| Introduction | p. 1 |
| How to be a Bayesian | p. 1 |
| The Variational Bayes (VB) Method | p. 2 |
| A First Example of the VB Method: Scalar Additive Decomposition | p. 3 |
| A First Choice of Prior | p. 3 |
| The Prior Choice Revisited | p. 4 |
| The VB Method in its Context | p. 6 |
| VB as a Distributional Approximation | p. 8 |
| Layout of the Work | p. 10 |
| Acknowledgement | p. 11 |
| Bayesian Theory | p. 13 |
| Bayesian Benefits | p. 13 |
| Off-line vs. On-line Parametric Inference | p. 14 |
| Bayesian Parametric Inference: the Off-Line Case | p. 15 |
| The Subjective Philosophy | p. 16 |
| Posterior Inferences and Decisions | p. 16 |
| Prior Elicitation | p. 18 |
| Conjugate priors | p. 19 |
| Bayesian Parametric Inference: the On-line Case | p. 19 |
| Time-invariant Parameterization | p. 20 |
| Time-variant Parameterization | p. 20 |
| Prediction | p. 22 |
| Summary | p. 22 |
| Off-line Distributional Approximations and the Variational Bayes Method | p. 25 |
| Distributional Approximation | p. 25 |
| How to Choose a Distributional Approximation | p. 26 |
| Distributional Approximation as an Optimization Problem | p. 26 |
| The Bayesian Approach to Distributional Approximation | p. 27 |
| The Variational Bayes (VB) Method of Distributional Approximation | p. 28 |
| The VB Theorem | p. 28 |
| The VB Method of Approximation as an Operator | p. 32 |
| The VB Method | p. 33 |
| The VB Method for Scalar Additive Decomposition | p. 37 |
| VB-related Distributional Approximations | p. 39 |
| Optimization with Minimum-Risk KL Divergence | p. 39 |
| Fixed-form (FF) Approximation | p. 40 |
| Restricted VB (RVB) Approximation | p. 40 |
| Adaptation of the VB method for the RVB Approximation | p. 41 |
| The Quasi-Bayes (QB) Approximation | p. 42 |
| The Expectation-Maximization (EM) Algorithm | p. 44 |
| Other Deterministic Distributional Approximations | p. 45 |
| The Certainty Equivalence Approximation | p. 45 |
| The Laplace Approximation | p. 45 |
| The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Approximation | p. 45 |
| Stochastic Distributional Approximations | p. 46 |
| Distributional Estimation | p. 47 |
| Example: Scalar Multiplicative Decomposition | p. 48 |
| Classical Modelling | p. 48 |
| The Bayesian Formulation | p. 48 |
| Full Bayesian Solution | p. 49 |
| The Variational Bayes (VB) Approximation | p. 51 |
| Comparison with Other Techniques | p. 54 |
| Conclusion | p. 56 |
| Principal Component Analysis and Matrix Decompositions | p. 57 |
| Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA) | p. 58 |
| Maximum Likelihood (ML) Estimation for the PPCA Model | p. 59 |
| Marginal Likelihood Inference of A | p. 61 |
| Exact Bayesian Analysis | p. 61 |
| The Laplace Approximation | p. 62 |
| The Variational Bayes (VB) Method for the PPCA Model | p. 62 |
| Orthogonal Variational PCA (OVPCA) | p. 69 |
| The Orthogonal PPCA Model | p. 70 |
| The VB Method for the Orthogonal PPCA Model | p. 70 |
| Inference of Rank | p. 77 |
| Moments of the Model Parameters | p. 78 |
| Simulation Studies | p. 79 |
| Convergence to Orthogonal Solutions: VPCA vs. FVPCA | p. 79 |
| Local Minima in FVPCA and OVPCA | p. 82 |
| Comparison of Methods for Inference of Rank | p. 83 |
| Application: Inference of Rank in a Medical Image Sequence | p. 85 |
| Conclusion | p. 87 |
| Functional Analysis of Medical Image Sequences | p. 89 |
| A Physical Model for Medical Image Sequences | p. 90 |
| Classical Inference of the Physiological Model | p. 92 |
| The FAMIS Observation Model | p. 92 |
| Bayesian Inference of FAMIS and Related Models | p. 94 |
| The VB Method for the FAMIS Model | p. 94 |
| The VB Method for FAMIS: Alternative Priors | p. 99 |
| Analysis of Clinical Data Using the FAMIS Model | p. 102 |
| Conclusion | p. 107 |
| On-line Inference of Time-Invariant Parameters | p. 109 |
| Recursive Inference | p. 110 |
| Bayesian Recursive Inference | p. 110 |
| The Dynamic Exponential Family (DEF) | p. 112 |
| Example: The AutoRegressive (AR) Model | p. 114 |
| Recursive Inference of non-DEF models | p. 117 |
| The VB Approximation in On-Line Scenarios | p. 118 |
| Scenario I: VB-Marginalization for Conjugate Updates | p. 118 |
