Everyday Probability and Statistics

Health, Elections, Gambling and War (2nd Edition)

By: WOOLFSON MICHAEL MARK

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Hardcover | 15 June 2012 | Edition Number 2

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Hardcover
290 Pages

Edition Type
Revised

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22.86 x 15.24 x 1.55

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Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways - as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to give a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways.In this second edition the author presents a new chapter exploring science and society including the way that scientists communicate with the public on current topics, such as global warming. The book also investigates pensions and pension policy, and how they are influenced by changing actuarial tables.

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Published: 15th June 2012

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Introduction	p. 1
The Nature of Probability	p. 7
Probability and Everyday Speech	p. 7
Spinning a Coin	p. 8
Throwing or Spinning Other Objects	p. 10
Problems 1	p. 12
Combining Probabilities	p. 15
Either-or Probability	p. 15
Both-and Probability	p. 17
Genetically Inherited Disease - Just Gene Dependent	p. 18
Genetically Inherited Disease - Gender Dependent	p. 21
A Dice Game - American Craps	p. 23
Problems 2	p. 25
A Day at the Races	p. 27
Kinds of Probability	p. 27
Betting on a Horse	p. 29
The Best Conditions for a Punter	p. 33
Problem 3	p. 35
Making Choices and Selections	p. 37
Children Leaving a Room	p. 37
Picking a Team	p. 39
Choosing an Email Username	p. 42
The UK National Lottery	p. 43
Problems 4	p. 47
Non-Intuitive Examples of Probability	p. 49
The Birthday Problem	p. 49
Crown and Anchor	p. 53
To Switch or not to Switch, that is the Question	p. 56
Problems 5	p. 58
Probability and Health	p. 59
Finding the Best Treatment	p. 59
Testing Drugs	p. 62
Problems 6	p. 68
Combining Probabilities: The Craps Game Revealed	p. 71
A Simple Probability Machine	p. 71
Pontoon: A Card Game	p. 74
The Thrower's Chance of Winning at American Craps	p. 76
Problems 7	p. 79
The UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice and Crooked Wheels	p. 81
The Need to Test for Fairness	p. 81
Testing Random Numbers	p. 83
The UK National Lottery	p. 87
American Craps with Loaded Dice	p. 89
Testing for a Loaded Die	p. 94
The Roulette Wheel	p. 96
Problems 8	p. 98
Block Diagrams	p. 101
Variation in Almost Everything	p. 101
A Shoe Manufacturer	p. 102
Histogram Shapes	p. 105
Lofty and Shorty	p. 107
Problem 9	p. 110
The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution	p. 111
Probability Distributions	p. 111
The Normal Distribution	p. 113
The Variance and Standard Deviation	p. 115
Properties of Normal Distributions	p. 117
A Little Necessary Mathematics	p. 119
Some special numbers	p. 119
Powers of numbers	p. 120
The Form of the Normal Distribution	p. 122
Random and Systematic Errors	p. 123
Some Examples of the Normal Distribution	p. 125
Electric light bulbs	p. 125
People on trolleys and under-used resources	p. 126
Problems 10	p. 128
Statistics: The Collection and Analysis of Numerical Data	p. 129
Too Much Information	p. 129
Another Way of Finding the Variance	p. 130
From Regional to National Statistics	p. 131
Problems 11	p. 133
The Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse Kicks	p. 135
Rare Events	p. 135
Typing a Manuscript	p. 137
The Poisson Distribution as a Formula	p. 139
Death by Horse Kicks	p. 141
Some Other Examples of the Poisson Distribution	p. 143
Flying Bomb Attacks on London	p. 143
Clustering of a disease	p. 145
Some further examples	p. 146
Problems 12	p. 147
Predicting Voting Patterns	p. 149
Election Polls	p. 149
Polling Statistics	p. 150
Combining Polling Samples	p. 153
Polling with More than Two Parties	p. 154
Factors Affecting Polls and Voting	p. 156
Problems 13	p. 158
Taking Samples: How Many Fish in the Pond?	p. 159
Why Do we Sample?	p. 159
Finding out from Samples	p. 160
An Illustrative Example	p. 162
General Comments on Sampling	p. 164
Quality Control	p. 164
How Many Fish in the Pond?	p. 167
Problems 14	p. 168
Differences: Rats and IQs	p. 171
The Significance of Differences	p. 171
Significantly Different - So What!	p. 173
Problem 15	p. 176
Crime is Increasing and Decreasing	p. 177
Crime and the Reporting of Crime	p. 177
The Trend for Overall Crime in England and Wales	p. 178
Vehicle Crime, Burglary and Violent Crime	p. 180
Homicide	p. 183
Crime and Politicians	p. 185
Problem 16	p. 186
My Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a Day	p. 189
Genetics and Disease	p. 189
The Incidence of Smoking in the UK	p. 191
The Smoking Lottery	p. 193
Problem 17	p. 195
Chance, Luck and Making Decisions	p. 197
The Winds of Chance	p. 197
Choices	p. 200
I Want a Lucky General	p. 201
To Fight or not to Fight, that is the Question	p. 203
The Mathematics of War	p. 206
Problem 18	p. 210
Science and Society	p. 211
What is Science?	p. 212
Meteorology and Butterflies	p. 214
A demonstration of chaos	p. 215
Meteorological forecasting	p. 218
Global Warming	p. 223
The greenhouse effect	p. 224
Greenhouse gases	p. 228
The evidence for global warming	p. 229
The controversy	p. 232
Can we know for certain?	p. 233
Better safe than sorry	p. 237
Nuclear Power Generation	p. 239
Decision-Making without Hard Data	p. 242
Problem 19	p. 244
The Pensions Problem	p. 245
A History of Life Expectancy	p. 245
Supporting the Aged, and Others	p. 249
The Age Structure of Populations	p. 252
The Arithmetic of Pensions	p. 254
Problem 20	p. 258
Solutions to Problems	p. 259
Index	p. 275
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

Everyday Probability and Statistics

Health, Elections, Gambling and War (2nd Edition)

At a Glance

Hardcover

Shipping

How to return your order

Defective items

You Can Find This Book In

Other Editions and Formats

Paperback

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