Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts

Acknowledgements
About the Author
Introduction

Part I: The Background to Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Chapter 1: An Introduction to Reasoning
Chapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence Analysis
Chapter 3: An Introduction to the Information Age

Part II: The Theory of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning in General
Chapter 4: Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning
The Structural, Informal Logical, and Elements of the Mind Paradigms
Chapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach to Reasoning
Introducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific Dimensions
Chapter 6: The Personal Dimension of Reasoning
Ideal Reasoning as Virtues to Embody
Chapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of Reasoning
Ideal Reasoning as Rules to Follow
Chapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of Reasoning
Ideal Reasoning as Questions to Ask

Part III: The Practice of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning in General
Chapter 9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an Analyst
The Method of “Analytic Balance Check”
Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis
The Method of “Analytic Process Reflection”
Chapter 11: How to Know the Right Problem for Analysis
The Method of “Analytic Problem Classification”

Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “What is Happening?”
Chapter 12: Important Extant Approaches to Hypothesis Development
The Falsificationist, Bayesian, and Explanationist Paradigms
Chapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to Hypothesis Development
Introducing the Idea, Information, and Implication Dimensions

Part V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “What is Happening?”
Chapter 14: How to Generate New Ideas
The Method of “Dialectical Hypothesis Generation”
Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable Hypothesis
The Method of “Triadic Hypothesis Development”
Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been Taken For Granted
The Method of “Underlying Assumptions Triangulation”

Part VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?”
Chapter 17: Important Extant Approaches to Causal Analysis
The Probabilistic, Interventionist, and Systems Dynamics Paradigms
Chapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to Causal Analysis
Introducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise Dimensions

Part VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?”
Chapter 19: How to Identify Individual Connections
The Method of “Causal Influence Classification”
Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective Connections
The Method of “Causal Loop Diagramming”
Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections
(And How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence)
The Method of “Background Shift Analysis”

Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?”
Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures Exploration
The Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario Paradigms
Chapter 23: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration
Introducing the Origin, Outreach, and Outcome Dimensions

Part IX: The Practice of Futures Exploration for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?”
Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin of a Future Possibility
The Method of “Convergent Scenario Development”
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I)
Chapter 25: How to Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture
(And Foresee Possible Unintended Consequences)
The Method of “Ripple Effect Analysis”
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II)
Chapter 26: How to Identify the Most Plausible Future Outcomes
The Method of “Divergent Scenario Development”
(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)

Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Paradigms of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?”
Chapter 27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy Assessment
The Risk, Ignorance, and Game Theory Paradigms
Chapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures Exploration
Introducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation Dimensions

Part XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence Analysts
Methods of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?”
Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making
Without Known Outcomes or Expectations
The Method of “Strategic Relevance Check”
Chapter 30: How to Support Decision-Making
About Known Outcomes With Unknown Expectations
The Method of “Decision Significance Comparison”
Chapter 31: How to Support Decision-Making
About Known Outcomes With Known Expectations
The Method of “Expectation Impact Analysis”

Conclusion
About the Author