Series Editors' Introduction vii
Preface ix
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
Chapter 2: The Bayesian Paradigm 7
2.1 Complete Models 10
2.2 Model Comparison and Averaging 16
2.3 Simulation 19
2.4 Model Evaluation 23
Chapter 3: Prior Predictive Analysis and Model Evaluation 34
3.1 Data and Models 35
3.2 Prior Predictive Analysis 47
3.3 Comparison with an Incomplete Model 71
3.4 Appendix: A Gaussian Copula for Evaluating Predictive Densities of
Vector Functions of Interest 84
Chapter 4: Incomplete Structural Models 86
4.1 The Essential Elements of DSGE Models 88
4.2 Strong Econometric Interpretation 95
4.3 Weak Econometric Interpretation 98
4.4 Minimal Econometric Interpretation 109
4.5 Implications for Structural Modeling 118
Chapter 5: An Incomplete Model Space 122
5.1 Context and Motivation 123
5.2 Pools of Two Models 130
5.3 Examples of Two-Model Pools 135
5.4 Pools of Multiple Models 142
5.5 Multiple-Model Pools: An Example 150
5.6 Pooling and Model Improvement 155
5.7 Consequences of an Incomplete Model Space 158
References 161
