| Preface | p. xi |
| Acknowledgements | p. xiii |
| List of Permissions | p. xiv |
| Defining and exploring the key questions | p. 1 |
| Global changes present and past | p. 1 |
| Earth-system science | p. 2 |
| The key issues: a preliminary analysis | p. 9 |
| Scientific methodologies | p. 13 |
| Linking methodologies | p. 16 |
| The thematic sequence | p. 17 |
| An introduction to models and modelling | p. 19 |
| The role and rationale for modelling | p. 19 |
| Some essential generic concepts in climate and Earth-system modelling | p. 20 |
| Climate and Earth-system models of varying complexity | p. 28 |
| Subsystem models, with special reference to the oceans | p. 30 |
| The palaeo-record: approaches, timeframes and chronology | p. 34 |
| Introduction | p. 34 |
| Alternative approaches to the palaeo-record | p. 35 |
| The Vostok timeframe | p. 36 |
| Chronology - subdivisions, tuning and dating | p. 37 |
| Temporal resolution | p. 49 |
| The Palaeo-record: archives, proxies and calibration | p. 50 |
| Instrumental and documentary archives of past environmental change | p. 50 |
| Environmental archives and proxies | p. 54 |
| Sources of evidence for patterns of external climate forcing | p. 64 |
| Reconstructing past changes in the world's oceans | p. 67 |
| Reconstructing past impacts resulting from climate change and human activities | p. 71 |
| The multi-proxy approach | p. 73 |
| Glacial and interglacial worlds | p. 74 |
| Key aspects of past variability | p. 74 |
| Forcings, feedbacks and phasing | p. 78 |
| Marine isotope stage 5e and the last (Eemian)interglacial | p. 86 |
| Rapid climate oscillations during the last glacial period | p. 88 |
| The last glacial maximum (LGM) | p. 94 |
| The transition from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene | p. 97 |
| The temperature record at each pole | p. 97 |
| Spatial patterns of temperature change | p. 99 |
| Changes in continental hydrology | p. 102 |
| Dynamics, forcing and feedbacks | p. 103 |
| Transitions and feedbacks - deglaciation in the context of longer-term changes | p. 110 |
| Glacial-Interglacial changes and the modern world | p. 117 |
| The Holocene | p. 118 |
| The transition to the Holocene | p. 118 |
| Patterns of overall climate change during the Holocene | p. 119 |
| The early Holocene: delays, interruptions and biosphere feedbacks | p. 122 |
| Major hydrological changes - a green then a brown Sahara | p. 125 |
| Modes of variability | p. 128 |
| El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) | p. 129 |
| The North Atlantic (NAO) and other oscillations | p. 134 |
| Examples of changing extremes | p. 137 |
| The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age | p. 139 |
| Signs of earlier synchronous changes from the mid Holocene onwards | p. 142 |
| External forcing | p. 143 |
| Feedbacks | p. 146 |
| Concluding comments | p. 150 |
| The Anthropocene - a changing atmosphere | p. 152 |
| The idea of the Anthropocene | p. 152 |
| Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases | p. 153 |
| Atmospheric aerosols | p. 162 |
| Chlorofluorocarbons and Ozone | p. 165 |
| Other atmospheric contaminants | p. 167 |
| Summary and conclusions | p. 168 |
| The Anthropocene - changing land | p. 169 |
| Changed global nutrient cycles | p. 169 |
| Deforestation | p. 171 |
| Land degradation and desertification | p. 173 |
| The long-term palaeo-perspective | p. 174 |
| The Anthropocene: changing aquatic environments and ecosystems | p. 179 |
| Introduction | p. 179 |
| Changes in lake-water chemistry | p. 179 |
| Other hydrological changes - rivers and groundwater | p. 183 |
| Coastal and marine impacts | p. 186 |
| Changing biodiversity | p. 190 |
| Extinctions | p. 190 |
| Species diversity | p. 192 |
| Consequences for ecosystem function | p. 193 |
| Detection and attribution | p. 197 |
| Introduction | p. 197 |
| Detection and attribution - context and distinctions | p. 197 |
| Detection - a warming world | p. 199 |
| Rising sea-level | p. 205 |
| Ecosystem responses | p. 212 |
| Attribution | p. 217 |
| Concluding comments | p. 227 |
| Future global mean temperatures and sea-level | p. 229 |
| Future changes in global mean temperature | p. 229 |
| Future global mean sea-level | p. 240 |
| The longer term - are there 'surprises' round the corner? | p. 242 |
| Concluding comments and questions arising | p. 245 |
| From the global to the specific | p. 247 |
| Introduction | p. 247 |
| Future precipitation, evaporation and runoff | p. 248 |
| Modelling monsoons and ENSO | p. 252 |
| Circum-Arctic climates | p. 254 |
| High-resolution simulations | p. 255 |
| Floods in the future | p. 258 |
| Future droughts | p. 259 |
| Impacts and vulnerability | p. 262 |
| Introduction | p. 262 |
| Sectoral impacts and impacts on ecosystems | p. 263 |
| Impacts, risk and vulnerability assessment | p. 275 |
| Sceptics, responses and partial answers | p. 279 |
| Introduction | p. 279 |
| Some sceptical science-based arguments | p. 280 |
| Some non-scientific assertions | p. 285 |
| Key questions and some tentative responses | p. 286 |
| A personal perspective on mitigation and adaptation | p. 289 |
| A final key issue | p. 291 |
| References | p. 296 |
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