Water Scarcity, Climate Change and Conflict in the Middle East

Contents

Introduction: Background on the Middle East & North Africa region
The countries of the region
A varied set of countries ⢠Wide structural differences and diverse natural endowments
Global and regional trends
Sluggish growth, poor fiscal outlook and low investor confidence ⢠Trade and food security â¢
Political change ⢠Demographic trends and pressures ⢠The effects of conflict
Water in the region
Water scarcity is a common thread ⢠Demographic pressures are contributing to scarcity â¢
Economic changes are also exacerbating scarcity ⢠The faint but clear voice of the environment and of waterâs ecological services ⢠Water scarcity and climate change â¢
Water scarcity and the need for an integrated approach

Agriculture
The importance of agriculture in the Middle East & North Africa ⢠Pressures on agriculture â¢
Agriculture and water scarcity ⢠Agriculture and climate change ⢠Competition for water and the case for transfer of water out of agriculture ⢠Agriculture and rural poverty â¢
Perceived links between water, agriculture and food security
Water and conflict

PART I: CHALLENGES

Chapter 1: The challenge of water and agriculture and the drivers of water scarcity
Water resources and uses
Water uses by sector
Climate and farming systems
The contribution of agriculture
Food security and agricultural water management
Food production and consumption in the Middle East & North Africa ⢠Food security and insecurity ⢠Impacts of conflict on food security ⢠Can food insecurity drive conflict? â¢
Links between agriculture and food security
Recent trends: an agriculture already under stress
Land and water use in agriculture ⢠Productivity, technology and innovation ⢠Market orientation ⢠Policies, institutions and public goods ⢠Agricultural heritage and conservation
Irrigation in the Middle East & North Africa
The importance of irrigation in the region ⢠Agricultural water withdrawals ⢠Types of irrigation in the region
Drivers of scarcity and the challenge of water for agriculture

Chapter 2: Climate change and its expected impacts on the farming systems of the region
Climate change events anticipated in the Middle East & North Africa
Expected impacts of climate change on agricultural water and farming
Water resources ⢠Irrigation ⢠Crop and livestock yields and production ⢠Impacts by farming system
Readiness for climate change
Strategic preparedness
Research on issues of agriculture and climate change
The regionâs contribution to climate change

Chapter 3: Water and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa
A deadly water conflict
The nature and role of conflict in the water sector of the region
Why does conflict so often arise over water?
The nature of the resource ⢠Social and institutional specifics of water ⢠Political economy and power relations over water
Types of water conflict in the region
A classification of transboundary conflict ⢠A classification of conflict at the national or sectoral level ⢠A classification of conflict at the local level
The challenge of transboundary water
A fertile field for conflict in the region ⢠Scant cooperation to date ⢠Pointers for the future
Conflict at the national or inter-sectoral level
Conflicts over access to water and water-related services ⢠Conflict of water-related policy with other interests ⢠Conflict with environmental needs or resource sustainability
Conflict at the local level
Conflicts arising from local adoption of new technology ⢠Conflict provoked by state intervention at the local level
Growing pressures to water conflict in the region
Changes in patterns of demand ⢠Changes on the supply side ⢠The changing institutional context and power relations
Water and conflict in the Syrian crisis
Water and the causes of the Syrian crisis ⢠The role of drought in the Syria crisis â¢
How could this happen in a country that has so developed its water resources for agriculture? ⢠Conclus