| Acknowledgments | p. xiii |
| Introduction | |
| Why Study Foreign Policy from a Decision-Making Perspective? | p. 3 |
| Foreign Policy Decision Making | p. 3 |
| Why Study Foreign Policy Decision Making? | p. 5 |
| The Rational and Cognitive Schools | p. 7 |
| Comparative Foreign Policy | p. 9 |
| Limitations of the Decision-Making Approach | p. 10 |
| Plan of the Book | p. 10 |
| The Decision Environment | |
| Types of Decisions and Levels of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making | p. 15 |
| Types of Decisions | p. 15 |
| Unilateral, Negotiated, Structured, and Unstructured Decisions | p. 16 |
| Holistic, Heuristic and Wholistic Decisions | p. 17 |
| Trade-offs in Decision Making | p. 17 |
| The Level of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making | p. 18 |
| Individual-Level Decisions | p. 18 |
| Group-level Decisions | p. 19 |
| Coalition Decision Making | p. 20 |
| Case Study: Israel's Foreign Policy Making by Coalition | p. 21 |
| Another Example of Coalition Decision Making: Iceland's Cod War, 1971-1974 | p. 23 |
| The Decision Environment | p. 25 |
| Time Constraints | p. 25 |
| Information Constraints | p. 26 |
| Ambiguity | p. 27 |
| Familiarity | p. 27 |
| Dynamic Setting | p. 27 |
| Interactive Setting | p. 28 |
| Risk | p. 28 |
| Stress | p. 28 |
| Accountability | p. 30 |
| The Role of Advisory Groups | p. 31 |
| Information Search Patterns | p. 32 |
| Holistic versus Nonholistic Search | p. 33 |
| Order-Sensitive versus Order-Insensitive Search | p. 33 |
| Alternative-Based versus Dimension-Based Search | p. 33 |
| Maximizing versus Satisficing Search Patterns | p. 34 |
| Compensatory versus Noncompensatory Rule | p. 34 |
| Noncompensatory Decision Rules | p. 35 |
| Conjunctive Decision Rule (CON) | p. 35 |
| Disjunctive Decision Rule (DIS) | p. 36 |
| Elimination-by-aspect (EBA) Decision Rule | p. 36 |
| Lexicographic (LEX) Decision Rule | p. 36 |
| Conclusion | p. 37 |
| Biases in Decision Making | p. 38 |
| Case Study: The U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq In 2003 – the Effect of Cognitive Biases on Foreign Policy Making | p. 41 |
| Groupthink | p. 44 |
| Groupthink in American Foreign Policy | p. 45 |
| Beyond Groupthink | p. 47 |
| Groupthink and Multiple Advocacy | p. 48 |
| Polythink | p. 49 |
| Case Study: Polythink at Camp David, 2000 | p. 50 |
| Did Polythink Lead to the Collapse of the Camp David Talks? | p. 52 |
| Group Polarization Effect | p. 53 |
| Conclusion | p. 54 |
| Models of Decision Making | |
| The Rational Actor Model | p. 57 |
| The Rational Actor Model | p. 57 |
| Case Study: New Zealand's Defiance of the United States and ANZUS | p. 59 |
| The Expected Utility Model of War Decision Making | p. 60 |
| Opportunity Costs | p. 61 |
| Game-Theoretic Models | p. 62 |
| Prisoner's Dilemma | p. 64 |
| Chicken | p. 65 |
| Tit-for-Tat | p. 66 |
| Conclusion | p. 67 |
| Alternatives to the Rational Actor Model | p. 68 |
| Bounded Rationality and the Cybernetic Model | p. 68 |
| Bureaucratic Politics | p. 70 |
| Organizational Politics | p. 73 |
| Prospect Theory | p. 75 |
| Sunk Costs | p. 77 |
| Integrating the Rational and Cognitive Models: Poliheuristic Theory | p. 78 |
| What is Poliheuristic Decision Making? | p. 79 |
| Case Study: The Decision not to Invade Iraq in 1991 - An Application of Various Decision-Making Models to a Foreign Policy Event | p. 81 |
| Background | p. 81 |
| A Rational Actor Interpretation | p. 82 |
| A Cybernetic Explanation | p. 83 |
| A Prospect Theory Explanation | p. 84 |
| A Poliheuristic Explanation | p. 85 |
