
Time Series Analysis
With Applications in R
By: Jonathan D. Cryer, Kung-Sik Chan
Hardcover | 4 April 2008 | Edition Number 2
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Time Series Analysis With Applications in R, Second Edition, presents an accessible approach to understanding time series models and their applications. Although the emphasis is on time domain ARIMA models and their analysis, the new edition devotes two chapters to the frequency domain and three to time series regression models, models for heteroscedasticity, and threshold models. All of the ideas and methods are illustrated with both real and simulated data sets.
A unique feature of this edition is its integration with the R computing environment. The tables and graphical displays are accompanied by the R commands used to produce them. An extensive R package, TSA, which contains many new or revised R functions and all of the data used in the book, accompanies the written text. Script files of R commands for each chapter are available for download. There is also an extensive appendix in the book that leads the reader through the use of R commands and the new R package to carry out the analyses.
Industry Reviews
From the reviews of the second edition.
"The book is ideal for undergradute and honours time series modules, . . . .written and structured in such a way that students are introduced to the various concepts and methodologies at a graduate level. . . . more advanced mathematical details are provided in appendices at the end of the chapters. . . .Cryer and new co-author, Kung-Sik Chan, have compiled a comprehensive resource on time series analysis, integrating traditional time series methodologies with newer techniques and procedures. . . . The first ten chapters deal with time-domain analysis of univariate time series. . . . Deterministic trend models. . . . Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. . . . The classic model building approach of Box and Jenkins. . . . including multiclative models. . . . The second part of the book consists of new chapters on more advanced topics. Time series regression models. . . . Models of heteroscedasticity. . . . Frequency-domain analysis. . . . The book concludes with nonlinear time series. . . . The fact that R and the TSA package are freely available . . . contibutes to the accessibility of the book. . . . I would highly recommend this book." (Paul J. van Staden, South African Statistical Association)
"Intended to serve as an introductory course text in time series analysis, this edition is appropriate for a target audience of upper-division undergraduates and beginning graduate students. ...The second edition has undergone substantial revision; the most notable changes are the inclusion of new material and the switch from Minitab to the R programming language (R Development Core Team 2008). In fact, the text makes extensive use of the contributed R package TSA, maintained by one of the authors (KSC), providing sample code throughout. It also boasts an appendix containing an introduction to R along with several of the commands use in each chapter. Since many practical problems in time series analysis are solvedusing statistical software, the change to R will likely be appreciated by students. ...This text is well written and provides thorough coverage of univariate ARIMA modeling. In fact, I will strongly consider adopting this text for my next introductory time series class at the advanced undergraduate/beginning graduate level." ( Journal of the American Statistical Association, Dec. 2009, Vol. 104, No. 488)
"Based on the book on Time Series Analysis by Jonathan Cryer, published in 1968, the new edition, co-authored with K.