Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems

Questions on Working with the Unexpected

By: Reuben R. McDaniel (Editor), Dean Driebe (Editor)

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Hardcover | 11 March 2005

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216 Pages

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23.5 x 16.51 x 1.91

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Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

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Prefeface and Acknowledgements	p. V
List of Contributing Authors	p. ix
Introduction to Uncertainty and Surprise	p. 1
Uncertainty and Surprise: An Introduction	p. 3
Surprises in a Half Century	p. 13
Central Themes on Uncertainty and Surprise	p. 17
Complexity, Uncertainty and Surprise: An Integrated View	p. 19
The Evolutionary Complexity of Social Economic Systems: The Inevitability of Uncertainty and Surprise	p. 31
Managing the Unexpected: Complexity as Distributed Sensemaking	p. 51
Differing Views of Uncertainty and Surprise	p. 67
Fundamental Unknowability in Science and Social Science	p. 69
Fundamental "Uncertainty" in Science	p. 71
The Complementary Nature of Coordination Dynamics: Toward a Science of the In-Between	p. 77
The Tyranny of Many Dimensionless Constants: A Constraint on Knowability	p. 87
Organizational Issues of Uncertainty	p. 93
ViewfromtheInside: The Task of Managing Uncertainty and Surprise	p. 95
An Introduction to the Mathematics and Meaning of Chaos	p. 99
Fundamental Uncertainty and the Delivery of Health Care	p. 107
The Social Construction of Uncertainty in Healthcare Delivery	p. 109
Primary Care Practice: Uncertainty and Surprise	p. 123
Medical Errors and Microsystems: The Best Things Cannot be Told	p. 131
Organization and Leadership in Hospitals	p. 145
Fundamental Uncertainty in Business and Business Decision Making	p. 151
Fundamental Uncertainty in Business: Real Options	p. 153
Transforming Your Regional Economy through Uncertainty and Surprise: Learning from Complexity Science, Network Theory and the Field	p. 165
Uncertainty and Certainty	p. 177
Conversations on Uncertainty and Surprise	p. 181
Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion	p. 183
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Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems

Questions on Working with the Unexpected

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Hardcover

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Defective items

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Paperback

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