Everything Is Predictable

How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World

Hardcover | 25 April 2024 | Edition Number 1

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SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024

'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting' Oliver Burkeman

'A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem' Will Storr

'Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you' Tim Harford

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.

Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.

Industry Reviews

Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting . . . I finished it not only better informed about a captivating branch of mathematics, but with an invigorating sense of greater purchase on the world

A remarkable book by a remarkable writer about a remarkable theorem. The statistical chance of it not changing how you see the world is zero

One thing that is perfectly predictable is that Tom Chivers writes terrific books. This one is no exception: it's witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you

Chivers makes a compelling case that Bayes' Theorem is the one formula that everyone should understand

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