Naive Decision Making

By: T. W. Korner

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Paperback | 16 October 2008

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390 Pages

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22.23 x 14.61 x 1.91

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How should one choose the best restaurant to eat in? Can one really make money at gambling? Or predict the future? Naive Decision Making presents the mathematical basis for making decisions where the outcome may be uncertain or the interests of others have to taken into consideration. Professor Koerner takes the reader on an enjoyable journey through many aspects of mathematical decision making, with pithy observations, anecdotes and quotations. Topics include probability, statistics, Arrow's theorem, Game Theory and Nash equilibrium. Readers will also gain a great deal of insight into mathematics in general and the role it can play within society. Intended for those with elementary calculus, this book is ideal as a supplementary text for undergraduate courses in probability, game theory and decision making. Engaging and intriguing, it will also appeal to all those of a mathematical mind. To aid understanding, many exercises are included, with solutions available online.

Industry Reviews

'This is a highly readable and erudite book that will excite anyone prepared to open their mind to the ways in which a mathematical approach can help us make better choices in an uncertain world.' Significance
'Naive Decision Making is a book full of pleasure. The writing is crisp, clear, and full of wit. Koerner has managed to strike a nice balance between chatty and technical, between formal proofs and illustrative examples, and between breadth and depth of the topics considered. ... the decision of where to put the book on my shelf has been a theoretical one so far, as I keep lending my copy out to other people. I have already referred a number of my students and colleagues to this book, and I am sure I will refer more in the future. In short, recommending Naive Decision Making is an easy decision to make.' MAA Reviews
'Although often tongue-in-cheek and unafraid of iconoclasm, the book is a true educational resource, an invigorating, entertaining, and thoughtful introduction to many important mathematical topics.' Mathematics Today
'The author presents various aspects of mathematical decisions using not only realistic examples but also jokes, games, quotations, etc. ... The book can serve as a supplementary text for undergraduate courses in probability, game theory and decision making. Moreover, many exercises are included with solutions available online.' EMS Newsletter

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Introduction	p. xi
A day at the races	p. 1
Money for nothing	p. 1
The ideal bookmaker	p. 5
Negative money	p. 9
Probability and expectation	p. 10
Back to the races	p. 15
Betting last at the tote	p. 19
Betting first	p. 25
Real race-tracks	p. 31
The long run	p. 34
The laws of probability	p. 34
Cards, dice and coin tossing	p. 38
Random variables	p. 43
Independence	p. 49
A law of large numbers	p. 60
A long day at the races	p. 71
The two-horse race	p. 78
The vice of gambling and the virtue of insurance	p. 83
Bernard Shaw	p. 83
Annuities	p. 86
Smallpox	p. 93
Should we inoculate?	p. 99
Utility and Jensen's inequality	p. 103
Passing the time	p. 111
The three towers	p. 111
Euclid's algorithm	p. 113
Arithmetic modulo n	p. 120
Arithmetic modulo p	p. 128
Arithmetic modulo pq	p. 133
Mr Jonas entertains	p. 140
A pack of cards	p. 148
Find the largest	p. 148
Records	p. 150
How to choose a restaurant	p. 153
Back to sorting	p. 159
Shortest paths	p. 166
Other people	p. 176
Marrying	p. 176
Voting	p. 183
Preferring	p. 189
Simple games	p. 195
Scissors, Paper, Stone	p. 195
Scissors, Paper	p. 199
Can we generalise?	p. 204
Morra	p. 209
Can we generalise further?	p. 213
A noisy duel	p. 216
Points of agreement	p. 221
An evening out	p. 221
Technical points	p. 227
What about reality?	p. 230
Fixed points	p. 233
Nash equilibrium	p. 236
Hawks, doves and others	p. 240
Long duels	p. 249
A, B and C	p. 249
The three-sided duel	p. 252
One-person duels	p. 257
HHH	p. 267
Tit for tat	p. 271
Foundational matters	p. 277
A night at the casino	p. 282
How to gamble if you must	p. 282
Boldness be my friend	p. 286
Difference and differential equations	p. 292
The casino's view	p. 298
A flutter on the lottery	p. 308
Life is a lottery	p. 316
Prophecy	p. 321
Coin tossing	p. 321
A needle in a haystack	p. 324
Tchebychev improved	p. 326
A better needle?	p. 331
Final reflections	p. 335
First the music, then the words	p. 335
Mathematics and decision making	p. 341
The logarithm	p. 345
Cardano	p. 351
Huygens's problems	p. 358
Hints on pronunciation	p. 364
Bibliography	p. 366
Index	p. 370
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

Naive Decision Making

At a Glance

Paperback

Industry Reviews

Shipping

How to return your order

Defective items

You Can Find This Book In

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