The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data were too weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result economists as a group have not been clear or
conclusive.This volume, based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic-economic relationships,
and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular, evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a much clearer pattern in recent decades than was evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggests that changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic
gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as
the Asian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causal relationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces
poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families.Population Matters represents an important
further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.
Industry Reviews
`Review from previous edition Economists notoriously disagree about the economic impact of rapid population growth in poor countries. Here's a new round of serious analysis with a healthy focus not only on the old question of how population change affects growth, but on the more fundamental question -- of how population change affects people's welfare.'
Lawrence Summers, former US Treasury Secretary and President, Harvard University
`Many university courses or textbooks on economic development have very little to say about the role of population. They discuss the progress of growth in per capita income, but have very much more to say about the income than the capita. At the same time, for those who have taken an interest, population issues have been highly controversial, with little in the way of conclusive results. Population Matters puts things right. It comes to new and clear
conclusions, and establishes what its title implies: those interested in economic development ignore population at the peril of missing a key factor. More than that, it gives researchers, teachers, and
practitioners a place to go. The book will for a long time be a point of reference, providing a rich and subtle discussion of a broad range of critical questions; it reflects the state of the art in the subject matter it covers.'
Professor Robert Cassen, London School of Economics
`At the start of the new millennium, nearly five billion people live in the less developed regions of the globe -- in countries where material poverty is still pervasive. If birth rates in these regions had remained as they were fifty years ago, that number would be higher by some two billion. This is the enormous demographic effect of the fertility transition that has taken place. Anyone who wants to understand the impact of that transition on economic
growth and poverty should read this book.'
Paul Demeny, The Population Council
`Provides a very valuable discussion, with detailed references, of the knotty methodological issues inherent in the demography-development debate. . . . Anyone concerned with how population change affects the development prospects of poor countries will profit from reading these essays.'
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director, The Earth Institute, Columbia University
`This book is one of the most important contributions in the past few years to the debate about the macro consequences of population change.'
Journal of Peace Research
