Systems Reliability and Risk Analysis

1.0 Introduction.- 1.1 Suggested Readings.- 2.0 Fundamental Concepts.- 2.1 Basic Concepts of Reliability.- 2.2 References.- 3.0 Assessment of Reliability Function.- 3.1 Non-parametric Reliability Function Assessment.- 3.2 Parametric Reliability Function Assessment.- 3.3 Exercises.- 3.4 References.- 4.0 Reliability of Series and Parallel Systems.- 4.1 Simple Series Systems.- 4.1.1 Application to Components with Exponential Failure Densities.- 4.2 Simple Parallel Systems.- 4.2.1 Relation Between MTBF and R(t) in Simple Exponential Redundant System.- 4.3 Variations of Simple Redundant Systems.- 4.4 Analysis of Complex Series Redundant System.- 4.5 Off-Line Redundant Systems.- 4.6 Exercises.- 4.7 References.- 5.0 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis - Fault Tree Analysis.- 5.1 Common Cause Failure.- 5.2 Complex System Reliability Networks.- 5.3 Fault Tree Analysis.- 5.3.1 Min Cut Sets of Fault Trees.- 5.4 Exercises.- 5.5 References.- Appendix 5A Performance of a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis.- Appendix 5B Performance of a Maintainability Engineering Analysis (MEA).- 6.0 Multivariable Probability Distributions and Stochastic Processes.- 6.1 Multivariable Probability Distributions.- 6.2 Stochastic Processes.- 6.3 Markov Processes.- 6.4 Exercises.- 6.5 References.- 7.0 The Generalized Failure Process for Non-Maintained Systems.- 7.1 Solution Using Laplace Transforms.- 7.2 Stand-by (Off Line) Redundant System.- 7.3 Series Systems.- 7.4 Redundant (On-Line) Parallel Systems.- 7.5 State-Dependent Reliability Models.- 7.6 Linear Stress Model.- 7.7 The Effect of Switching.- 7.8 Exercises.- 7.9 References.- 8.0 Analysis of Maintained Systems.- 8.1 Systems Availability.- 8.2 Markov Models for Maintained Systems.- 8.2 Maintained Series Systems.- 8.2 Maintained Parallel Systems.- 8.3 Development of the General Expression for the Mean Time to Failure of a Markov Chain.- 8.3.1 Mean Time to Failure and Variance of Time to Failure of Non-Maintained and Maintained Systems.- 8.4 Models of Maintained Systems with Redundant Off-Line Components.- 8.5 Exercises.- 8.6 References.- 9.0 Strategies for Repair Policies.- 9.0.1 General Repair Strategy Determination.- 9.0.2 Cost of Scheduled Overhauls and Inspections.- 9.0.3 Spare Pare Inventory Provisioning.- 9.1 Use of Dynamic Programming in Systems Reliability.- 9.1.1 Complex system Reliability Analysis Under Constraints.- 9.1.2 Optimization of Multistage Decision Processes.- 9.1.3 Complex System with Component Stand-by.- 9.1.4 Complex System with Switching.- 9.1.5 Reliability of Complex System with Component Maintenance.- 9.1.6 Analysis of Component Failure.- 9.1.7 Conclusions.- 9.2 The Use of the Lagrange Multiplier Method.- 9.2.1 System Involving Two Types of Constraints.- 9.3 Optimum Maintenance Policies by Dynamic Programming.- 9.4 Spare Part Provisioning Models.- 9.5 System Performance Evaluation.- 9.6 Exercises.- 9.7 References.- 10.0 Effects of Component Interaction.- 10.1 Effect of Interaction of Component Reliability.- 10.2 Analysis of "Wear" Rates.- 10.3 Component Reliability.- 10.4 System Reliability.- 10.5 Use of Networks in the analysis of Interactive Systems Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability.- 10.6 Exercises.- 10.7 References.- 11.0 Application of Fault Tree and Other Network Techniques.- 11.1 Implementation of Fault Tree Analysis.- 11.1.1 Representing Fault Trees by Networks.- 11.2 Uncertainty in Reliability Analysis.- 11.2.1 GERT Reliability Networks with Uncertainty.- 11.3 References.- 12.0 Reliability and Risk in Perspective.- 12.1 General Considerations.- 12.1 Risk Attitudes.- 12.2 Analysis of Risk.- 12.2.1 Reliability and Risk Assessment.- 12.3 Issues and Concerns.- Appendix A Basic Concepts of Probability and Statistics.- Appendix B Matrix Algebra and Transformations.- Appendix C Testing for Markov Properties.- Appendix D Non-Markovian Systems.- Appendix E Introduction to Flow Graphs and Gert.- Appendix F Statistical Tables.