| List of Tables | p. x |
| List of Figures | p. xi |
| Preamble: Complex Systems | p. xiv |
| Preface: Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) | p. xvi |
| Complexity and Economics | |
| Marshall's Tides | p. 3 |
| Introduction: Marshall's tidal metaphor | p. 3 |
| Haavalmo's probability revolution: "Let the data decide" | p. 6 |
| Keynes' skepticism: unobservable variables | p. 7 |
| Conclusions: the economy is a complex system | p. 10 |
| Complexity and Contingency | p. 13 |
| An introduction to complex adaptive systems | p. 14 |
| Some unique characteristics of complex adaptive systems: emergent properties, self-organized criticality, and sandpiles | p. 17 |
| The relational structure of complex adaptive systems | p. 20 |
| Science and complexity | p. 22 |
| Challenges to modeling complex adaptive systems | p. 25 |
| Are there limits to what we can know? | p. 28 |
| The human brain | p. 29 |
| Conclusions: an ode to pluralism | p. 33 |
| The Copenhagen interpretation | p. 36 |
| Bibliography on complexity and chaos | p. 39 |
| Chaos Theory: Unpredictable Order in Chaos | p. 43 |
| Chaos theory | p. 43 |
| Application of chaos theory | p. 49 |
| The innate instability of economic variables | p. 56 |
| Determinism and predictability | p. 59 |
| Five nontraditional truths | p. 65 |
| Postmodernism and economics | p. 68 |
| Prediction and domination | p. 72 |
| Econometrics, Data Mining, the Absence of a Stable Structure and the Pervasiveness of Contingency | p. 75 |
| The absence of a stable structure and pervasiveness of contingency | p. 75 |
| A brief survey of the econometric analysis of business cycles | p. 77 |
| The methodology of modern econometrics | p. 85 |
| The importance of stationarity | p. 94 |
| Are economic time series time stationary or difference stationary? | p. 96 |
| Conclusions: complex systems can be simulated but never solved | p. 102 |
| The Implications of Complexity for Economic Analysis | p. 104 |
| Tensions in neoclassical economics | p. 104 |
| "Misplaced concreteness" in neoclassical theory | p. 108 |
| The non-probabilistic nature of fundamental uncertainty | p. 112 |
| The case against equilibrium analysis | p. 119 |
| Process analysis | p. 122 |
| Some Thoughts on Economic Data and National Income Accounting | |
| Sorites' Paradox: the "Looseness" of Economic Concepts | p. 131 |
| The importance of quantification | p. 131 |
| Sorites' dilemma: "loose" concepts | p. 132 |
| Measurement in economics: "the excluded middle" | p. 134 |
| The measurement and quantification of economic concepts | p. 136 |
| The mismeasurement of National Income | p. 138 |
| Eisner's total incomes system of accounts | p. 144 |
| Unemployment, price levels, inflation rates, and growth rates | p. 150 |
| Conclusions: where must we draw the line? | p. 154 |
| Saving is the Accounting Record of Investment | p. 156 |
| Volitional and non-volitional saving | p. 156 |
| Saving is identical to investment | p. 159 |
| Widening the model: the government sector | p. 162 |
| Words and terms: "saving" in economics is intransitive | p. 164 |
| Volitional and non-volitional saving | p. 167 |
| Conclusions: saving is the accounting record of investment | p. 170 |
| Capital Gains: Towards a Hicksian Definition of Income | p. 174 |
| Most saving is non-volitional | p. 175 |
| Hicksian income | p. 177 |
| A Proposal for a "Capital Gains and Losses Addendum" to National Income Accouting | p. 183 |
| Estimates of Hicksian income | p. 188 |
| Conclusions: Hicksian income and saving behavior | p. 192 |
| The Endogeneity of Money and Exogeneity of Interest Rates | |
| The Endogeneity of Credit Money | p. 197 |
| Commodity, fiat, and credit money | p. 198 |
| The money-multiplier identity | p. 202 |
| The endogeneity of the high-powered base | p. 205 |
| Central Banks: the ultimate supplier of system liquidity | p. 208 |
| Conclusions: credit money and "convenience lending" | p. 212 |
| Commercial Bank Intermediation | p. 215 |
| Commercial banks as retailers of credit | p. 216 |
| Bank finance of working capital | p. 222 |
| A model of bank intermediation | p. 224 |
| The supply of credit money is endogenously demand-determined | p. 230 |
| Money market mutual funds | p. 235 |
| Conclusions: "horizontalism" | p. 236 |
| The Exogeneity of Interest Rates | p. 238 |
| Different theories of interest | p. 238 |
| Central Bank interest rate setting behavior | p. 241 |
| The US reserve supply process | p. 243 |
