Introduction 1
About This Book 1
Conventions Used in This Book 2
Foolish Assumptions 3
What Not to Read 4
How the Book Is Organized 4
Part I: Figuring Out the Economy 4
Part II: Making Money, Spending Money: Employment and Consumer Indicators 4
Part III: The Essence of Business: Product and Service Indicators 5
Part IV: Inflation, Productivity, Interest Rates, and Commodities: Oh My! 5
Part V: International Intrigue: Indicators beyond the United States 5
Part VI: The Part of Tens 6
Icons Used in This Book 6
Where to Go from Here 6
Part I: Figuring Out the Economy 7
Chapter 1: Introducing Economic Indicators 9
Understanding What Economic Indicators Are 10
Reading the economy through economic indicators 10
Cycling through economic ups and downs 11
Identifying What Indicators Indicate 12
Tracking consumer spending 12
Looking at the big picture 13
Eyeing manufacturing 14
Counting up the number of bought, sold, and newly built homes 15
Monitoring inflation 15
Measuring productivity 16
Looking at loans and commodity purchases 16
Following worldwide economies 17
Knowing How to Start Following Economic Indicators 18
Analyzing the data 19
Tracking economic indicator release dates 19
Chapter 2: Explaining Economic Jargon 21
Identifying Types of Economic Indicators 21
Summarizing economic results 22
Surveying for information 22
Indexing the economy 24
Understanding How Economists Analyze the Data 27
Measuring growth 27
Annualizing reported data 29
Smoothing data with moving averages 32
Massaging Economic Data to Make the Results More Useful 35
Adjusting for inflation 35
Adjusting for seasonal fluctuations 37
Considering the Timeliness of Economic Indicators 37
Leading indicators make forecasts 38
Coincident indicators are no coincidence 38
Lagging indicators can’t foretell the future 39
Looking into the Future with Consensus Forecasts 39
Finding consensus forecasts 40
Analyzing the accuracy of the consensus 40
Amending and Modifying Data with Revision Reports 41
Revising previous reports 41
Changing benchmarks 42
Cha-Ching: Money, Interest Rates, and the Economy 43
Understanding the Fed’s monetary measures 43
Setting short- and long-term interest rates 44
Chapter 3: Understanding the Big Picture: The Economy and Its Footprints 45
Taking a Closer Look at the Business Cycle 46
Identifying the phases of the cycle 46
Growing into expansion 49
Slowing into recession 49
Reviewing the Key Financial Markets 50
Investing in stocks 50
Holding bonds 53
Trading commodities 55
Tracking currencies 56
Figuring Out What’s What in Economic Reports 57
Finding what’s important in each report 58
Seeing how reports are assembled 59
Showing Economic Fashions without the Runway 59
Understanding market sensitivity 60
Determining an indicator’s accuracy and timeliness 61
Seeing who’s interested in what 61
Part II: Making Money, Spending Money: Employment and Consumer Indicators 65
Chapter 4: Counting Jobs and Unemployment 67
Tracking the BLS Employment Situation Report 68
Counting workers and the unemployed 68
Highlighting key parts of the jobs report 73
Deciphering employment numbers 75
Predicting market reactions due to employment changes 77
Looking at Unemployment Insurance Claims 79
Keeping track of unemployment insurance claims 80
Smoothing jobless claim fluctuations 81
Analyzing the claims numbers 82
Determining how the market may react to increased claims 82
Eyeing the ADP National Employment Report ® 84
Reviewing key parts of ADP’s jobs report 85
Comparing the ADP and BLS reports 86
Figuring out how the market will react to the ADP report 87
Advertising for Jobs: The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index 88
Measuring the availability of jobs online 88
Predicting how the market will react 89
Collecting the BLS Mass Layoff Statistics Report 90
Surfing Monster Employment Indexes 91
Chapter 5: Survey Says: Considering Consumer Sentiment, Confidence, and Comfort 93
Trying to Figure Out Consumers 94
Surveying UM’s Consumer Sentiment Index 95
Eyeing the importance of this index 95
Considering the consumer’s expectations 96
Correlating consumer sentiment and spending: What the data mean 97
Looking for unexpected changes 99
Knowing how the markets will react 100
Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index 100
Seeing how people feel about the economy 101
Looking for happy consumers 103
Comparing and contrasting surveys 103
Finding surprises in the confidence survey 106
Adjusting your portfolio strategy 107
Reviewing the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 108
Justifying another consumer survey: What makes this one unique 109
