| Introduction | p. 1 |
| What is a Stochastic System? | p. 1 |
| Bibliography | p. 5 |
| Some Probability Theory | p. 7 |
| Introduction | p. 7 |
| Random Variables and Distributions | p. 7 |
| Basic Concepts | p. 7 |
| Gaussian Distributions | p. 11 |
| Correlation and Dependence | p. 12 |
| Conditional Distributions | p. 12 |
| The Conditional Mean for Gaussian Variables | p. 14 |
| Complex-Valued Gaussian Variables | p. 17 |
| The Scalar Case | p. 17 |
| The Multivariate Case | p. 19 |
| The Rayleigh Distribution | p. 24 |
| Exercises | p. 26 |
| Bibliography | p. 27 |
| Models | p. 29 |
| Introduction | p. 29 |
| Stochastic Processes | p. 30 |
| Markov Processes and the Concept of State | p. 33 |
| Covariance Function and Spectrum | p. 36 |
| Bispectrum | p. 46 |
| Appendix. Linear Complex-Valued Signals and Systems | p. 48 |
| Complex-Valued Model of a Narrow-Band Signal | p. 48 |
| Linear Complex-Valued Systems | p. 49 |
| Appendix. Markov Chains | p. 51 |
| Exercises | p. 55 |
| Bibliography | p. 58 |
| Analysis | p. 59 |
| Introduction | p. 59 |
| Linear Filtering | p. 59 |
| Transfer Function Models | p. 59 |
| State Space Models | p. 61 |
| Yule-Walker Equations | p. 67 |
| Spectral Factorization | p. 71 |
| Transfer Function Models | p. 71 |
| State Space Models | p. 74 |
| An Example | p. 78 |
| Continuous-time Models | p. 80 |
| Covariance Function and Spectra | p. 80 |
| Spectral Factorization | p. 81 |
| White Noise | p. 82 |
| Wiener Processes | p. 83 |
| State Space Models | p. 84 |
| Sampling Stochastic Models | p. 86 |
| Introduction | p. 86 |
| State Space Models | p. 87 |
| Aliasing | p. 88 |
| The Positive Real Part of the Spectrum | p. 90 |
| ARM A Processes | p. 90 |
| State Space Models | p. 95 |
| Continuous-time Processes | p. 98 |
| Effect of Linear Filtering on the Bispectrum | p. 99 |
| Algorithms for Covariance Calculations and Sampling | p. 103 |
| ARMA Covariance Function | p. 103 |
| ARMA Cross-Covariance Function | p. 105 |
| Continuous-Time Covariance Function | p. 107 |
| Sampling | p. 108 |
| Solving the Lyapunov Equation | p. 110 |
| Appendix. Auxiliary Lemmas | p. 111 |
| Exercises | p. 114 |
| Bibliography | p. 121 |
| Optimal Estimation | p. 123 |
| Introduction | p. 123 |
| The Conditional Mean | p. 123 |
| The Linear Least Mean Square Estimate | p. 126 |
| Propagation of the Conditional Probability Density Function | p. 128 |
| Relation to Maximum Likelihood Estimation | p. 130 |
| Appendix. A Lemma for Optimality of the Conditional Mean | p. 133 |
| Exercises | p. 134 |
| Bibliography | p. 135 |
| Optimal State Estimation for Linear Systems | p. 137 |
| Introduction | p. 137 |
| The Linear Least Mean Square One-Step Prediction and Filter Estimates | p. 138 |
| The Conditional Mean | p. 145 |
| Optimal Filtering and Prediction | p. 147 |
| Smoothing | p. 148 |
| Fixed Point Smoothing | p. 149 |
| Fixed Lag Smoothing | p. 150 |
| Maximum a posteriori Estimates | p. 153 |
| The Stationary Case | p. 155 |
| Algorithms for Solving the Algebraic Riccati Equation | p. 159 |
| Introduction | p. 159 |
| An Algorithm Based on the Euler Matrix | p. 161 |
| Appendix. Proofs | p. 165 |
| The Matrix Inversion Lemma | p. 165 |
| Proof of Theorem 6.1 | p. 166 |
| Two Determinant Results | p. 171 |
| Exercises | p. 171 |
| Bibliography | p. 182 |
| Optimal Estimation for Linear Systems by Polynomial Methods | p. 185 |
| Introduction | p. 185 |
| Optimal Prediction | p. 185 |
| Introduction | p. 185 |
| Optimal Prediction of ARMA Processes | p. 187 |
| A General Case | p. 191 |
| Prediction of Nonstationary Processes | p. 193 |
