| Introduction | p. xi |
| The Evolution and Definition of Strategic Intelligence | p. 1 |
| Organized Warfare and the Need for Strategic Intelligence | p. 1 |
| Sun Tzu: First among Few Writers of a Very Old Profession | p. 2 |
| Systematic Strategic Intelligence Production Ignored: Some Hypotheses | p. 4 |
| Precursors to the "Modem Era" in Strategic Intelligence Production | p. 6 |
| U.S. Intelligence Organizations: Newcomers to an Old Club | p. 7 |
| Problematic Information and the Need for Intelligence | p. 9 |
| Purpose of Intelligence | p. 10 |
| Forms and Components of Strategic Intelligence | p. 11 |
| Summary | p. 14 |
| Research: A Description of the Activity and the Analyst | p. 17 |
| Original Meaning and Modern Permutations | p. 17 |
| Research as a Purposeful Activity | p. 19 |
| Research as a Systematic Activity | p. 20 |
| Research as an Activity That Contributes New Knowledge | p. 21 |
| Intelligence Research/Academic Research: Similarities and Differences | p. 21 |
| Time Constraints | p. 22 |
| Control of Variables | p. 23 |
| Adequacy of Data versus the Necessity of Reporting | p. 23 |
| Unknown Quality of Data | p. 24 |
| Emphasis on Prediction | p. 24 |
| Emphasis on Security | p. 25 |
| Utility | p. 26 |
| Characteristics of the Intelligence Researcher | p. 27 |
| Reasoning Ability | p. 28 |
| Accuracy | p. 29 |
| Intellectual Honesty | p. 30 |
| Open-Mindedness | p. 30 |
| Skepticism | p. 31 |
| Detachment | p. 32 |
| Patience, Diligence, and Perseverance | p. 32 |
| Imagination | p. 33 |
| Summary | p. 35 |
| Types of Inquiry and the Nature of Proof | p. 38 |
| Descriptive Research | p. 39 |
| Nature of Proof in Descriptive Research | p. 40 |
| Nature of Proof in Predictive Research | p. 41 |
| Theory Validation in a Conflict Situation | p. 42 |
| Models and the Scientific Method | p. 43 |
| The Scientific Method in Nonscientific Research | p. 45 |
| Predictive Model Validation in Intelligence Research | p. 46 |
| Semantic Problems of Technical Terms | p. 48 |
| Summary | p. 48 |
| The Relation of Induction and Deduction to Theory Building in Intelligence Research | p. 51 |
| Defining Induction | p. 52 |
| Defining Deduction | p. 54 |
| Induction and Deduction in the Hypothetico-Deductive Process | p. 55 |
| Summary | p. 56 |
| Planning the Research Program: Problem Definition | p. 58 |
| Defining the Problem: Sources and Origins of Research Projects | p. 59 |
| Is There a Need? | p. 60 |
| Defining Boundaries: A Scope | p. 60 |
| Terms of Reference | p. 61 |
| Operational Definitions | p. 62 |
| Broad Topics or Limited Topics: Determining the Feasibility of the Approach | p. 63 |
| Testing the Limits of Time | p. 63 |
| Capabilities and Interests of the Researcher | p. 64 |
| Feasibility: The All-Inclusive Issue | p. 65 |
| Problem Definition: The First but Not Final Phase of the Planning Activity | p. 66 |
| Summary | p. 67 |
| Planning the Research Program: Locating Information | p. 69 |
| Primary and Secondary Sources | p. 69 |
| Intenational and Unintentional Transmitters of Facts | p. 70 |
| Data Sources and Potential for Bias | p. 71 |
| Sources of Research Data: People, Objects, Emanations, and Records | p. 73 |
| People | p. 73 |
| Objects | p. 74 |
| Emanations | p. 75 |
| Records | p. 76 |
| Summary | p. 77 |