Correlating comfort, recovery, and recession 109
Modifying your portfolio strategy 112
Chapter 6: Spreading the Wealth: Consumer Spending and the Economy 113
Making and Spending: The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays Report 113
Tracking personal wages, savings, and purchases 115
Highlighting consumers’ economic impact: The wealth effect 122
Identifying the relationship between spending, income, and the economy 122
Reacting to surprising results 123
Surveying Retail Sales: The Census Bureau’s Retail Trade Report 124
Highlighting product purchases 125
Monitoring spending trends 126
Investing based on the survey results 127
How Much Consumers Borrow: The Consumer Credit Outstanding Report 128
Tracking Online Sales: The Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report 130
Part III: The Essence of Business: Product and Service Indicators 133
Chapter 7: GDP: The Whole Enchilada 135
Grasping What the GDP Report Is 135
Breaking down the GDP schedule 136
Finding the economy’s growth rate 137
Counting products and services in the GDP 140
Highlighting the GDP’s Importance 142
Declaring recessions and recoveries 143
Surveying how businesses use the GDP 144
Understanding how the government uses the GDP 144
Eyeing how investors use the GDP 145
Knowing How the GDP Is Calculated 147
Measuring personal consumption 149
Tracking private investments 150
Counting government consumption 152
Monitoring imports and exports 152
Purchasing and selling domestic products 153
Seeing How GDP Is Adjusted for Inflation 154
Chaining dollars to inflation 155
Comparing GDP price indexes over time 156
Chapter 8: Following the Fed 161
Understanding the Fed’s Role 161
Outlining the Fed’s basic structure 162
Understanding central banking 163
Digging into monetary policy 164
Reading the Fed’s FOMC Statement 166
Eyeing why this report is important 167
Forecasting the future with the FOMC 167
Reacting to the FOMC Statement 168
Boring into the Beige Book 170
Monitoring Manufacturing with the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report 171
Seeing what the report measures 172
Correlating output, capacity, and growth 174
Repositioning your portfolio 176
Reviewing Regional Fed Reports 179
Surveying business outlook 180
Indexing national activity 181
Chapter 9: Profiling Manufacturing: New Orders and Shipments 185
Filling Orders for Durable Goods: The Advance Report on Durable Goods 185
Knowing where the data come from 186
Tracking new factory orders: Why these stats are important 187
Figuring out what the data mean 188
Correlating manufacturing and future growth 191
Manufacturing your portfolio response 193
Monitoring Factory Orders and Sales: The Factory Orders Report 195
Comparing the full and advance versions 196
Investing in the full report 197
Counting Business Inventories: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report 198
Chapter 10: Grappling with Economic Indexes 201
Measuring ISM’s Manufacturing Survey 201
Understanding how the ISM surveys purchasing agents 202
Checking the health of manufacturers 203
Surveying purchasing managers’ insights for the PMI 206
Monitoring market movement 206
Gauging Non-Manufacturing Companies 208
Looking At the Leading Economic Index 210
Chapter 11: Spending on Housing and Residential Construction 213
Growing the Economy One House at a Time 214
Realizing the relationship between housing and GDP 214
Understanding U.S housing demand 216
Counting One Start at a Time: The New Residential Construction Report 217
Eyeing the data: Where the stats come from 217
Monitoring building permits and other housing stats 219
Correlating housing and economic activity 221
Remodeling your investment portfolio 222
Reporting New-Home Sales: The New Residential Sales Report 223
Comparing new starts with new sales: Is it possible? 224
Recognizing the connection between new-home sales and the economic cycle 226
Forecasting investment market reactions 226
Reporting Existing-Home Sales 227
Tracking housing prices 229
Understanding how existing-home sales affect investment markets 230
Monitoring Pending Home Sales 231
Surveying Mortgages 233
Eyeing what data you get at no cost 234
Tracking delinquent mortgages 234
Identifying potential market changes 235
Pricing the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices 236
Part IV: Inflation, Productivity, Interest Rates, and Commodities: Oh My! 239
Chapter 12: Determining Inflation’s Economic Impact 241
Gauging Inflation from the Consumer’s View: The Consumer Price Index 242
Eyeing the parts of the CPI 242
In a basket: How CPI is measured 244
