Foreword ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xvi
Introduction to Financial Engines xviii
Chapter 1 Now it’s Personal 1
A Changing World 2
The Grand Social Experiment: 401(k) 6
The Knowledge Gap 7
The Traditional Advice Model 8
Institutional Tools of the Trade 10
Chapter 2 No Free Lunch 25
I’ll Take the one with the Highest Return. . . 26
A Little Bit of Latin: Ex-Ante and Ex-Post 28
How are the Prices of Risky Assets Set? 29
The Link Between Risk and Return 31
When High Risk does not Mean High Return 34
Hidden Risks and the Peso Problem 36
How Much Risk Am I Taking? 38
Risks and Returns of Different Assets 42
Does it Pass the Blush Test? 47
Chapter 3 History is Bunk 49
History and Expected Returns 51
The Past is not the Future 52
History is Sometimes not What it Seems 55
Investing with Perfect Hindsight 57
The Lucky and the Skillful 60
Chapter 4 The Wisdom of the Market 73
The Efficient Market? 74
What is the Market Portfolio? 78
What does the Market Portfolio Look Like? 79
There’s no Place Like Home 81
History of the Market Portfolio 83
Betting Against the Market 85
Avoiding Unintentional Bets 87
Risk and the Market Portfolio 89
The Market’s View of Future Returns 91
Market Portfolio Simulations 97
Final Thoughts 98
Chapter 5 Getting the Risk Right 101
How to Measure Risk 103
Asset Mix and Short-Term Loss 106
Risk and Portfolio Outcomes 109
Risk and Time Horizon 113
Factors to Consider in Selecting a Risk Level 120
Examples of Informed Investor Behavior 121
Chapter 6 An Unnecessary Gamble 125
A Different Sort of Beast 128
The Risk of Individual Stocks 130
The Implications of Individual Stock Risk 132
Expected Growth Rates 136
The Biggest Mistake in Retirement Investing 142
What About More Than One? 144
Do You Feel Lucky? 149
How to Invest in Stocks Safely 150
Hidden Costs 152
Dealing with Unwanted Stock Risk 154
Chapter 7 How Fees Eat Your Lunch 157
It’s Basic Arithmetic 158
Big Business 160
For Every Winner there Has to Be a Loser 161
It Still Adds Up to Dollars 164
A Wide, Wide World 167
How Fees Eat Your Lunch 168
It’s a Heavy Load to Bear 175
Fees and the Bigger Picture 176
Practical Considerations 179
Chapter 8 Smart Diversification 183
The Goals of Diversification 184
The Big Picture 185
Why Hierarchy is Bad for Portfolios 189
The Value of Asset Class Diversification 193
Diversification Ain’t What it Used to Be 197
Diversification and Investment Choices 198
The Big Picture: Part II 205
The Search for Better Diversification 211
Chapter 9 Picking the Good Ones 221
The Stuff that Matters 224
It’s About the Future 227
Risk Tolerance and Fund Choice 227
Investment Style 228
Fund Expenses 232
Predicting Mutual Fund Performance 233
Rating Funds 236
Putting the Pieces Together 257
What it Takes to Rank Among the Best 259
Chapter 10 Funding the Future 263
The Benefits of Being Flexible 264
Taxable and Tax-Deferred Savings 266
How Much do you Need? 269
From Wealth to Income 271
The Myth of Absolutes 275
Risk, Time, and Savings 281
What it Takes to Get there 291
Chapter 11 Investing and Uncle Sam 295
Why you don’t Want to Minimize Taxes 297
How Taxes Impact Investment Returns 298
The Impact of Personal Tax Rates 301
Tax Efficiency of Asset Classes 303
Asset Placement 306
Mutual Fund Tax Efficiency 308
Municipal Bonds 312
Capital Gains and Losses 316
Putting it All Together 319
Chapter 12 Wrapping it Up 321
Appendix The Personal Online Advisor 331
Notes 335
Glossary 347
About the Author 357
Index 359