| The new consensus on monetary policy | p. 247 |
| Conclusions: bank rate is the exogenous policy instrument of the Central Bank | p. 252 |
| Keynes' changing views on interest rates | p. 255 |
| The Determination of Prices, Output, and Growth Rates | |
| Markup Pricing and the Aggregate Supply Relationship | p. 261 |
| The impossibility of maximization | p. 261 |
| Markup pricing: the Post Keynesian theory of the firm | p. 262 |
| The limitations of empirical analysis | p. 268 |
| Survey evidence | p. 270 |
| The Post Keynesian theory of pricing | p. 275 |
| Conclusions: as a "stylized fact" the aggregate supply (AS) curve may be viewed as horizontal | p. 278 |
| The "Raffishness" of Mainstream Macroeconomics: a Post Keynesian Critique | p. 281 |
| The five "core" propositions of mainstream macroeconomics | p. 281 |
| A critique of the mainstream "core" | p. 286 |
| A fundamental critique of the mainstream theory of income determination | p. 289 |
| Post Keynesian AS-AD analysis | p. 300 |
| Conclusions: the central importance of changes in "animal spirits" | p. 301 |
| Interest Rates and Aggregate Demand | p. 303 |
| The Post Keynesian case for aggregate demand management | p. 303 |
| IS-LM analysis and the BR-AD diagram | p. 307 |
| Process analysis: the BR-[Delta]AD diagram | p. 309 |
| Process analysis: the [Delta]BR-[Delta]AD diagram | p. 313 |
| The interest elasticity of aggregate demand | p. 316 |
| The Japanese conondrum | p. 320 |
| Conclusions: changes in Bank Rate are a good proxy for changes in "animal spirits" | p. 327 |
| Monetary Policy: Non-Volitional and Volitional Saving | p. 331 |
| The central role of monetary policy in AD growth | p. 331 |
| Internal balance constraints on reducing Bank Rate to R[subscript F] | p. 340 |
| External balance constraints on reducing Bank Rate to R[subscript F] | p. 345 |
| Insufficient "saving" is never a constraint on investment | p. 348 |
| The short run "exogeneity" and long run "endogeneity" of Bank Rate | p. 352 |
| The Monetary Transmission Process | p. 359 |
| Process analysis of how aggregate demand grows over time | p. 359 |
| "Convenience lending": the non-volitional finance of deficit-spending | p. 363 |
| "Convenience lending" and "convenience saving" | p. 366 |
| The demise of the Keynesian "multiplier" | p. 370 |
| The Quantity Theory of Money | p. 375 |
| The simultaneous achievement of internal and external balance | p. 377 |
| A critique of the Quantity Theory of Money | p. 378 |
| Open Economy Considerations | |
| Using National Currencies in International Trade: the Case for Fixed Exchange Rates | p. 385 |
| Open Economy Macroeconomics | p. 385 |
| Consistent capital budget accounting for open economies | p. 389 |
| The classical view of balance of payments adjustment | p. 396 |
| The Keynesian view of balance of payments adjustment | p. 398 |
| Keynes' proposal for an international clearing union (ICU) | p. 403 |
| Conclusions: the Bretton Woods system-success and failure | p. 405 |
| Using National Currencies in International Transactions: the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates | p. 409 |
| The current international payments system: flexible exchange rates | p. 410 |
| The case for flexible exchange rates | p. 411 |
| The case against flexible exchange rates | p. 413 |
| Endogenous speculation in flexible exchange rate regimes | p. 420 |
| The deflationary bias in the current flexible exchange rates regime | p. 424 |
| Empirical estimates of the deflationary bias | p. 428 |
| Using a Common Currency in International Transactions: the Post Keynesian Case for No Exchange Rates | p. 433 |
| The Choice of a national payments medium: a critically important policy decision | p. 434 |
| Efficiency gains from a common currency | p. 439 |
| Stabilization gains from a common currency | p. 441 |
| Post Keynesian open economy macroeconomics | p. 442 |
| Currency unions | p. 446 |
| Dollarization and Euroization | p. 449 |
| Financial Barriers to Demand-led Growth | p. 454 |
| Why market economies are demand-constrained? | p. 454 |
| Neoclassical supply-side models of economic growth | p. 456 |
| Post Keynesian demand-led models of economic growth | p. 460 |
| A demand-side explanation for the low growth rates of African economies | p. 463 |
| Conclusions | p. 472 |
| Notes | p. 474 |
| Bibliography | p. 522 |
| Index | p. 547 |
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