Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the MRF Ensemble

United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) is updating the Arsenal Exchange Model (AEM) that it uses for allocating strategic weapons to targets. AEM does not model the range constraints on bomber routes. These routes are used to deliver gravity munitions. In order to include these constraints in the new method, the Weapons Allocation Model (WAM), a pool of routes that satisfy the range constraints needs to be created. The number of possible routes to consider is extremely large and it is not possible to enumerate them all. Therefore, the method to form the pool of routes needs to reduce the number of routes considered and selected to a manageable number. This research examines several methods for generating routes in an attempt to find the best method. All of these methods use implicit enumeration to create a pool of routes.

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