Frontier

With advanced economies shackled by debt and recession, investors are turning to emerging markets for better returns. Yet the money managers who earned the most in countries like China, India, Russia and Brazil are more interested in places yet to emerge.' In Frontier, we go on the road with eight of the most successful fund managers for an unparalleled guide to assessing growth potential in places better known for conflict, corruption and poverty. A practical manual for investors, Frontier is also a must-read for executives seeking to attract global capital and finance professionals and students to better understand the changing dynamics of international investment. Table of Contents Introduction: The New World Order ( 2,000 words)- Sets out rationale for focus on frontier markets as the global debt crisis redefines the investing universe- Introduces diversity of frontier markets and criteria for country/ stock/ bond selection- Introduces the best performing fund managers Chapters 1-8: Eight chapters follow, each focused on one country. Six will be top picks on a five- to 10-year horizon from the most successful money managers. Two will be countries the experts are staying away from. The bad'' country chapters will be interspersed with the good.'' E.g. First chapter might be Franklin Templeton's Mark Mobius visiting Egypt: Chapter 1 Pyramid Selling: When Mobius Met Morsi Framework ( 2,500 words, or first 25-30% of each chapter)Each chapter will begin with an overview, introducing a country (in this example, Egypt), its strengths and risks, and a fund manager's (in this example, Mobius's) investment approach. While framed as a road trip for readability, the writing will be tight and focused on testing investment criteria. The reader won't know at the start whether the country is a good or bad pick (i.e. whether an investment is achieved.) Chapter title will evoke the drama of the journey. The key focus will be on delivering fresh ideas based on big money manager assessments when meeting challenges/ hostilities/ adversity and observations after grilling top-level government officials and executives. Interwoven is an initial grounding in the analysis to follow, along with the politics, economics and history of each country and the fund managers' methodology - what triggers them to invest millions or throws up a flare. While focused around one fund manager, each chapter will take perspective from peers on the country/ stocks/ bonds and the performance and management style of their rival. Analysis ( 6,000 words, or 70-75% of each chapter, incl. Bloomberg charts/ illustrations)Each chapter will then take a detailed look at the opportunity/ risk identified by the fund manager. While covering technical information, the analysis will be lively - provocative headers on real-world topics. The analysis will incorporate: ? Qualitative macro/ country criteria - political risk, rule of law, corruption, capital restrictions, tax, banking stability, market regulation, transparency, accessibility? Macro data - expected GDP growth, trade balance, export agreements, indebtedness, Transparency International ranking, inclusion in fund manager indexes, liquidity? Qualitative stock selection criteria - management credentials, corporate governance, accountability, relationships, goodwill? Stock data - valuation metrics/ peer comparisons, earnings outlook, M&A potential, volatility, analyst coverage? Corporate and government bond criteria - default risk, credit ratings, relative value (yield/ spread) analysis? Triggers to watch for that could provide buy/ add signals for countries chosen or transform rejected countries Each chapter will end with conclusions on the suitability of the country as an investment choice plus a summary of individual stocks/ bonds worth considering. This will also be summarized in tables for easy reference, incorporating the key criteria identified and peer comparisons. Final summary ( 2,000 words, end of book, incl. Bloomberg tables/ charts) ? Rank countries on consensus from all eight fund managers? Rank countries based on matrix of data/ qualitative assessments from each chapter? Rank stocks/ bonds with best long-term potential? Triggers to look for to add/ reduce holdings? Show which mutual funds have the biggest weightings in those countries/ companies/ bonds ranked the best Country Selection: Six countries will be the best picks of the money managers. Nigeria, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Bahrain, Botswana, Ukraine, Jordan and Ghana are among potential candidates, based on a Bloomberg Rankings assessment of the Most Promising Frontier Markets. Nigeria, Egypt and Kenya are favorites for Mark Mobius, the biggest dedicated emerging-market equity investor. Interspersed will be two countries offering potential that are rejected as investments for now - Argentina may be an example because of the government's hostile international relations or Pakistan because of violent conflict.