Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgements xxiii
About the Authors xxv
1 Even Shit Floats in High Tide 1
Introduction 1
The Macros Matter 3
Capitalism: The Pyramid Scheme 4
Tier 0 5
Tier 1 5
Tier 2 5
Tier 3 5
Tier 4 7
Tier 5 8
Role of the Central Banks and Regulators 8
Virtuous Cycles 10
The Wealth Effect 14
An Interplay of Incentives 14
Investor Dilemma 17
Conclusion 20
2 Hindsight’s 2020 23
Introduction 23
Structural versus Event-Driven Crises 24
Structural 25
Event-Driven 25
The Crisis Timeline 26
Black Monday 1987 27
Dot-Com Bubble 1999–2000 29
The Great Recession of 2008 31
The Year of Crises – 2020 35
If It Smells Like Funk 38
Greed Is Good, or Is It? 38
Consistent Overvaluation 39
Failed Funding Rounds 39
Down Rounds 40
Funding Gaps 40
Data Collection 42
Ecosystem Pulse 43
Team 44
Product 45
Competition 47
Funding 48
Conclusion 49
3 Be Your Own Shrink 53
Introduction 53
Crisis Is Here 54
Put on Your Seat Belt First 54
The Emotional Gym 56
Organisational Emotional Fitness 60
You and Your Business: A 3D Model 61
Passion 62
Skills 63
Demand 64
Step Away 64
Switch Off or Snooze 65
Mentoring 67
Executive Coaching 68
Connect and Inspire 68
Conclusion 70
4 The Surgical Strike 73
Introduction 73
The Startup Bell Curve 75
A 3D Plan of Action 77
Survive: First-Order Optimisation 77
Normalise: Second-Order Optimisation 77
Thrive: Third-Order Optimisation 78
First-Order Optimisation 79
CashFlow Is Oxygen 80
Soul Searching 81
What’s the Heart of Your Business? 82
Where Are You Relevant? 84
Is Your Cost Structure Optimal? 85
Scenario Planning 87
The Soul versus Value Quadrant 88
Cold Decisions, Humane Execution 91
Communication Architecture 92
Clients: Increase Incoming 95
Suppliers and Vendors: Decrease Outgoing 97
The Firm: Align Culture 98
Team: Handle with Care 99
What Next? 103
Conclusion 104
5 Check Your Mirrors 107
Introduction 107
Second-Order Optimisation 108
The Who 110
The Why 112
The How Much 115
The How 118
Ask Them 118
Get Them 119
Understand Them 120
Behaviour versus Value 123
Conclusion 126
6 Map the Trip 127
Introduction 127
Infrastructure 128
Policy Infrastructure 128
Payment Services Directive (PSD 2) 130
Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies 131
India’s Aadhaar 132
Drug Discovery 134
Technology Infrastructure 134
Rise of the Machines 135
AWS and Innovation 136
Broadband and Video Genre 137
Ecosystem Infrastructure 139
Talent Infrastructure 139
Funding Infrastructure 141
The Missing Link 145
Conclusion 147
7 From Fiats to Ferraris 149
Introduction 149
The 4D Lens 150
Time: Longevity 151
Time: Velocity 151
Space: Scale 152
Space: Weight 152
The Business Model Barometer 153
Contractually Predictable 155
Enterprise Software 155
Software as a Service (SaaS) 156
Subscription 157
Behaviourally Predictable 158
Advertising 160
Transactional 161
Hybrid 162
Marketplace 162
Mix, Match and Moonshot 164
Conclusion 167
8 Hit Refresh 169
Introduction 169
Third-Order Optimisation 170
The Pirate Metrics 171
Shades of Grey 172
Preserve the Soul 175
Continue Experimentation 176
Build for a Crisis 177
Tip 1: Values Make or Break Firms 179
Tip 2: It’s the Team, Idiot 180
Tip 3: Decentralising Decision-Making 181
Tip 4: Data-Driven Accountability 182
Tip 5: Embracing Cost Consciousness 182
Tip 6: Growing Responsibly 183
Tip 7: Tapping into a Support Network 184
Tip 8: Mind the Mind 184
Conclusion 187
9 Winner Winner Chicken Dinner 189
Introduction 189
The Macro Environment 190
What History Tells Us 191
Wear Your Mask First 194
Cold Decisions and Humane Execution 197
Customer Is King 200
Infrastructure Catalysts 203
Business Model Evaluation 206
All Change 208
Conclusion 212
Glossary 215
Index 221
