Preface xi
Introduction 1
1 Knowledge 5
Gaining New Knowledge 5
Scientific Method: What Is It? 7
Further Observations on the Scientific Method 8
Reasoning Logically 10
Public (Objective) and Private (Subjective) Knowledge 11
The Role of Doubt in Doing Science 11
Evidence: Its use and Avoidance 12
Metaphysics and its Relation to Science 12
Objectivity, Advocacy, and Bias 13
Analogy and Metaphor 14
2 What is a Model? 17
Defining âModelâ 17
Model Attributes: A New Taxonomy 20
Examples of Models in Terms of the Attributes 25
Why Make the Effort to Model? 27
Attribute Considerations in Making Models Useful 27
Social Choice 30
What Models are Not 31
3 Important Distinctions in Modeling 33
Objective and Subjective Models 33
Simple and Complex Models 35
Descriptive and Prescriptive (Normative) Models 36
Static and Dynamic Models 36
Deterministic and Probabilistic Models 36
Hierarchy of Abstraction 37
Some Philosophical Perspectives 38
4 Forms of Representation 41
Verbal Models 41
Graphs 42
Maps 44
Schematic Diagrams 45
Logic Diagrams 46
Crisp Versus Fuzzy Logic (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Fuzzy Logicâ) 48
Symbolic Statements and Statistical Inference (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Statistical Inference From Evidenceâ) 50
5 Acquiring Information 51
Information Communication (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Information Communicationâ) 51
Information Value (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Information Valueâ) 53
LogarithmicâLike Psychophysical Scales 54
Perception Process (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of the Brunswik/Kirlik Perception Modelâ) 54
Attention 55
Visual Sampling (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of How Often to Sampleâ) 56
Signal Detection (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Signal Detectionâ) 58
Situation Awareness 59
Mental Workload (see also Appendix, Section âResearch Questions Concerning Mental Workloadâ) 60
Experiencing What is Virtual: New Demands for Humanâ"System Modeling (see also Appendix Section âBehavior Research Issues in Virtual Realityâ) 64
6 Analyzing the Information 69
Task Analysis 69
Judgment Calibration 70
Valuation/Utility (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Human Judgment of Utilityâ) 72
Risk and Resilience 73
Definition of Risk 73
Meaning of Resilience 73
Trust 75
7 Deciding on Action 77
What is Achievable 77
Decision Under Condition of Certainty (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Decisions Under Certaintyâ) 78
Decision Under Condition of Uncertainty (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Decisions Under Uncertaintyâ) 79
Competitive Decisions: Game Models (see also Appendix âMathematics of Game Modelsâ) 79
Order of Subtask Execution 80
8 Implementing and Evaluating the Action 83
Time to Make a Selection 83
Time to Make an Accurate Movement 84
Continuous Feedback Control (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Continuous Feedback Controlâ) 85
Looking Ahead (Preview Control) (see also Appendix, Section âMathematics of Preview Controlâ) 87
Delayed Feedback 88
Control by Continuously Updating an Internal Model (see also Appendix, Section âStepping Through the Kalman Filter Systemâ) 88
Expectation of Team Response Time 90
Human Error 91
9 Humanâ"Automation Interaction 95
Humanâ"Automation Allocation 95
Supervisory Control 96
Trading and Sharing 98
Adaptive/Adaptable Control 101
ModelâBased Failure Detection 102
10 Mental Models 105
What is a Mental Model? 105
Background of Research on Mental Models 106
ACTâR 108
Lattice Characterization of a Mental Model 110
Neuronal Packet Network as a Model of Understanding 112
Modeling of Aircraft Pilot DecisionâMaking Under Time Stress 113
Mutual Compatibility of Mental, Display, Control, and Computer Models 114
11 Can Cognitive Engineering Modeling Contribute to Modeling LargeâScale SocioâTechnical Systems? 115
Basic Questions 115
What LargeâScale Social Systems are we Talking About? 116
What Models? 120
Potential of Feedback Control Modeling of LargeâScale Societal Systems 122
The STAMP Model for Assessing Errors in LargeâScale Systems 122
Past World Modeling Efforts 123
Toward Broader Participation 124
Appendix 129
Mathematics of Fuzzy Logic 129
Mathematics of Statistical Inference from Evidence 131
Mathematics of Information Communication 132
Mathematics of Information Value 134
Mathematics of the Brunswik/Kirlik Perception Model 135
Mathematics of How Often to Sample 136
Mathematics of Signal Detection 138
Research Questions Concerning Mental Workload 141
Behavior Research Issues in Virtual Reality 144
Mathematics of Human Judgment of Utility 146
Mathematics of Decisions Under Certainty 147
Mathematics of Decisions Under Uncertainty 149
Mathematics of Game Models 150
Mathematics of Continuous Feedback Control 152
Mathematics of Preview Control 153
Stepping Through the Kalman Filter System 154
References 159
Index 167