| An Organizational Politics Explanation | p. 86 |
| A Bureaucratic Politics Model | p. 87 |
| Applied Decision Analysis | p. 87 |
| A Simple Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Decision Matrix | p. 88 |
| ADA: A Closer Look | p. 89 |
| Application to Decisions of Leaders of Terrorist Organizations: Bin Laden and al-Qaeda | p. 92 |
| Conclusion | p. 93 |
| Determinants of Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
| Psychological Factors Affecting Foreign Policy Decisions | p. 97 |
| Psychological Factors | p. 97 |
| Cognitive Consistency | p. 98 |
| Evoked Set | p. 99 |
| Emotions | p. 99 |
| Images | p. 101 |
| Beliefs, Belief Systems, and Schema | p. 101 |
| Operational Code Analysis | p. 102 |
| Analogies and Learning | p. 103 |
| The “Munich Analogy” and Use of Analogies in U.S. Foreign Policy | p. 104 |
| Case Study: Analogies in U.S.-Cuban Relations, 1954-1967 | p. 106 |
| The Analogies Provided by Guatemala, 1954 | p. 106 |
| The Bay of Pigs | p. 108 |
| The Cuban Foco and Africa, 1965 | p. 109 |
| Bolivia, 1966-1967 | p. 111 |
| Leaders' Personality | p. 114 |
| Leadership Style | p. 115 |
| Types of Leaders: Crusader, Strategic, Pragmatic, and Opportunistic | p. 116 |
| Cognitive Mapping | p. 119 |
| Conclusion | p. 120 |
| International, Domestic, and Cultural Factors Influencing Foreign Policy Decision Making | p. 121 |
| International Factors | p. 121 |
| Deterrence and Arms Races | p. 121 |
| Strategic Surprise | p. 125 |
| Alliances | p. 126 |
| Regime Type of the Adversary | p. 127 |
| Domestic Factors | p. 129 |
| Diversionary Tactics | p. 129 |
| Economic Interests and Foreign Policy Decisions | p. 130 |
| The Role of Public Opinion | p. 131 |
| Electoral Cycles | p. 132 |
| The Effect of Domestic and International Factors on Foreign Policy Decisions: Two-Level Games | p. 133 |
| Case Study: The Domestic and International Underpinnings of Decision Making - the Falklands War, 1982 | p. 134 |
| Diversionary Behavior | p. 134 |
| Deterrence and Misperception | p. 135 |
| Electoral Impact | p. 136 |
| Decisions on the Use of Economic Instruments of Foreign Policy | p. 136 |
| The Decision to Use Sanctions as an Instrument of Foreign Policy | p. 137 |
| The Decision to Use Aid in Foreign Policy | p. 138 |
| Negotiation and Mediation Decisions | p. 139 |
| Decisions on Foreign Policy Substitutability | p. 141 |
| Gender Differences in Decision Making | p. 143 |
| Cultural Differences in Decision Making | p. 144 |
| Conclusion | p. 145 |
| Marketing Foreign Policy | |
| Framing, Marketing, and Media Effects on Foreign Policy Decision Making | p. 149 |
| Marketing Effects | p. 149 |
| Framing Effects | p. l50 |
| The Frame as a Political Lens | p. 151 |
| Who is Framing Whom? Framing the Public | p. 152 |
| Framing beyond the Borders | p. 155 |
| Advisory Group Framing and Manipulating | p. 156 |
| Summary | p. 159 |
| Media Effects | p. 160 |
| Case Study: The Marketing of the U.S. Invasion of Grenada, 1983 | p. 162 |
| Background | p. 162 |
| The Key Decision Makers | p. 163 |
| The Marketing of the Decision | p. 163 |
| The Decision Process | p. 164 |
| Could the Process Actually Have Been a Compensatory One? | p. 166 |
| Conclusion | p. 166 |
| Conclusion | |
| Conclusion | p. 169 |
| What Does it All Mean?: A Case Study of the U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq in 2003 | p. 171 |
| Conclusion | p. 175 |
| Appendix: Foreign Policy Simulation and Exercise | p. 177 |
| References | p. 179 |
| Index | p. l99 |
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