Foreword xiii
PART 1. GENERAL CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES 1
Chapter 1. Introduction 3
1.1. What is risk management? 3
1.2. Nature of risks 4
1.3. Evolution of risk management 6
1.4. Aims of this book 12
Chapter 2. Basic Notions 13
2.1. Formalization of the notion of risk 13
2.2. Hazard and sources of hazard 16
2.3. Stakes and targets 17
2.4. Vulnerability and resilience 18
2.5. Undesirable events and scenarios 18
2.6. Accidents and incidents 20
2.7. Safety 20
2.8. Likelihood, probability and frequency 21
2.9. Severity and intensity 22
2.10. Criticality 23
2.11. Reducing risk: prevention, protection and barriers 23
2.12. Risk analysis and risk management 25
2.13. Inductive and deductive approaches 26
2.14. Known risks and emerging risks 27
2.15. Individual and societal risks 27
2.16. Acceptable risk 28
2.17. The ALARP and ALARA principles 29
2.18. Risk maps 31
Chapter 3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods 33
3.1. Introduction 33
3.2. Categories of targets and damages 35
3.3. Classification of sources and undesirable events 36
3.4. Causes of technical origin 40
3.5. Causes linked to the natural or manmade environment 46
3.6. Human and organizational factors 46
Chapter 4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000) 53
4.1. Presentation 53
4.2. ISO31000 standard 55
4.3. Implementation: the risk management process 61
PART 2. KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION 71
Chapter 5. Modeling Risk 73
5.1. Introduction 73
5.2. Degradation flow models 74
5.3. Causal modeling 77
5.4. Modeling dynamic aspects 87
5.5. Summary 90
Chapter 6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk 93
6.1. Introduction 93
6.2. Assessing likelihood 96
6.3. Assessment of severity 102
6.4. Risk assessment 109
6.5. Application to the case of occupational risks 113
6.6. Application to the case of industrial risks 118
Chapter 7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis 123
7.1. Introduction 123
7.2. Systemic or process modeling 126
7.3. Functional modeling 128
7.4. Structural modeling 131
7.5. Structuro-functional modeling 134
7.6. Modeling the behavior of a system 137
7.7. Modeling human tasks 140
7.8. Choosing an approach 145
7.9. Relationship between the system model and the risk model 146
PART 3. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS 151
Chapter 8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis 153
8.1. Introduction 153
8.2. Implementation of the method 155
8.3. Model-driven PHA 165
8.4. Variations of PHA 166
8.5. Examples of application 169
8.6. Summary 175
Chapter 9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 179
9.1. Introduction 179
9.2. Key concepts 181
9.3. Implementation of the method 187
9.4. Model-based analysis 195
9.5. Limitations of the FMEA 197
9.6. Examples 198
Chapter 10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method 201
10.1. Introduction 201
10.2. Implementation of the HAZOP method 201
10.3. Limits and connections with other methods 208
10.4. Model-based analysis 209
10.5. Application example 210
Chapter 11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method 211
11.1. Introduction 211
11.2. Implementation of part A 214
11.3. Implementing part B. 224
11.4. Conclusion 228
Chapter 12. Fault Tree Analysis 229
12.1. Introduction 229
12.2. Method description 230
12.3. Useful notions 231
12.4. Implementation of the method 234
12.5. Qualitative and quantitative analysis 237
12.6. Connection with the reliability diagram 242
12.7. Model-based approach 243
12.8. Examples 244
12.9. Common cause failure analysis 247
Chapter 13. Event Tree and Bow-Tie Diagram Analysis 253
13.1. Event tree 253
13.2. Bow-tie diagram 259
Chapter 14. Human Reliability Analysis 263
14.1. Introduction 263
14.2. The stages of a probabilistic analysis of human reliability 267
14.3. Human error classification 269
14.4. Analysis and quantification of human errors 274
14.5. The SHERPA method 278
14.6. The HEART method 280
14.7. The THERP method 282
14.8. The CREAM method 288
14.9. Assessing these methods 291
Chapter 15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis 293
15.1. Choice of barriers 293
15.2. Barrier classification 295
15.3. Barrier analysis based on energy flows 297
15.4. Barrier assessment 299
15.5. Safety instrumented systems 301
15.6. The LOPA method 307
PART 4. APPENDICES 319
Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists 321
Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis 327
Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability 329
Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory 335
Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability 341
Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling 347
Appendix 7. Case Study: Chemical Process 355
Appendix 8. XRisk Software 361
Bibliography 363
Index 369