-S. Chan, contains nearly all of the well-received original in addition to considerable up-to-date new material, numerous new datasets, and new exercises. Hence the book emphasizes the time domain approach and particularly the Box-Jenkins approach. In addition, some of the new topics that are integrated with the original include unit root tests, extended autocorrelation functions, subset ARIMA models, and bootstrapping. Furthermore, the new edition covers completelynew chapters on time series regression models, time series models of heteroscedasticity, spectral analysis, and threshold models. Although the level of difficulty in these new chapters is somewhat higher than in the more basic material, the discussion is presented in a way that will make the material accessible and quite useful to a broad audience of users. ... The book is suitable for a one-semester course attended by students in statistics, economics, business, engineering, and quantitative social sciences. Basic applied statistics through multiple linear regression is assumed. Calculus is assumed only to the extent of minimizing sums of squares, but a calculus-based introduction to statistics is necessary for a thorough understanding of some of the theory. The required facts concerning expectation, variance, covariance, correlation, and properties of conditional expectation and minimum mean square error prediction are presented in appendices. ... In conclusion, this book is easy to access. It makes the difficult contexts very concrete. Wonderful work and strongly recommended for a graduate course or for self-study." (Technometrics. August 1, 2010, 52(3), p. 365)
"This second edition...includes new material on time series regression models, spectral analysis, threshold models, and models of heteroscedasticity; the latter of which are heavily used in econometrics and have traditionally been left out of books on time series. The new chapters on heteroscedasticity and threshold models, in my opinion, are what set this book apart from others. ... Overall, the book is well laid out and well written. The TSA package easily loaded on my Mac and the software and example code ran without any problems. ...I have no reservations recommending it as the text for an applied course, which is the intended use of the book." ( Biometrics 65, March 2009)
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| Examples of Time Series | p. 1 |
| A Model-Building Strategy | p. 8 |
| Time Series Plots in History | p. 8 |
| An Overview of the Book | p. 9 |
| Exercises | p. 10 |
| Fundamental Concepts | p. 11 |
| Time Series and Stochastic Processes | p. 11 |
| Means, Variances, and Covariances | p. 11 |
| Stationarity | p. 16 |
| Summary | p. 19 |
| Exercises | p. 19 |
| Expectation, Variance, Covariance, and Correlation | p. 24 |
| Trends | p. 27 |
| Deterministic Versus Stochastic Trends | p. 27 |
| Estimation of a Constant Mean | p. 28 |
| Regression Methods | p. 30 |
| Reliability and Efficiency of Regression Estimates | p. 36 |
| Interpreting Regression Output | p. 40 |
| Residual Analysis | p. 42 |
| Summary | p. 50 |
| Exercises | p. 50 |
| Models for Stationary Time Series | p. 55 |
| General Linear Processes | p. 55 |
| Moving Average Processes | p. 57 |
| Autoregressive Processes | p. 66 |
| The Mixed Autoregressive Moving Average Model | p. 77 |
| Invertibility | p. 79 |
| Summary | p. 80 |
| Exercises | p. 81 |
| The Stationarity Region for an AR(2) Process | p. 84 |
| The Autocorrelation Function for ARMA(p,q) | p. 85 |
| Models for Nonstationary Time Series | p. 87 |
| Stationarity Through Differencing | p. 88 |
| ARIMA Models | p. 92 |
| Constant Terms in ARIMA Models | p. 97 |
| Other Transformations | p. 98 |
| Summary | p. 102 |
| Exercises | p. 103 |
| The Backshift Operator | p. 106 |
| Model Specification | p. 109 |
| Properties of the Sample Autocorrelation Function | p. 109 |
| The Partial and Extended Autocorrelation Functions | p. 112 |
| Specification of Some Simulated Time Series | p. 117 |
| Nonstationarity | p. 125 |
| Other Specification Methods | p. 130 |
| Specification of Some Actual Time Series | p. 133 |
| Summary | p. 141 |
| Exercises | p. 141 |
| Parameter Estimation | p. 149 |
| The Method of Moments | p. 149 |
| Least Squares Estimation | p. 154 |
| Maximum Likelihood and Unconditional Least Squares | p. 158 |
| Properties of the Estimates | p. 160 |
| Illustrations of Parameter Estimation | p. 163 |
| Bootstrapping ARIMA Models | p. 167 |
| Summary | p. 170 |
| Exercises | p. 170 |
| Model Diagnostics | p. 175 |
| Residual Analysis | p. 175 |
| Overfitting and Parameter Redundancy | p. 185 |
| Summary | p. 188 |
| Exercises | p. 188 |
| Forecasting | p. 191 |
| Minimum Mean Square Error Forecasting | p. 191 |
