The Certainty Trap

Why We Need to Question Ourselves More-and How We Can Judge Others Less

By: Joe Walsh (Foreword by), Ilana Redstone

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Hardcover | 10 December 2024

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When we're in the Certainty Trap, we tend to view people who disagree with us as hateful, ignorant, or just plain stupid. When it comes to heated social and political issues in particular, many of us know this feeling well-a consuming state of righteous indignation and moral outrage. And this response makes sense because our very certainty tells us that there are simple and obvious causes and solutions to the hot-button issues we care about most. But the things we care about the most are-far more often than not-morally and ethically complex. If the problems that divide us are inherently complicated, then a sense that the answers are obvious-and that anyone who disagrees must be deficient in some way-is misplaced. It's an oversimplification that both leads to and reflects faulty thinking. When we're certain, we not only fail to recognize the possibility that we're wrong but also fail to be clear about the principles and values that drive our disagreement in the first place. By committing to challenging and clarifying our thinking-by avoiding the trap certainty sets for us-we can increase social trust, reduce political polarization, and better address the world's pressing challenges.

Industry Reviews

"Smart and timely." -- Bret Stephens, New York Times

"In a world that often feels like it's spinning out of control, The Certainty Trap is a steadying hand on the wheel. It's a book that will challenge you, change you, and give you hope for the future. If you're ready to break free from the Certainty Trap and see the world in a new light, this book is the perfect place to start." -- Barbara Oakley, PhD, New York Times-bestselling author of A Mind for Numbers

"In The Certainty Trap, Ilana Redstone takes the reader through ways to think about how we think and why we think that way in order to better understand both our own values, beliefs, goals, and principles and those of others. Redstone does not ask us to embrace epistemological or moral relativism or refrain from drawing conclusions, but to avoid the mind-closing trap of certainty, and instead hold the views we feel warrant it with a confidence that leaves room for doubt, questioning, and revision. Clarity and precision, Redstone tells us, matter enormously, and those qualities are found in abundance in her important new book." -- Helen Pluckrose, author of The Counterweight Handbook and Cynical Theories

"'I don't know anything and neither do you' is how Redstone summarizes her book. Many people address this uncertainty by trying to find patterns or holding 'strong opinions loosely held, ' as I do. But Redstone offers us much-needed tools to help us make sense of a complex, uncertain world." -- Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape and Andreessen Horowitz

"In an increasingly polarized country, The Certainty Trap offers us a way forward and a pathway back to one another. Ilana Redstone gives us the rare combination of essential research, engaging prose, and the potential for real world application. It turns out there is something all of us can do at this crucial moment: question our assumptions and open up our minds -- the most democratic act of all." -- Eli Saslow, two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize and author of Rising out of Hatred

"If Redstone's wisdom could enlighten us more, not just inside our countries, but also in international affairs, the world would be a better place." -- Carlo Rovelli, Italian theoretical physicist and writer

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