Risk Management and Construction

List of figures; List of tables; Forward; Introduction; The aim of the book; Part 1 - Putting risk into perspective:; Introduction; Risk and reward go hand in hand; Risk and contruction; Risk - another four letter word; AGAP (All goes according to plan) and WHIF (What happens if); The people, the process and the risks; Clients of the industry; Have clients' needs changed? Privately financed infrastructure projects; What do clients want?; Investment in property; Consultatns and risk; Contracting and risk; Part II The background to risk and uncertainty:; Introduction; Defining risk and uncertainty; The uncertainty of life and construction projects; Dynamic and static risk; A threat and a challenge; Some fo ther basic rules for risk taking; Risk 'Place your waterline low'; The risky shift phenomenon - what happens when groups make decisions; The risk of not risking; Risk styles; Removing ignorance - and risk; Probability; Converting uncertainty to risk; Decision-making in the construction industry; Intuition; Bias and intuition; Experts and experience; Rules of thumb; Making a model; Reacting to information; Looking at the past to forecast the future; Types of information; Building a decision model to solve a problem; Part III The risk management system: Introduction; Developing a risk management framework; Risk identification; Sources of risk; Dependent and independent risk; Risk classification; Types of risk; Impact of risk; The risk hierarchy; Risk and the general environment; The market/industry risk; The company risk; Project risk and individual risk; Consequence of risk; Risk reponse; Risk retention; Risk reduction; Risk transfer; Risk avoidance; Risk attitude; Summarising risk management; Risk management; Part IV Some of the tools and techniques of risk management: Introduction; Seeing the big picutre and tthe detail; Decision-making techniques; The risk premium; Risk-adjusted discount rate; Subjective probabilities; Decision analysis; Algorithms; Means-end chain; Decision matrix; Strategy; Decision trees; Bayesian theory; Stochastic decision tree analysis; Multi-attribute value theory; Specify the utility function; Case study; Summary; Sensitivity analysis; Spiider Diagram; Monte Carlo simulation; Portofolio theory; The aplication of portfolio analysis in the construction industry; Stochastic dominance; Cumulative distributions of illustrative portfolios; Conclusion; Part V Utility and risk attitude: Introduction; Risk exposure; Utility theory; Expected monetary value; Payoff matrix; The utility function; General types of characteristics of utility functions; The difference between EUV and EMV in practice; The use of utility theory in construction; Basic principle for the aplication of the theory; Part VI Risks and the construction project - money, time and technical risks: Introduction; Money and delivery sequence; Investment and development sequence; Cost considerations; Operational/revenue considerations; The influence of taxation; Value considerations; Design and construction sequence; Time delivery sequence; Contractors and specialist contractors; Technical delivery sequence; A case study of the technical risks faced by the building surveyor; Part VII Sensitivity analysis, breakeven analysis, and scenario analysis: Sensitivity analysis; Breakeven analysis; Scenario analysis; Sensitivity analysis - an application to life cycle costing; Part VIII Risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation: Probability analysis - extending the sesitivity technique; How it works; Using Monte Carlo simulation in the cost planning of a building; Estimating and price prediction an overview of current practice; Cost planning and risk analysis; Interdependence of items; Risk analysis using probabilities; Risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation; Considering some probability distributions; Comon distriubtion types; Uniform distribution; Triangular distribution; Normal distribution; A step by step approach to Monte Carlo simulation; Using Monte Carlo simulation on a live project; The result; Questions and Answers; Part IX Constracts and risk: Disagreement and conflict; The purpose of the contract; The fundamental risks - liability and responsibility; Transferring and allocating the risk in the contracts; The principles of control - the theory; The contractual links; Risk avoidance by warrannties and collateral warranties; The types of contract; Contracts and risk tactics; Part X A case study of an oil platform: A practical application of resourced schedule risk analysis; Background; The model; Comparison with deterministic plan; Data; Weather; Project variables; Processing of data; Confidence in the data; Initial results; Conclusion; References and bibliography; Index