p. 243 |
| General Review of Hypotheses | p. 243 |
| Interaction with Hosts | p. 247 |
| Interaction with Parasitoids | p. 253 |
| The Predation Hypothesis | p. 255 |
| An Experimental Test of the Predation Hypothesis | p. 259 |
| Rationale | p. 259 |
| Results | p. 264 |
| Synthesis | p. 271 |
| Red Grouse | p. 272 |
| Numerical Patterns | p. 273 |
| Hypotheses and Models | p. 281 |
| Overview | p. 281 |
| Parasite-Grouse Hypothesis | p. 282 |
| Kin Favoritism Hypothesis | p. 285 |
| Experiments | p. 289 |
| Density Manipulation | p. 289 |
| Parasite Manipulation | p. 291 |
| Synthesis | p. 294 |
| Voles and Other Rodents | p. 296 |
| Introduction | p. 296 |
| Analysis of Time-Series Data | p. 297 |
| Methodological Issues | p. 297 |
| Numerical Patterns | p. 301 |
| Hypotheses and Models | p. 310 |
| Maternal Effect Hypothesis | p. 311 |
| Interaction with Food | p. 316 |
| Predation | p. 317 |
| Fitting the Predation Model by NLF | p. 321 |
| Lemmings | p. 325 |
| Numerical Patterns | p. 326 |
| Testing Alternative Trophic Hypotheses | p. 328 |
| Lemming-Vegetation Dynamics at Barrow | p. 331 |
| Synthesis | p. 335 |
| Summary of Findings | p. 335 |
| Towar a General Trophic Theory of Rodent Dynamics | p. 339 |
| Snowshoe Hare | p. 344 |
| Introduction | p. 344 |
| Numerical Patterns | p. 345 |
| Models | p. 349 |
| Experiments | p. 356 |
| Synthesis | p. 362 |
| Ungulates | p. 365 |
| Introduction | p. 365 |
| Interaction with Food | p. 368 |
| Interaction with Predators | p. 371 |
| Numerical Dynamics | p. 376 |
| Synthesis | p. 381 |
| General Conclusions | p. 383 |
| What Mechanisms Drive Oscillations in Nature? | p. 383 |
| Structure of Density Dependence | p. 386 |
| What about Chaos? | p. 390 |
| Population Ecology: A Mature Science | p. 392 |
| Glossary | p. 397 |
| References | p. 405 |
| Index | p. 437 |
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