| Preface | p. 9 |
| International Systems: Vicious Circles and Virtuous Circles | p. 15 |
| The Modern State System | p. 16 |
| Anarchy as a Potentially Vicious Circle | p. 22 |
| The Creation of Virtuous Circles | p. 24 |
| Background and Legacy of the European Achievement | p. 29 |
| A Complex System of Interactions Supporting Peace | p. 33 |
| The Kantian Triangle | p. 35 |
| From Democratic Peace to Kantian Peace | p. 43 |
| Democracy as the Focus | p. 44 |
| Two Dimensions: Pairs of States and Individual States | p. 47 |
| Theories of the Dyadic Democratic Peace: Culture or Structure? | p. 53 |
| The Convergence and Expansion of Theories | p. 58 |
| Common Interests | p. 59 |
| Interventions | p. 62 |
| Conflict Management | p. 64 |
| Why Do Democracies Win the Wars They Fight? | p. 66 |
| The Domestic Conflict-Foreign Conflict Puzzle | p. 68 |
| Civil Wars | p. 70 |
| Beyond the "Democratic" Peace | p. 71 |
| Democracy and Political Integration | p. 74 |
| Legitimacy, Liberalism, and Society | p. 76 |
| Democracy Reduces Conflict | p. 81 |
| The Epidemiology of War and Peace | p. 82 |
| What Causes or Constrains States' Use of Force? | p. 85 |
| A Database for Epidemiological Studies of Interstate Conflict | p. 91 |
| Militarized Disputes | p. 94 |
| Influences and Constraints: Democracy | p. 97 |
| Realist Constraints | p. 100 |
| Analyzing the Global Experience of a Century | p. 104 |
| Was the Effect of Democracy Different in Different Periods? | p. 111 |
| Peaceful Autocracies? | p. 114 |
| Are Political Transitions Dangerous? | p. 116 |
| More Democracy and More Peace | p. 122 |
| Both Democracy and Economic Interdependence Reduce Conflict | p. 125 |
| The Liberal Peace: Classical Perspectives and Recent Research | p. 127 |
| Analytical Problems | p. 133 |
| Testing the Effects of Trade | p. 138 |
| Trade Does Reduce Conflict | p. 145 |
| Are Open Economies More Pacific? | p. 148 |
| Economic Growth and Conflict | p. 151 |
| Economic Interdependence and Peace | p. 154 |
| International Organizations Also Reduce Conflict | p. 157 |
| Networks of Intergovernmental Organizations | p. 159 |
| Why and How IGOs Might Matter | p. 161 |
| Indirect Effects and Reverse Causality | p. 167 |
| The Analysis of Dense Networks | p. 169 |
| International Organizations Also Reduce Disputes | p. 171 |
| World War I as an Example | p. 174 |
| Systemic Changes over Time | p. 177 |
| Or Is It Hegemony That Reduces Violence? | p. 184 |
| Coercion or Persuasion? | p. 191 |
| The Three Kantian Legs | p. 193 |
| Virtuous Circles and Indirect Influences | p. 197 |
| Two Questions We Cannot Settle Here | p. 198 |
| United Nations Peace-Building through Democracy | p. 200 |
| The Effort in Mozambique | p. 206 |
| Do IGOs Promote Peace, or Vice Versa? | p. 212 |
| Who Trades with Whom? | p. 218 |
| Interests, Preferences, and Alliances | p. 228 |
| Clash of Civilizations, or Realism and Liberalism Deja Vu? | p. 239 |
| Civilizations and Identity | p. 242 |
| Exploring the Effects of Civilizational Differences | p. 246 |
| Designing a Simple Test | p. 250 |
| Civilizational, Realist, and Liberal Influences on Conflict | p. 253 |
| What Are the Patterns of Conflict within and between Particular Civilizations? | p. 255 |
| Do Regional Hegemonies Reduce the Likelihood of Conflict? | p. 260 |
| Does the Clash of Civilizations Grow over Time? | p. 262 |
| Are Civilizations the Prime Mover? | p. 264 |
| The Insignificance of Civilizational Differences | p. 267 |
| The Kantian Peace in the Twenty-First Century | p. 271 |
| The Evidence for a Kantian Peace | p. 273 |
| Incorporating Russia and China into the Kantian System | p. 282 |
| Russia's Options | p. 285 |
| How to Avoid the Dangers of a Russia-China Alliance | p. 286 |
| Why Not Bring Russia into NATO? | p. 288 |
| How Would the Chinese React? | p. 292 |
| The False Hope of Hegemony | p. 297 |
| Appendix: Methods and Tables | p. 307 |
| References | p. 331 |
| Index | p. 371 |
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