| Wiener Filters | p. 194 |
| Statement of the Problem | p. 194 |
| The Unrealizable Wiener Filter | p. 196 |
| The Realizable Wiener Filter | p. 197 |
| Illustration | p. 199 |
| Algorithmic Aspects | p. 200 |
| The Causal Part of a Filter, Partial Fraction Decomposition and a Diophantine Equation | p. 202 |
| Minimum Variance Filters | p. 205 |
| Introduction | p. 205 |
| Solution | p. 206 |
| The Estimation Error | p. 207 |
| Extensions | p. 209 |
| Illustrations | p. 211 |
| Robustness Against Modelling Errors | p. 215 |
| Exercises | p. 218 |
| Bibliography | p. 220 |
| Illustration of Optimal Linear Estimation | p. 223 |
| Introduction | p. 223 |
| Spectral Factorization | p. 223 |
| Optimal Prediction | p. 225 |
| Optimal Filtering | p. 227 |
| Optimal Smoothing | p. 228 |
| Estimation Error Variance | p. 232 |
| Weighting Pattern | p. 234 |
| Frequency Characteristics | p. 235 |
| Exercises | p. 242 |
| Nonlinear Filtering | p. 245 |
| Introduction | p. 245 |
| Extended Kaiman Filters | p. 245 |
| The Basic Algorithm | p. 245 |
| An Iterated Extended Kaiman Filter | p. 247 |
| A Second-order Extended Kaiman Filter | p. 248 |
| An Example | p. 250 |
| Gaussian Sum Estimators | p. 254 |
| The Multiple Model Approach | p. 257 |
| Introduction | p. 257 |
| Fixed Models | p. 257 |
| Switching Models | p. 259 |
| Interacting Multiple Models Algorithm | p. 260 |
| Monte Carlo Methods for Propagating the Conditional Probability Density Functions | p. 265 |
| Quantized Measurements | p. 269 |
| Median Filters | p. 270 |
| Introduction | p. 270 |
| Step Response | p. 271 |
| Response to Sinusoids | p. 272 |
| Effect on Noise | p. 273 |
| Appendix. Auxiliary results | p. 277 |
| Analysis of the Sheppard Correction | p. 277 |
| Some Probability Density Functions | p. 280 |
| Exercises | p. 281 |
| Bibliography | p. 294 |
| Introduction to Optimal Stochastic Control | p. 297 |
| Introduction | p. 297 |
| Some Simple Examples | p. 297 |
| Introduction | p. 297 |
| Deterministic System | p. 297 |
| Random Time Constant | p. 298 |
| Noisy Observations | p. 299 |
| Process Noise | p. 300 |
| Unknown Time Constants and Measurement Noise | p. 300 |
| Unknown Gain | p. 301 |
| Mathematical Preliminaries | p. 303 |
| Dynamic Programming | p. 304 |
| Deterministic Systems | p. 305 |
| Stochastic Systems | p. 306 |
| Some Stochastic Controllers | p. 311 |
| Dual Control | p. 313 |
| Certainty Equivalence Control | p. 313 |
| Cautious Control | p. 314 |
| Exercises | p. 316 |
| Bibliography | p. 317 |
| Linear Quadratic Gaussian Control | p. 319 |
| Introduction | p. 319 |
| The Optimal Controllers | p. 320 |
| Optimal Control of Deterministic Systems | p. 320 |
| Optimal Control with Complete State Information | p. 323 |
| Optimal Control with Incomplete State Information | p. 324 |
| Duality Between Estimation and Control | p. 326 |
| Closed Loop System Properties | p. 328 |
| Representations of the Regulator | p. 328 |
| Representations of the Closed Loop System | p. 329 |
| The Closed Loop Poles | p. 331 |
| Linear Quadratic Gaussian Design by Polynomial Methods | p. 332 |
| Problem Formulation | p. 332 |
| Minimum Variance Control | p. 333 |
| The General Case | p. 337 |
| Controller Design by Linear Quadratic Gaussian Theory | p. 344 |
| Introduction | p. 344 |
| Choice of Observer Poles | p. 351 |
| Appendix. Derivation of the Optimal Linear Quadratic Gaus-sian Feedback and the Riccati Equation from the Bellman Equation | p. 360 |
| Exercises | p. 362 |
| Bibliography | p. 364 |
| Answers to Selected Exercises | p. 367 |
| Index | p. 373 |
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