-In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a tour de force from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers.-
--Michael E. Brown, George Washington University
-At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light.-
--Robert Jervis, Columbia University
-Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero? is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics.-
--John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago
-This is a most unusual book . . . a meticulous history of debate among all those most concerned with the issue of 'no nuclear weapons' during the crucial period when it was the main preoccupation of all those most concerned and responsible for decisions in the 1930s and 1940s, from Roosevelt and Churchill to Stalin, to Neils Bohr and Hans Bethe, LeO SzilArd and Peter Kapitsa, General Groves and J. Robert Oppenheimer, long before it became a preoccupation of civilian arms controllers. The author, with good taste, refrains from promoting his own conclusions, letting the arguments do their work.-
--Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland
-Nuclear Zero? adds significantly to George Quester's already distinguished contributions to our understanding of nuclear weapons and deterrence. Nuclear Zero? provides a theory-driven inquiry into the history of the development of nuclear weapons. Quester's recounting of the history is fascinating and nuanced. He shows that skeptics are correct that fears of rearmament driven by prisoner-dilemma pressures would likely make disarmament both difficult to achieve and maintain, and dangerous as well. Quester illustrates the basic arguments by showing how scientists and leaders confronted the trade-offs between transparency and secrecy, adopted worst-case analyses, and grappled with technical challenges--for example, dual use technologies--that would likely reoccur in one form or another if states move once again toward nuclear zero.-
--Charles L. Glaser, The George Washington University
"In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a tour de force from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers."
--Michael E. Brown, George Washington University
"At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light."
--Robert Jervis, Columbia University
"Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero? is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics."
--John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago
"This is a most unusual book . . . a meticulous history of debate among all those most concerned with the issue of 'no nuclear weapons' during the crucial period when it was the main preoccupation of all those most concerned and responsible for decisions in the 1930s and 1940s, from Roosevelt and Churchill to Stalin, to Neils Bohr and Hans Bethe, LeO SzilArd and Peter Kapitsa, General Groves and J. Robert Oppenheimer, long before it became a preoccupation of civilian arms controllers. The author, with good taste, refrains from promoting his own conclusions, letting the arguments do their work."
--Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland
"Nuclear Zero? adds significantly to George Quester's already distinguished contributions to our understanding of nuclear weapons and deterrence. Nuclear Zero? provides a theory-driven inquiry into the history of the development of nuclear weapons. Quester's recounting of the history is fascinating and nuanced. He shows that skeptics are correct that fears of rearmament driven by prisoner-dilemma pressures would likely make disarmament both difficult to achieve and maintain, and dangerous as well. Quester illustrates the basic arguments by showing how scientists and leaders confronted the trade-offs between transparency and secrecy, adopted worst-case analyses, and grappled with technical challenges--for example, dual use technologies--that would likely reoccur in one form or another if states move once again toward nuclear zero."
--Charles L. Glaser, The George Washington University
"In a world without nuclear weapons, would peace prevail? Answering this question is not a purely abstract, analytical exercise. In Nuclear Zero? Lessons from the Last Time We Were There, George Quester analyzes the strategic and political factors that drove nuclear decision making in the 1930s and 1940s. He concludes that the strategic dynamics of arms racing--prisoners' dilemmas, preemptive fears, dual-use complications, secrecy and uncertainty--are powerful and enduring. The lesson for the 21st century is that the process of getting to zero will be difficult and could be dangerous. This book makes major contributions to nuclear history, strategic studies, and current policy debates about the prospects for nuclear disarmament. It is a tour de force from one of the field's greatest scholars and sharpest thinkers."
--Michael E. Brown, George Washington University
"At first glance it seems impossible to get empirical evidence on what the world would look like if nuclear weapons were abolished. But with the creativity and skill that we have come to expect from him, George Quester does so by looking at the 1940s. The results are fascinating, and both that world and the arguments for nuclear abolition appear in a different light."
--Robert Jervis, Columbia University
"Most people would surely like to live in a world without nuclear weapons. George Quester shows in subtle and sophisticated ways that this is not going to happen, and moreover, it is not smart to pursue this goal. Indeed, it would probably make the world more dangerous. Nuclear Zero? is a terrific book that should be read by anyone interested in how nuclear weapons affect international politics."
--John J. Mearsheimer, The University of Chicago
"This is a most unusual book . . . a meticulous history of debate among all those most concerned with the issue of 'no nuclear weapons' during the crucial period when it was the main preoccupation of all those most concerned and responsible for decisions in the 1930s and 1940s, from Roosevelt and Churchill to Stalin, to Neils Bohr and Hans Bethe, LeO SzilArd and Peter Kapitsa, General Groves and J. Robert Oppenheimer, long before it became a preoccupation of civilian arms controllers. The author, with good taste, refrains from promoting his own conclusions, letting the arguments do their work."
--Thomas C. Schelling, University of Maryland
"Nuclear Zero? adds significantly to George Quester's already distinguished contributions to our understanding of nuclear weapons and deterrence. Nuclear Zero? provides a theory-driven inquiry into the history of the development of nuclear weapons. Quester's recounting of the history is fascinating and nuanced. He shows that skeptics are correct that fears of rearmament driven by prisoner-dilemma pressures would likely make disarmament both difficult to achieve and maintain, and dangerous as well. Quester illustrates the basic arguments by showing how scientists and leaders confronted the trade-offs between transparency and secrecy, adopted worst-case analyses, and grappled with technical challenges--for example, dual use technologies--that would likely reoccur in one form or another if states move once again toward nuclear zero."
--Charles L. Glaser, The George Washington University
