Proof

The Uncertain Science of Certainty

By: Adam Kucharski

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Hardcover | 24 June 2025

At a Glance

Hardcover
368 Pages

Dimensions(cm)
23.8 x 16.2 x 3.4

Hardcover

RRP $49.99

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How do we know what's true? The author of the bestselling The Rules of Contagion searches over two thousand years of history and science to find out

How do we establish what we believe? And how can we be certain that what we believe is true? And, assuming we are certain that what we believe is true, how do we convince other people that it is true? For over two thousand years, from the Medieval Arabic world to the midst of the covid-19 pandemic, scientific progress has relied on different methods of establishing fact from fiction. Achieve logical perfection and be rewarded with ultimate, universal truth. But there is far more to proof than axioms, theories and laws: when demonstrating that a new medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone's guilt, or deciding whether you trust a self-driving car or a financial transaction, the weighing up of evidence is far from simple. To navigate proof, we must reach into a thicket of errors and biases, embrace uncertainty, to discern between truth and falsehood - never more so than when previously relied-upon methods fail. In Proof, bestselling author, statistician and epidemiologist Adam Kucharski spans science, politics, philosophy and economics, to explore how truth emerges - and why it falters.

Industry Reviews

'Praise for The Rules of Contagion:
It is hard to imagine a more timely publication...a useful, eye-opening read [and] a worthwhile book; much of the modern world will make more sense having read it.' - Sunday Times

'A clear, calm, historical overview of the mathematical ideas at the forefront of our pandemic response, where they came from and how well they stand up when you put them to the test.' - Hannah Fry

'Charts the history of this now-pivotal science, from its origins in understanding the spread of malaria, to its central role in predicting the dissemination of everything from diseases to fake news.' - Economist

'Astonishingly bold...Kucharski has pulled off the extraordinary trick of shining the brightest light on this unseen, menacing, but ultimately beatable, enemy.' - Daily Mail

'The Rules of Contagion is a timely reminder of the importance of disease modelling. Without such models, we would be in far greater trouble battling COVID-19.' - Lancet

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