| Foundations of Analysis: Some Basic Concepts | p. 79 |
| Analysis | p. 80 |
| Induction and Deduction: A Short Review | p. 80 |
| Seven General Rules for Verification | p. 81 |
| Causality and Correlation | p. 83 |
| Canons of Causality | p. 84 |
| "Quantitative" and "Qualitative" Analysis: A Nebulous Distinction | p. 88 |
| Summary | p. 90 |
| Classification: A Basic Step in Analysis | p. 93 |
| Classification in Science and Intelligence | p. 93 |
| Why Classify? | p. 95 |
| Coding: A Basic Type of Classification | p. 97 |
| Two Meanings of Classify | p. 99 |
| The Steps in Classification | p. 100 |
| Testing the Classification System | p. 102 |
| Classifications as Abstracts of Reality with Parts Deleted | p. 103 |
| Summary | p. 103 |
| Basic Quantitative Techniques for Research and Analysis | p. 105 |
| Statistical Analysis | p. 106 |
| Mathematical Analysis | p. 107 |
| Descriptive Statistics | p. 108 |
| Frequency Distributions | p. 108 |
| Measures of Central Tendency | p. 110 |
| Measures of Dispersion | p. 111 |
| An Example of the Use of Descriptive Statistics | p. 115 |
| Sampling Theory | p. 117 |
| Random Sampling | p. 117 |
| Stratified Sampling | p. 120 |
| Introduction to Probability | p. 122 |
| Probability Distributions | p. 123 |
| Normal Distribution | p. 124 |
| Binomial Distribution | p. 125 |
| Exponential Distribution | p. 126 |
| Summary | p. 127 |
| Descriptive Analysis Methodologies | p. 129 |
| Analogy: The Perennial Analytic Model | p. 130 |
| Link Analysis | p. 132 |
| Sociometry | p. 134 |
| Game Theory | p. 136 |
| War Gaming | p. 140 |
| Linear Programming | p. 143 |
| Regression and Correlation | p. 147 |
| Graphic Depictions as Aids to Analysis | p. 153 |
| Utility Curves | p. 153 |
| Bar Graphs for Comparison | p. 155 |
| Terrain Profiling | p. 158 |
| Trend Analysis | p. 160 |
| Summary | p. 162 |
| Prediction, Forecasting, and Haruspicy | p. 164 |
| Types of Phenomena and Their Relationship to Forecasting | p. 164 |
| Probabilistic Statements and Their Relationship to Types of Phenomena | p. 165 |
| Assumptions-Pragmatic and Problematic | p. 166 |
| Delphi Techniques | p. 168 |
| Generation of Alternative Futures | p. 170 |
| Extrapolation | p. 171 |
| Bayesian Analysis | p. 176 |
| Probability Diagrams | p. 180 |
| Psychohistorical and Psycholinguistic Analysis | p. 183 |
| Morphological Analysis | p. 185 |
| Models and Model Building | p. 188 |
| Cybernetic Models and System Dynamics as Aids in Forecasting | p. 190 |
| Summary | p. 193 |
| Preparing the Report | p. 197 |
| Format | p. 197 |
| Use Outlines Appropriately | p. 199 |
| Schedule Work Sessions | p. 200 |
| Avoid Interruptions | p. 200 |
| Use the Active Rather Than Passive Voice | p. 201 |
| Use Simple Sentences | p. 201 |
| Write at a Level Appropriate for the Readers | p. 202 |
| Footnotes and Bibliographies | p. 202 |
| Review and Revision | p. 203 |
| Summary | p. 205 |
| An Example of a Small-Scale Intelligence Study | p. 207 |
| Background and Origin of the Problem | p. 207 |
| Planning the Research Program: Problem Definition | p. 208 |
| Hypothesis Formulation | p. 210 |
| Data Collection | p. 211 |
| Analysis and Findings | p. 211 |
| Validation | p. 215 |
| Index | p. 217 |
| About the Author and Editor | p. 219 |
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