| Background | |
| Introduction | p. 3 |
| Famine Early Warning in a Modern Age | p. 6 |
| Lives and Livelihoods | p. 9 |
| What is Remote Sensing? | p. 11 |
| FEWS NET as an Multi-Disciplinary Project | p. 13 |
| Summary of Chapters | p. 14 |
| Remote Sensing for Early Warning | p. 15 |
| Food Security Analysis | p. 17 |
| Case Studies | p. 18 |
| Looking to the Future | p. 20 |
| References | p. 20 |
| Conceptual Frameworks | p. 23 |
| The Process of Early Warning | p. 25 |
| Concepts of Food Security | p. 26 |
| Agroecosystems and Food Security | p. 29 |
| African Agroecosystems | p. 30 |
| Early Warning of Food Insecurity | p. 32 |
| Humanitarian Response to Early Warning | p. 34 |
| Challenges and Opportunities for FEWS NET | p. 36 |
| Summary | p. 37 |
| References | p. 38 |
| FEWS NET's Structure and Remote Sensing | p. 41 |
| FEWS NET Implementation | p. 42 |
| FEWS NET Field Offices | p. 43 |
| Food Security Status Alerts | p. 47 |
| FEWS NET Livelihood Monitoring and Assessment | p. 48 |
| Socio-Economic Monitoring | p. 49 |
| Biophysical and Socio-Economic Data for Analysis | p. 52 |
| Weather Hazard Assessments | p. 52 |
| Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 59 |
| Summary | p. 60 |
| References | p. 60 |
| Remote Sensing for Early Warning | |
| Rainfall Estimates | p. 65 |
| NOAA's Rainfall Estimate (RFE) Product | p. 65 |
| Global Telecommunications System Gauge Data | p. 69 |
| Satellite Data Input and Algorithm for the RFE | p. 72 |
| Rainfall Estimate Algorithm | p. 75 |
| African Rainfall Climatology (ARC) Data | p. 75 |
| The CHARM Dataset | p. 77 |
| Rainfall Datasets in Regions Outside of Africa | p. 78 |
| Challenges in Rainfall Monitoring | p. 79 |
| Summary | p. 79 |
| References | p. 80 |
| Derived Agricultural and Climate Monitoring Products | p. 83 |
| Climate Diagnostics | p. 83 |
| Agricultural Season Monitoring Products | p. 87 |
| Start of Season Data | p. 87 |
| Flooding and Runoff Models Driven by RFE Data | p. 88 |
| Standardized Precipitation Index | p. 89 |
| Crop Models Driven by Rainfall Data | p. 90 |
| Soil Moisture Indices | p. 92 |
| Limitations of Production Estimates Based on Rainfall | p. 93 |
| Summary | p. 95 |
| References | p. 95 |
| Vegetation Index Measurements | p. 97 |
| What is NDVI? | p. 98 |
| What does NDVI Measure? | p. 100 |
| NDVI Composites and Time Series Construction | p. 101 |
| NDVI Time Series Data for Agriculture Monitoring | p. 103 |
| Comparison Between NDVI Datasets | p. 104 |
| NDVI for Monitoring Forage Conditions | p. 109 |
| Desert Locust Monitoring | p. 110 |
| MODIS Snow Product for Afghanistan | p. 111 |
| High Resolution Spectral Vegetation Data for Cropped Area Estimates | p. 113 |
| Summary | p. 116 |
| References | p. 116 |
| Climate Forecasts | p. 119 |
| Numerical Climate Forecasts | p. 119 |
| 1-4 and 5-7 Day Forecasts | p. 120 |
| One and Four Month Canonical Correlation Analysis Climate Model | p. 121 |
| Seasonal Forecasts from Other Organizations | p. 124 |
| Interpreting Probabilistic Forecasts | p. 125 |
| NDVI and Rainfall Projections | p. 127 |
| NDVI Projections | p. 128 |
| Rainfall Projections | p. 130 |
| Summary | p. 131 |
| References | p. 131 |
| Food Security Analysis | |
| FEWS NET's Integrated Analytical Areas | p. 135 |
| Analysis of Entitlement Decline | p. 137 |
| FEWS NET and Livelihoods | p. 138 |
| Markets and Trade | p. 141 |
| Climate | p. 144 |
| Crop Production | p. 145 |
| Livestock | p. 146 |
| Example of Pastoral Crisis Caused by Variable Rainfall: Kenya | p. 146 |
| Conflict/Security | p. 148 |
| Health and Nutrition | p. 148 |
| Nutrition and Food Consumption | p. 149 |
| Nutrition and Disease | p. 150 |
| Example of Nutrition Surveillance and Monitoring in Kenya | p. 152 |
| Water and Sanitation | p. 153 |
| Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 153 |
| Summary | p. 154 |
| References | p. 155 |
| Dynamic Communication and Decision Support | p. 157 |
| Decisions and Decision Makers | p. 158 |
| Nutritional Assessments | p. 161 |
| FEWS NET Products | p. 163 |
| Elements in Monthly Country Reports | p. 165 |
| Alert Levels | p. 166 |
| Executive Briefings | p. 166 |
| Cross Border Trade in Southern Africa | p. 168 |
| Other Reports | p. 168 |
| Decision Support Through Networking | p. 169 |
| Challenges for FEWS NET in Decision Support | p. 171 |
| Summary | p. 171 |
| References | p. 172 |
| Use of Remote Sensing in FEWS NET Country and Regional Offices | p. 173 |
| Building Capacity | p. 175 |
| Remote Sensing Data and Local Food Security Specialists | p. 176 |
| Integrative Activities at the Local Level | p. 178 |
| Climate Outlook Forum | p. 178 |
| Improvement of Local Rainfall Data | p. 181 |