| Scenario II: The VB Method in One-Step Approximation | p. 121 |
| Scenario III: Achieving Conjugacy in non-DEF Models via the VB Approximation | p. 123 |
| The VB Method in the On-Line Scenarios | p. 126 |
| Related Distributional Approximations | p. 127 |
| The Quasi-Bayes (QB) Approximation in On-Line Scenarios | p. 128 |
| Global Approximation via the Geometric Approach | p. 128 |
| One-step Fixed-Form (FF) Approximation | p. 129 |
| On-line Inference of a Mixture of AutoRegressive (AR) Models | p. 130 |
| The VB Method for AR Mixtures | p. 130 |
| Related Distributional Approximations for AR Mixtures | p. 133 |
| The Quasi-Bayes (QB) Approximation | p. 133 |
| One-step Fixed-Form (FF) Approximation | p. 135 |
| Simulation Study: On-line Inference of a Static Mixture | p. 135 |
| Inference of a Many-Component Mixture | p. 136 |
| Inference of a Two-Component Mixture | p. 136 |
| Data-Intensive Applications of Dynamic Mixtures | p. 139 |
| Urban Vehicular Traffic Prediction | p. 141 |
| Conclusion | p. 143 |
| On-line Inference of Time-Variant Parameters | p. 145 |
| Exact Bayesian Filtering | p. 145 |
| The VB-Approximation in Bayesian Filtering | p. 147 |
| The VB method for Bayesian Filtering | p. 149 |
| Other Approximation Techniques for Bayesian Filtering | p. 150 |
| Restricted VB (RVB) Approximation | p. 150 |
| Particle Filtering | p. 152 |
| Stabilized Forgetting | p. 153 |
| The Choice of the Forgetting Factor | p. 154 |
| The VB-Approximation in Kalman Filtering | p. 155 |
| The VB method | p. 156 |
| Loss of Moment Information in the VB Approximation | p. 158 |
| VB-Filtering for the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) | p. 158 |
| Exact Bayesian filtering for known T | p. 159 |
| The VB Method for the HMM Model with Known T | p. 160 |
| The VB Method for the HMM Model with Unknown T | p. 162 |
| Other Approximate Inference Techniques | p. 164 |
| Particle Filtering | p. 164 |
| Certainty Equivalence Approach | p. 165 |
| Simulation Study: Inference of Soft Bits | p. 166 |
| The VB-Approximation for an Unknown Forgetting Factor | p. 168 |
| Inference of a Univariate AR Model with Time-Variant Parameters | p. 169 |
| Simulation Study: Non-stationary AR Model Inference via Unknown Forgetting | p. 173 |
| Inference of an AR Process with Switching Parameters | p. 173 |
| Initialization of Inference for a Stationary AR Process | p. 174 |
| Conclusion | p. 176 |
| The Mixture-based Extension of the AR Model (MEAR) | p. 179 |
| The Extended AR (EAR) Model | p. 179 |
| Bayesian Inference of the EAR Model | p. 181 |
| Computational Issues | p. 182 |
| The EAR Model with Unknown Transformation: the MEAR Model | p. 182 |
| The VB Method for the MEAR Model | p. 183 |
| Related Distributional Approximations for MEAR | p. 186 |
| The Quasi-Bayes (QB) Approximation | p. 186 |
| The Viterbi-Like (VL) Approximation | p. 187 |
| Computational Issues | p. 188 |
| The MEAR Model with Time-Variant Parameters | p. 191 |
| Application: Inference of an AR Model Robust to Outliers | p. 192 |
| Design of the Filter-bank | p. 192 |
| Simulation Study | p. 193 |
| Application: Inference of an AR Model Robust to Burst Noise | p. 196 |
| Design of the Filter-Bank | p. 196 |
| Simulation Study | p. 197 |
| Application in Speech Reconstruction | p. 201 |
| Conclusion | p. 201 |
| Concluding Remarks | p. 205 |
| The VB Method | p. 205 |
| Contributions of the Work | p. 206 |
| Current Issues | p. 206 |
| Future Prospects for the VB Method | p. 207 |
| Required Probability Distributions | p. 209 |
| Multivariate Normal distribution | p. 209 |
| Matrix Normal distribution | p. 209 |
| Normal-inverse-Wishart (NiW [subscript A, Omega]) Distribution | p. 210 |
| Truncated Normal Distribution | p. 211 |
| Gamma Distribution | p. 212 |
| Von Mises-Fisher Matrix distribution | p. 212 |
| Definition | p. 213 |
| First Moment | p. 213 |
| Second Moment and Uncertainty Bounds | p. 214 |
| Multinomial Distribution | p. 215 |
| Dirichlet Distribution | p. 215 |
| Truncated Exponential Distribution | p. 216 |
| References | p. 217 |
| Index | p. 225 |
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