| Deterministic Trends | p. 191 |
| ARIMA Forecasting | p. 193 |
| Prediction Limits | p. 203 |
| Forecasting Illustrations | p. 204 |
| Updating ARIMA Forecasts | p. 207 |
| Forecast Weights and Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages | p. 207 |
| Forecasting Transformed Series | p. 209 |
| Summary of Forecasting with Certain ARIMA Models | p. 211 |
| Summary | p. 213 |
| Exercises | p. 213 |
| Conditional Expectation | p. 218 |
| Minimum Mean Square Error Prediction | p. 218 |
| The Truncated Linear Process | p. 221 |
| State Space Models | p. 222 |
| Seasonal Models | p. 227 |
| Seasonal ARIMA Models | p. 228 |
| Multiplicative Seasonal ARMA Models | p. 230 |
| Nonstationary Seasonal ARIMA Models | p. 233 |
| Model Specification, Fitting, and Checking | p. 234 |
| Forecasting Seasonal Models | p. 241 |
| Summary | p. 246 |
| Exercises | p. 246 |
| Time Series Regression Models | p. 249 |
| Intervention Analysis | p. 249 |
| Outliers | p. 257 |
| Spurious Correlation | p. 260 |
| Prewhitening and Stochastic Regression | p. 265 |
| Summary | p. 273 |
| Exercises | p. 274 |
| Time Series Models of Heteroscedasticity | p. 277 |
| Some Common Features of Financial Time Series | p. 278 |
| The ARCH(1) Model | p. 285 |
| GARCH Models | p. 289 |
| Maximum Likelihood Estimation | p. 298 |
| Model Diagnostics | p. 301 |
| Conditions for the Nonnegativity of the Conditional Variances | p. 307 |
| Some Extensions of the GARCH Model | p. 310 |
| Another Example: The Daily USD/HKD Exchange Rates | p. 311 |
| Summary | p. 315 |
| Exercises | p. 316 |
| Formulas for the Generalized Portmanteau Tests | p. 318 |
| Introduction to Spectral Analysis | p. 319 |
| Introduction | p. 319 |
| The Periodogram | p. 322 |
| The Spectral Representation and Spectral Distribution | p. 327 |
| The Spectral Density | p. 330 |
| Spectral Densities for ARMA Processes | p. 332 |
| Sampling Properties of the Sample Spectral Density | p. 340 |
| Summary | p. 346 |
| Exercises | p. 346 |
| Orthogonality of Cosine and Sine Sequences | p. 349 |
| Estimating the Spectrum | p. 351 |
| Smoothing the Spectral Density | p. 351 |
| Bias and Variance | p. 354 |
| Bandwidth | p. 355 |
| Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum | p. 356 |
| Leakage and Tapering | p. 358 |
| Autoregressive Spectrum Estimation | p. 363 |
| Examples with Simulated Data | p. 364 |
| Examples with Actual Data | p. 370 |
| Other Methods of Spectral Estimation | p. 376 |
| Summary | p. 378 |
| Exercises | p. 378 |
| Tapering and the Dirichlet Kernel | p. 381 |
| Threshold Models | p. 383 |
| Graphically Exploring Nonlinearity | p. 384 |
| Tests for Nonlinearity | p. 390 |
| Polynomial Models Are Generally Explosive | p. 393 |
| First-Order Threshold Autoregressive Models | p. 395 |
| Threshold Models | p. 399 |
| Testing for Threshold Nonlinearity | p. 400 |
| Estimation of a TAR Model | p. 402 |
| Model Diagnostics | p. 411 |
| Prediction | p. 415 |
| Summary | p. 420 |
| Exercises | p. 420 |
| The Generalized Portmanteau Test for TAR | p. 421 |
| An Introduction to R | p. 423 |
| Introduction | p. 423 |
| Chapter 1 R Commands | p. 429 |
| Chapter 2 R Commands | p. 433 |
| Chapter 3 R Commands | p. 433 |
| Chapter 4 R Commands | p. 438 |
| Chapter 5 R Commands | p. 439 |
| Chapter 6 R Commands | p. 441 |
| Chapter 7 R Commands | p. 442 |
| Chapter 8 R Commands | p. 446 |
| Chapter 9 R Commands | p. 447 |
| Chapter 10 R Commands | p. 450 |
| Chapter 11 R Commands | p. 451 |
| Chapter 12 R Commands | p. 457 |
| Chapter 13 R Commands | p. 460 |
| Chapter 14 R Commands | p. 461 |
| Chapter 15 R Commands | p. 462 |
| New or Enhanced Functions in the TSA Library | p. 468 |
| Dataset Information | p. 471 |
| Bibliography | p. 477 |
| Index | p. 487 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
ISBN: 9780387759586
ISBN-10: 0387759581
Series: Springer Texts in Statistics
Published: 4th April 2008
Format: Hardcover
Language: English
Number of Pages: 508
Audience: College, Tertiary and University
Publisher: Springer Nature B.V.
Country of Publication: US
Edition Number: 2
Edition Type: Revised
Dimensions (cm): 25.4 x 17.78 x 2.87
Weight (kg): 1.09
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