| Crop and Rangeland Monitoring with Local WRSI | p. 182 |
| Validation of WRSI Product | p. 183 |
| Improved Accessibility of Geospatial Biophysical and Socio-Economic Datasets | p. 184 |
| Flow of Information from Satellite to Analysis to Decision Maker | p. 185 |
| Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 186 |
| Summary | p. 186 |
| References | p. 187 |
| Population Datasets | p. 189 |
| Using Population Data to Estimate Food Aid | p. 189 |
| Global Population of the World and LandScan Data | p. 191 |
| Census Counts | p. 193 |
| Other Input Variables | p. 193 |
| Census Figures by Administrative Region | p. 194 |
| Roads | p. 194 |
| Slope | p. 194 |
| Land Cover | p. 195 |
| Populated Places and Nighttime Lights | p. 196 |
| Urban Density Factor | p. 197 |
| Coastlines | p. 197 |
| LandScan Population Model | p. 198 |
| FEWS NET Evaluation of LandScan | p. 198 |
| Challenges for FEWS NET and Future Plans | p. 200 |
| Summary | p. 201 |
| References | p. 201 |
| Food Markets and Prices | p. 203 |
| Monitoring for Early Warning | p. 204 |
| RATIN Analysis for Cross-Border Trade | p. 205 |
| RATES Program | p. 206 |
| Price Modeling for Earlier Early Warning | p. 207 |
| Model Price Inputs | p. 208 |
| Satellite Vegetation Data | p. 210 |
| Methodology | p. 210 |
| Results | p. 213 |
| Maps of Prices | p. 214 |
| The Meaning of Price Maps | p. 215 |
| Role of Trade in Food Provision | p. 216 |
| Role of Prices in Southern African Crisis of 2001/2002 | p. 216 |
| Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 218 |
| Summary | p. 218 |
| References | p. 219 |
| Scenario Development and Contingency Planning | p. 221 |
| Background on Contingency Planning and Scenarios | p. 222 |
| Information Requirements for Planners | p. 223 |
| Scenarios and Early Warning | p. 224 |
| Ethiopia Contingency Planning Scenarios for 2006 | p. 226 |
| Best Case Scenario | p. 227 |
| Mid-Case Scenario | p. 227 |
| Worst Case Scenario | p. 228 |
| Food Aid Needs Under Each Scenario | p. 228 |
| Agriculture and Livestock | p. 230 |
| Climate Data and Contingency Planning | p. 231 |
| Challenges for FEWS NET | p. 233 |
| Summary | p. 234 |
| References | p. 234 |
| Case Studies | |
| Case Study: Ethiopia and the 2002-2003 Food Security Crisis | p. 239 |
| The Food Security Crisis in Ethiopia, 2002-2003 | p. 239 |
| Vulnerability to Drought | p. 240 |
| Livelihoods Crisis | p. 242 |
| Stages of the 2002/03 Crisis | p. 243 |
| The Regional Agro-Climatic Situation | p. 243 |
| Other Pests and Problems in the Region | p. 246 |
| The Food Security Situation | p. 248 |
| Cereal Prices and Their Impact | p. 251 |
| Drought Tendencies in Ethiopia | p. 252 |
| Responding to the New Normal: Relief and Development | p. 253 |
| Summary | p. 255 |
| References | p. 255 |
| Remote Sensing Data in the Mesoamerican Food Security Early Warning System (MFEWS) | p. 257 |
| MFEWS and Remote Sensing | p. 258 |
| Remote Sensing for Agricultural Monitoring | p. 259 |
| Regional Characteristics | p. 260 |
| Livelihood Zones | p. 261 |
| Maize Production Monitoring with WRSI | p. 262 |
| Impact of the Honduras Drought of 2006 | p. 264 |
| International Maize Prices | p. 265 |
| Resulting Poverty and Food Insecurity in Honduras | p. 266 |
| Summary | p. 268 |
| References | p. 268 |
| Zimbabwe's Crisis of 2006-2007 | p. 269 |
| Food Security Situation in Zimbabwe in Early 2007 | p. 270 |
| Economic Situation | p. 271 |
| Estimating Production from MODIS NDVI | p. 273 |
| Vegetation-Sum Metric | p. 274 |
| Shifting the NDVI to the Onset of Rains | p. 276 |
| Recent Declines in Zimbabwe Production | p. 277 |
| The 2006-07 Filled-Season Vegetation-Sum Estimates | p. 278 |
| Analysis of Zimbabwe Food Security Situation | p. 279 |
| Summary | p. 280 |
| References | p. 280 |
| Analysis and the Future | |
| Power, Politics and Remote Sensing | p. 285 |
| Changing Perceptions of Food Security | p. 286 |
| Power and Politics in the Use of Remote Sensing | p. 287 |
| Zimbabwe | p. 288 |
| Politics in Kenya and Remote Sensing | p. 290 |
| Trend Analysis in Ethiopia | p. 292 |
| Political Challenges for FEWS NET and its Use of Remote Sensing | p. 293 |
| Summary | p. 295 |
| References | p. 295 |
| The Future of FEWS NET | p. 297 |
| Anticipating Future Food Security Problems | p. 298 |
| Improving Communication Across the Center-Periphery | p. 299 |
| Innovations in Reporting | p. 301 |
| Remote Sensing Innovation | p. 302 |
| Challenges and Opportunities | p. 304 |
| P.L. 480 and FEWS NET | p. 305 |
| Coping with Climate Change | p. 306 |
| Integrating Remote Sensing and Socio-Economic Variables | p. 307 |
| Conclusion | p. 307 |
| References | p. 308 |
| Index | p. 311 |
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