Understanding why inflation matters 247
Seeing the different reactions to inflation and the CPI 248
Inflating investment returns 251
Using Manufacturing Costs to Measure Inflation: The Producer Price Index 252
Comparing the PPI and CPI 253
Inflating the price of business supplies 254
Correlating the PPI and economic growth 255
Showing PPI’s investment market impact 256
Tracking Inflation through Labor Costs: The Employment Cost Index 258
Monitoring and tracking labor costs 258
Seeing how the Fed uses the ECI 259
Employing labor costs in investment analysis 260
Chapter 13: Taking a Closer Look at Productivity and Economic Growth 261
Measuring Productivity and Costs: The Labor Productivity and Costs Report 262
Defining productivity 263
Correlating productivity to job growth and costs 266
Producing investment returns 267
Watching Employee Compensation Costs: The ECEC Report 268
Monitoring labor costs 270
Using labor costs to improve investments 270
Calculating What Workers Really Make: The Real Earnings Report 272
Chapter 14: Eyeing Business and Municipal Borrowing in the Bond Market 273
Simplifying the Fixed-Income Market 274
Showing Some Interest in Interest 275
Grasping how interest rates are set 275
Determining risk 276
Finding Current Interest Rates: The Selected Interest Rates Report 277
Taming the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) Spread 281
Following the Treasury Yield Curve 282
Interpreting the yield curve 282
Identifying how the curve can look and what the shapes mean 283
Seeing the Bond Market’s Impact on the Rest of the Market 286
Yielding interesting returns 286
Investing in yield 286
Forecasting the currency’s value 287
Chapter 15: Harvesting Commodity Data 289
Understanding Commodities: Focusing on Supply and Demand 290
Paying cash upfront: Cash markets 290
Specifying the purchase terms before you buy: Forward contracts 291
Bidding for a price: Futures markets 292
Delving into Commodities Reports 293
Digging for gold and other precious metals 293
Drilling into the energy markets 295
Growing the agricultural markets 299
Mining industrial metals 301
Pricing Commodities 302
Finding spot prices 302
Finding futures prices 303
Tracking Commodity Indexes 304
Following Standard & Poor’s GSCI 304
Digging into the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index 306
Reading The Economist’s commodity index 307
Surveying the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Indexes 308
Part V: International Intrigue: Indicators beyond the United States 309
Chapter 16: Trading with the United States 311
Tracking Trade: U.S International Trade in Goods and Service Report 312
Reporting U.S exports and imports 313
Finding more trade data in the supplemental tables and online 321
Correlating trade and economic growth 321
Trading information for investment returns 322
Figuring Out the Balance of Trade 323
Following the TIC (Treasury International Capital) System 323
Chapter 17: Following Economies Worldwide 325
Investing in Overseas Markets 325
Using Reliable Sources to Find Info on International Indicators 328
Surveying purchasing managers globally 329
Surveying purchasing managers in Europe 329
Tracking the German Economy 330
Measuring German productivity 331
Surveying German businesses 334
Tracking the Japanese Economy 336
Surveying Japanese businesses 336
Measuring Japan’s productivity 340
Tracking China’s Economy 341
Chapter 18: Monitoring Emerging Economies 345
Following Emerging Markets 345
Seeing the world through Google’s Public Data Explorer 346
Using other sources to track emerging markets 347
Monitoring India’s Economy 347
Following India’s economic progress 348
Anticipating India’s future growth 349
Following Brazil’s Economic Future 350
Summarizing Brazil’s economy 350
Understanding Brazil’s inflation issue 352
Part VI: The Part of Tens 353
Chapter 19: Ten Ways to Track the U.S. Economy 355
Monitoring Jobs and Employment Data 356
Accounting for Consumer Spending 357
Checking Up on Businesses 357
Showing an Interest in Interest Rates 358
Building on Housing and Construction 358
Following Inflation 359
Surveying Consumers 360
Following the GDP 360
Chapter 20: Ten (Or So) Money-Making Tips You Can Use with Economic Indicators 361
Finding the Big Picture: Distinguishing between Bull and Bear Markets 361
Tracking Sector Rotation 363
Following the Herd 364
Taking Three Steps, Then a Stumble 364
Balancing Your Portfolio 364
Investing Strategically 365
Taking Your Investments Abroad 365
Avoiding Big Investment Mistakes 366
Avoiding Analysis Paralysis 366
Glossary 367
Index 375
